TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[caneman]

Winds now to 50 mph

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261134
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES

[storms in NC]

Max Mayfield, the National Hurricane Center director, said it was too early to say whether the storm would hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, which is still recovering from last year's Hurricane Katrina.

"It's too early to pinpoint one specific location but I think message is, especially to the folks that are in temporary housing, these 115,000 families mostly in the FEMA trailers, they need to watch this carefully," Mayfield told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "We've got some time. We don't want people to get too excited about this, but they certainly need to be watching it."

Is Max Mayfield trying to say something?

[KatDaddy]

Models trending more N over GOM. Should this occur Ernesto will pass over the loop current. A CAT 3 moving over the loop current spells CAT 5 as we saw with Rita and Katrina. I just cannot imagine another hit on the LA, MISS, ALA, or FLA coastline.

[TampaFl]

Even JB in a brief morning post is basically saying, is that there is plenty of uncertainty once Ernesto gets into the GOM. The models are all over the GOM as Ernesto will have to interact with the developing trough pattern that is forecast the mid part of next week into the Miss. Valley area. The question on his mind is will the models over estimate the trough the mid part of next week , as the trough is forecast for later next week in the Miss. Valley area. His thinking is that the ridge will hold north of Ernesto & allow it to continue moving nw through Thursday, as he thinks it will be near 25N 90W by then (his prediction from last night). He feels that IF, and JB is not forecasting this, if Ernesto were to track more to the North Central Gulf states, that it would most likley be moving east of north. Once again, JB did not forecast this or say this will happen.


IMHO, it is way to early to tell where Ernesto will go once in the GOM. All interest should review their plans now while there is plenty of time. Ernesto does appear like he will be around for awhile and it is going to be a long week ahead.


Robert

[Mac]

Although Ernie does have a "squashed" appearance on his western side, you can clearly see those thin, long, whispy clouds on the western side as well. If there was strong shear there, I would expect to see it affecting those clouds. Therefore, I DO NOT believe he is encountering any shear issues right now. Nor do I believe he is going to. If you'll notice, that dry air he's been encountering to his west for the past couple of days is disappearing. His improved circulation, inflow, and outflow seems to be really churning up the atomsphere around him and giving him a much moister environment to work with. This all points to intensification today, IMO.

[cpdaman]

I believe Ernesto has slowed down...

I believe its just the west side being supressed...

No, recon supported this significantly.

supported what? slowing down 1mph?

[ALhurricane]

Max Mayfield, the National Hurricane Center director, said it was too early to say whether the storm would hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, which is still recovering from last year's Hurricane Katrina.

"It's too early to pinpoint one specific location but I think message is, especially to the folks that are in temporary housing, these 115,000 families mostly in the FEMA trailers, they need to watch this carefully," Mayfield told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "We've got some time. We don't want people to get too excited about this, but they certainly need to be watching it."

Is Max Mayfield trying to say something?

I think he says what he wanted to say.

Those FEMA trailers are a big problem if they have to go through a hurricane. Max realizes that ALL options are on the table right now. One of those options is a northern GOM hit. He is simply doing what he has always done as director, give the people the right information. Those in the FEMA trailers do need to watch close just in case Ernesto heads their way, but I don't think Max is inferring anything beyond what he said.

[HURAKAN]

History isn't much help here. The tracks are just like the computer models, all over the place.

[johngaltfla]

Steve Lyons said there was an unconfirmed ship report of 60 mph winds to the SSE of the center. If that's true, Ernie is getting his you know what together quickly today and we might well be looking at Hurricane Ernesto by this time tommorrow....

[ALhurricane]

Although Ernie does have a "squashed" appearance on his western side, you can clearly see those thin, long, whispy clouds on the western side as well. If there was strong shear there, I would expect to see it affecting those clouds. Therefore, I DO NOT believe he is encountering any shear issues right now. Nor do I believe he is going to. If you'll notice, that dry air he's been encountering to his west for the past couple of days is disappearing. His improved circulation, inflow, and outflow seems to be really churning up the atomsphere around him and giving him a much moister environment to work with. This all points to intensification today, IMO.

