TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

#81 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:37 am

The 12Z GFS just ran and it kinda loses it in the SE Gulf. I knew the run last night bringing it to Florida looked fishy? The 500 pattern shows high over Florida and weakness over the mid and lower Texas Coast. If it survives and stays far enough south South Texas and Mexico would be a good bet. Waiting on the canadian model.

#82 Postby **Bailey1777** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:38 am

If it survives the Western Caribbean this will be a Western Gulf player. Ridge is going to be there. (IMO)

Aquawind · #83 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:38 am

Ernie--lol

You Lippin Ernesto to be? :lol:

hicksta · #84 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:39 am

Yall, what are the models showingggg

#85 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:40 am

Bailey1777 wrote:If it survives the Western Caribbean this will be a Western Gulf player. Ridge is going to be there. (IMO)

I don't know this summer has featured EC troughs and lack of ridging.....I would be surprised if it makes it into the Western GOM....

#86 Postby **Bailey1777** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:41 am

Only 1 minute apart I was typing at the same time, I'm not piggybacking.

ConvergenceZone · #87 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:46 am

Bailey1777 wrote:If it survives the Western Caribbean this will be a Western Gulf player. Ridge is going to be there. (IMO)

yep if I had to guess now , it looks like texas this time or EXTREME north mexico, but that's based upon what I'm seeing now...

#88 Postby **Wthrman13** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:46 am

Looking at the latest visible loops, I see a small swirl becoming exposed on the NW side of the circulation. It appears to be embedded within a larger circulation that is more or less centered underneath the convection. The system has so far been able to avoid the high shear zone to its west. It will be critical how fast that UL moves to the west, taking the shear with it, whether TD 5 even survives or not, let alone develops further. Right now it's holding its own.

#89 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:47 am

I can buy south S Texas/Mexico

Wx_Warrior · #90 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:48 am

Intersting...roller coast tix for the Texas Cyclone are now being sold!

#91 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:48 am

Guys I just don't see the big ridge that is supposed to steer TD #5 all the way west ....look at this loop of the NW Atlantic showing very little ridging and now there is a possible low forming off a cold front off Georgia.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

I'm leaning more towards the GFDL solution which has been good this summer with the synoptic pattern. The GFDL takes it into the SE GOM/Cuba/FL Straits.

#92 Postby **angelwing** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:48 am

I just checked this current thread and do not see any current model plots, if someone could post them I would appreciate it, thanks!

ConvergenceZone · #93 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:49 am

I noticed that the last discussion didn't mention dissipation like it did the previous one. That's interesting. I guess they really believe the shear will decrease, and they may be right.

#94 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:50 am

gatorcane wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:If it survives the Western Caribbean this will be a Western Gulf player. Ridge is going to be there. (IMO)

I don't know this summer has featured EC troughs and lack of ridging.....I would be surprised if it makes it into the Western GOM....

Well, up to this point during the summer of '06, there's been plenty of mean ridging present along and adjacent to the central Gulf Coast (Anyone here notice how many storms, both large and small, have moved from north to south or east to west this summer?) Its forecasted presence this summer was one of the factors those brave souls hardy enough to go out on a limb with seasonal landfall forecasts indicated as being a key factor in likely steering systems west toward Texas or keeping them well to our south and away from areas devastated last year.

Time'll tell.

#95 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:51 am

angelwing wrote:I just checked this current thread and do not see any current model plots, if someone could post them I would appreciate it, thanks!

#96 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:51 am

Man...they're are just too many questions! From pros an amateurs alike we're hearing that it's on a downward spiral, or it's getting better organized....or it won't survive the shear...or we may be looking at a major in the gulf. Wow what a lot of different opinions.

IMO, the next 24 - 36 hours will be the most crucial period for TD5.

#97 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:53 am

The next 36 hours will be important. If upper low to the west of it gets out of the way in time it will make it. If not it could get sheared apart. The new European model will be out around 3 or so. Still think it's a Western Gulf problem

#98 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:53 am

Looks very interesting this afternoon.

Sanibel · #99 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:54 am

Looking at the latest visible loops, I see a small swirl becoming exposed on the NW side of the circulation. It appears to be embedded within a larger circulation that is more or less centered underneath the convection. The system has so far been able to avoid the high shear zone to its west. It will be critical how fast that UL moves to the west, taking the shear with it, whether TD 5 even survives or not, let alone develops further. Right now it's holding its own.

This is important because that swirl is either the LLC outrunning the main convection (weakening) or a satellite vortex. If it is the LLC, the storm is moving more WNW.

#100 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:54 am

Plane is out there now, should know more in an hour or so.

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

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