Would a Fla west coast landfall be impossible..?

[cinlfla]

This morning it begins to look less like Ivan and more like Charley. The NHC has put everyone on notice that it is hard to predict track when there is a trough/ridge situation.

Floridas friends may only be land interaction and shear just before landfall if the current forecast holds.

I was thinking the same thing I wasn't excepting this that's for sure. I surly thought the models would start to trend more west over night but Holy Smokes this is crazy

[Josephine96]

Bet ya my Wal Mart's gonna already be chaotic today..

[TampaFl]

Boy, what a rude awakening when I sat down in front of the computer this morningand nearly chocked on my first sip of coffee. I bet many along the SW & West Coast of FL are doing the same this morning. What a dramatica change from 11:00PM last night till this morning.

Bottom line is every one needs to start and review their hurricane preparations and family plans for the potential cat 2 - 3 hurricane affecting the SW & West Coast of FL. later this week. Looks like I will be working alot of overtime starting Monday.


Plan for the worst and hope for the best.


Robert

[kenl01]

I must say, this is, of course, the right time of year for this type of thing. Late August, conditions are supposed to get more favorable, and the most unfortunate situation is that the ULL to Ernesto's west moved away, allowing for intensification and less shear. Little or no shear is the key, unfortunately.
However, we sure could use more rain here along the SC inland coastal counties as Ernesto possibly moves just to our East, but if it turns right too quickly, we won't experience too much in the way of lasting heavy rains as it crosses North FL and emerges into the Atlantic. It HAS TO go a little more west for it to moves over the SE coast, at which time it should be downgraded to a cat 1. The wind wouldn't be a big deal around here (maybe East 35 to 50mph, higher gusts) if it turns more to the right of the projected track............

Hopefully people in Florida will be safe............

[Nimbus]

I doubt the shopping rush will start yet, the track change came from a single 5AM update.

Looking at the water vapor imagery you can see the ULL over Colorado rolling east, but the upper high building down over Florida could persist longer than the models are forecasting. Also the center has been reforming in different locations and we have not had a consistant eye to track till recently.

Wait and see, perhaps they will start sweeping the track back west again once they have new upper air data?

Looks like a powerful storm in the gulf so the preparations need to start early all along the coast.

[johngaltfla]

I don't like to eat crow, but if you could, please make mine a CROW PIZZA with extra pepperoni and mushrooms.

This looks alot like Charley all over again. I honestly thought the high pressure would hold and steer this thing west.

[kenl01]

I doubt the shopping rush will start yet, the track change came from a single 5AM update.

Looking at the water vapor imagery you can see the ULL over Colorado rolling east, but the upper high building down over Florida could persist longer than the models are forecasting. Also the center has been reforming in different locations and we have not had a consistant eye to track till recently.

Wait and see, perhaps they will start sweeping the track back west again once they have new upper air data?

Looks like a powerful storm in the gulf so the preparations need to start early all along the coast.

I'll copy and paste that part (about the ULL over Colorado) and send it to my dad on an email, who has a rental house in Lady lake,FL, just south of Ocala.

I'll keep him posted thanks !

[TampaFl]

[jim09091]

Boy, what a rude awakening when I sat down in front of the computer this morningand nearly chocked on my first sip of coffee. I bet many along the SW & West Coast of FL are doing the same this morning. What a dramatica change from 11:00PM last night till this morning.

Yes, one heck of a change here. Like everyone else said, just another reason to keep your eyes open and always be prepared. Some of us remember Charley all too well and how it was supposed to hit north towards Tampa and took a last minute swing into our area!

[kenl01]

Boy, what a rude awakening when I sat down in front of the computer this morningand nearly chocked on my first sip of coffee. I bet many along the SW & West Coast of FL are doing the same this morning. What a dramatica change from 11:00PM last night till this morning.

Yes, one heck of a change here. Like everyone else said, just another reason to keep your eyes open and always be prepared. Some of us remember Charley all too well and how it was supposed to hit north towards Tampa and took a last minute swing into our area!

Don't you guys just hate this sorth of thing ? Sorry to hear that.......

[fox13weather]

Remember, there has been little or no model consistency from run to run and typically 5 day forecast points are off by more than 300 miles. A lot can and will change during the next few days. The motion has turned more to the NW this morning which means an adjustment to the track.

[dizzyfish]

This isn't what I wanted to see this morning! Think I'll take advantage of today and get hubby to help me move the swing in the back yard. Can't do that by myself and he's on 12 hour days right now.
Ya'll stay safe!!!

Dotty

*kicks Ernesto* and makes him go play in the Atlantic and spin fish.

[sweetpea]

What happened? I went to bed and it was supposed to come in by Pensacola I get up and he is exiting the state just about right over my head!!! I am sure that will change at least 5 more times by Friday.

Debbie

[O Town]

What happened? I went to bed and it was supposed to come in by Pensacola I get up and he is exiting the state just about right over my head!!! I am sure that will change at least 5 more times by Friday.

Debbie

Yes I was shocked as well. And like you said it will change a few more times, but it goes to show don't ever think you are in the clear. Now is the time to make sure you are prepared either with a evacuation plan or supplies depending on how far inland you are. I am heading to the gorcery today to get a few more gallons of water. We have about 15 gallons of gas for the generator, its better to be ready now. Everyone in the Gulf region needs to prepare NOW.

[birdwomn]

At least we still have plenty of time to prepare...and hope for Ernesto to die out or change track.

From here on out, we will need to keep our guard up.

[bcp]

I want to officially call out "Normandy" who essentially called "Josephine" an idiot for suggesting that a west coast Fla landfall, Now the NHC 5 day forecast track shows just that.

Where is Normandy??

[cajungal]

I watched Montel a few months back and psychic Sylvia Browne was on and she said she saw a very strong hurricane around Aug 26th riding the whole coast of Florida. Not very far off.

[cinlfla]

I watched Montel a few months back and psychic Sylvia Browne was on and she said she saw a very strong hurricane around Aug 26th riding the whole coast of Florida. Not very far off.

Your joking..... right?

[cajungal]

I watched Montel a few months back and psychic Sylvia Browne was on and she said she saw a very strong hurricane around Aug 26th riding the whole coast of Florida. Not very far off.

Your joking..... right?

Nope. I am very serious.

[SouthFloridawx]

No.. I'm not trying to wishcast this storm my way people.. Just curious.. I'm actually tempted to also give a forecast, but I'm afraid I'll get slammed..

Yes I say it is.... for now...