Upper level low over NW Caribbean and a squashed appearance on the west side of the storm are definite indications of shear. This will continue to be the case until the ULL retrogrades far enough west. Ernesto is not going to have an easy day of it, but if he survives today, then there is definite trouble down the road.

[EDR1222]

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 261135
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.4 69.7 285./13.0
6 14.8 70.7 289./10.2
12 15.6 71.8 307./14.1
18 16.2 72.9 297./12.1
24 17.2 73.9 315./13.9
30 18.0 75.0 309./13.0
36 19.0 76.0 314./14.0
42 19.9 77.2 306./14.2
48 20.4 78.5 291./12.9
54 21.0 79.6 299./11.9
60 21.7 80.8 299./12.9
66 22.3 81.9 300./12.2
72 22.9 83.1 294./12.4
78 23.3 84.4 289./12.5
84 23.8 85.4 296./10.2
90 24.2 86.2 296./ 8.8
96 24.7 86.8 314./ 7.3
102 25.4 87.3 323./ 8.3
108 26.3 87.5 345./ 9.0
114 27.1 87.5 1./ 8.2
120 28.0 87.4 7./ 8.3
126 29.0 87.0 22./10.9

6z GFDL.

[HURAKAN]

Steve Lyons said there was an unconfirmed ship report of 60 mph winds to the SSE of the center. If that's true, Ernie is getting his you know what together quickly today and we might well be looking at Hurricane Ernesto by this time tommorrow....

SHIP 11 13.9 -68.8 170 52.1 - 11.5 8.0 29.71 - 84.2 84.2 - 6.2 6 11.5 8.0 90 - - - ---- -----

I believe that's the ship.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ship_obs.php?uom=E&time=1

[Scorpion]

Well apparently this shear isn't doing enough, as Ernesto is still strengthening and continues to build very deep convection.

[dwg71]

Thanks for the info ALHur, my amateur interpretation of the water vapor over the past 24-36 hours shows that the area from 72-80W was going to be the biggest hurdle regarding shear.

[Mac]

Although Ernie does have a "squashed" appearance on his western side, you can clearly see those thin, long, whispy clouds on the western side as well. If there was strong shear there, I would expect to see it affecting those clouds. Therefore, I DO NOT believe he is encountering any shear issues right now. Nor do I believe he is going to. If you'll notice, that dry air he's been encountering to his west for the past couple of days is disappearing. His improved circulation, inflow, and outflow seems to be really churning up the atomsphere around him and giving him a much moister environment to work with. This all points to intensification today, IMO.

Upper level low over NW Caribbean and a squashed appearance on the west side of the storm are definite indications of shear. This will continue to be the case until the ULL retrogrades far enough west. Ernesto is not going to have an easy day of it, but if he survives today, then there is definite trouble down the road.

If that is the case, can you explain to me why the shear does not seem to be affecting the feeder clouds to Ernie's west??? In the past, I've seen these clouds usually affected before the storm. But I'm not seeing anything to indicate those clouds are being sheared. So what gives? Perhaps high level shear and mid-level clouds??? Weak shear??? What explanation can you provide?

[Scorpion]

New model plots are disturbing. The eastward trend continues.

[rnbaida]

These models are starting to show a cat 3 heading for the gulf.... The shear isnt going to do anything to ernesto.

[johngaltfla]

New model plots are disturbing. The eastward trend continues.

They will wobble back west today also. I'll be more attentive to the models once Ernie gets to the Caymans. I hope the Gulfstream is going to be sent up today or tommorrow so the models have more data to digest. This is setting up to be another history maker....

[Steve]

>>if Ernesto were to track more to the North Central Gulf states, that it would most likley be moving east of north. Once again, JB did not forecast this or say this will happen.

You would think that would be the case as it often happens with the big August Storms (Katrina, Camile, etc.).
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Don't call out Derek. You can go to his website or the Tropical Analysis forum where he puts his track and forecast. He's superb about keeping it updated.

Steve