TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[skysummit]

skysummit, have any of the mets around your area mentioned the front affecting the track leading towards a more northerly course towards us in the latter part of the week?

Yes...it'll all depend on timing. There is a front forecasted to drop down, but they're not making a big deal out of it yet. They do say it ALL depends on timing of that front because at some point it'll have to turn north....whether it's when it's in the gulf or after it makes landfall...who knows.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2006



since the reconnaissance aircraft departed from the tropical
storm...convection has deepened and expanded...but is still
displaced mostly east of the low-level center. The UW-CIMSS shear
analyses estimate about 15 kts of westerly shear currently
affecting Ernesto with stronger shear to the northwest. It has
been a bit difficult to determine the low-level center location and
consequently the initial intensity based upon the Dvorak shear
pattern. Due to the deepening convection and data T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB ranging from 35 kt to 45 kt...the initial intensity
has been bumped up to 40 kt. Reconnaissance aircraft will be back
in to investigate Ernesto at 0600 UTC to get a better handle on the
current position and intensity.
The initial motion is 285/14. A low- to mid-level ridge across the
southwest Atlantic continues to steer Ernesto on a west-northwest
track and should continue to do so for the next 48 to 72 hours...and
the models are in tight agreement during this period. The track
forecast becomes a bit tricky on days 4 and 5...when a weakness in
the steering pattern develops across the central Gulf of Mexico
forecast by most of the models. The official track forecast keeps
Ernesto on a general northwestward track over the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently an upper-level low is situated over eastern Cuba and
Jamaica with strong west-southwesterly winds to its southeast.
Water vapor imagery indicates this upper-level low is moving rapidly
to the west-southwest...and the models are in close agreement that
the low should end up along the eastern coast of Mainland Mexico in
3 to 4 days. This scenario should provide a very weak shear
environment for Ernesto to strengthen...and in fact the SHIPS
guidance forecasts the shear to weaken considerably in 36-48 hours
and remain weak through day 5. The official intensity forecast
over the Gulf of Mexico is nudged upward...since most of the
intensity guidance indicates an even stronger intensity than shown
below.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 14.8n 69.1w 40 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 15.6n 71.1w 45 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 16.6n 73.7w 50 kt
36hr VT 27/1200z 17.8n 76.4w 55 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 19.0n 79.0w 60 kt...near Jamaica
72hr VT 29/0000z 22.0n 84.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 30/0000z 24.0n 87.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 31/0000z 26.0n 90.0w 85 kt

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Ernesto looks quite a bit more organized than it did this time last night. Of course, it was a TD then.

[Furious George]

N.O. in the 5 day cone. Hou/Galv likely in the cone by tomorrow. I'm anticipating some busy grocery and supply stores by Sunday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large

[Bailey1777]

Local Met said high will build in strong if there is going to be a weakness I don't think that front will be enough IMO.

[Stratosphere747]

Take a deep breath again...

Great benchmark will be where it impacts Jamaica.

[6SpeedTA95]

Well, lets hope the shear gets this thing the next 36hrs if it continues to strengthen despite its less than ideal environment we could have a significant storm on our hands next week. Not something we need right now

[Kennethb]

Just remember about one year ago what the different models showed as it approached and crossed Florida and how she eventually verified. I'm sure the eventual course will vary somewhat than what they are showing now.

Bottom line is that all of the GOM is vulnerable. Use this weekend to check hurricane emergency supplies and be prepared.

[Typhoon]

I have a dumb question. When does the diurnal maximum generally occur during the night? I would have thought that it would occur shortly after sunset, but from the comments here that doesn't seem to be the case.

[El Nino]

NHC says 35% chance of being a hurricane in 36h and 45 in 48h. I think Ernesto is winning against Mr Shear and it doesn't surprise me.

[ConvergenceZone]

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

This is what I don't get. If there is so much shear like some of the folks are saying, then why are they forecasting strengthening within the next 24 hours?? I thought the storm would just maintain what it has or slightly weaken. Reading this makes me even more confused than I was before!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Just remember about one year ago what the different models showed as it approached and crossed Florida and how she eventually verified. I'm sure the eventual course will vary somewhat than what they are showing now.

Bottom line is that all of the GOM is vulnerable. Use this weekend to check hurricane emergency supplies and be prepared.

Bingo!

[PTPatrick]

They really seems to hone on the 4-5 day time fram and the possible weakness...basically sounds like they have no clue yet and the track really could go due north from the wednesday position. I know they wont say that though until some more guidance and agreement comes together on this "weakness"

[6SpeedTA95]

NHC says 35% chance of being a hurricane in 36h and 45 in 48h. I think Ernesto is winning against Mr Shear and it doesn't surprise me.

It's clearly winning, its slowly but steadily become more organized over the course of the last 24 hrs.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

LATEST NHC DISCUSSION..

000
WTNT45 KNHC 260300
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL
STORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL
DISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS
BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR
PATTERN. DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK
IN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS
ERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT
THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN
BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 69.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W 60 KT...NEAR JAMAICA
72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

[Extremeweatherguy]

that weakness and the ridge will be the key. The following will all affect the final path:

- Where and if the weakness appears.
- How strong the ridge is.
-Where the ridge is.
-How strong Ernesto is.

Either way though, the latest cone does show that areas that will likely be safe from Ernesto include:

-Florida east of the panhandle.
-Extreme southern Mexico.

[Typhoon]

The NHC discussion says that there is 15 kt of westerly shear, which is moderate but not strong. They are counting on this shear lessening in 36-48 hours, based on SHIPS guidance. Derek says about 72 hours, and he rightly points out that the models often have a terrible time initializing the upper-level winds over the ocean due to limited use of satellite data. So I guess the question is whether SHIPS is too aggressive in weakening the shear. Actually, SHIPS is not a dynamical model itself, but it uses input from dynamical models.

[Mac]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

[Cape Verde]

Thanks,
Some News reports are coming in that gas prices are going up this weekend.

I guess this is slightly off-topic, but oil companies do not set oil or gasoline prices. That's done at the NY Merc exchange by private holders of those seats and whatever the market dictates.

We dread hurricane season. It knocks our production offline, subjects us massive media criticism, and costs us millions and even billions of dollars. We haven't even finished repairs from last year.

So the notion that we're hoping hurricane season will hurt us is an emotional but not rational thought.

We're watching Ernesto primarily because we will have to safely evacuate platform personnel, shut down the facility, and stop all current drilling activity in the Gulf. That's INCREDIBLY costly.

The fact that the company has now extended that kind of preparation to its land based offices only increases the cost to the bottom line.

I'm all in favor of safety and preventing any environmental damage. They may be taking it too far by ordering me out of the office on Tuesday, but I'm the not the CEO.