T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Noles2006]

AFM... re: the LLC... I agree with you. [heh, I know you didn't need my agreement, just sayin' that I see what you're seein'.]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Seems like everytime recon goes in people say its falling apart and LLC is gone and we have an open wave...then BAM. Recon finds it has strengthened and the pressure continues falling.

Its because this time, Ernesto has really kinda lost his LLC.

Are you sure about this?....

That's what I heard from my fellow posters.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New GFS 12Z even farther east.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

but it has it at 1010mb...

Oh it's always off on the pressures. But the track and upper air still showing east.

[bucman1]

Nole,

I'm a nole to, but I call it the way I see it(My wife says I'm never right)

[wxman57]

Clearly. Look at the loop I posted. It's easy to spot under the convection.

That loop nearly kills my PC. I have a higher-resolution and larger McIDAS loop going. I can't verify an LLC near that convection. Certainly there is rotation aloft. What lat/lon would you put the center? I know that even if the pressure is 1002-1004 that there could still be a broad LLC.

It just looks torn apart to me this morning if the LLC is where the NHC put it. If it really is under the convection near 15.6N/70.4W, then that's another story. But that postion would be over 60nm from the NHC estimate.

[Brent]

Seems like everytime recon goes in people say its falling apart and LLC is gone and we have an open wave...then BAM. Recon finds it has strengthened and the pressure continues falling.

Its because this time, Ernesto has really kinda lost his LLC.

Are you sure about this?....

That's what I heard from my fellow posters.

Me and Jason were being sarcastic.

[x-y-no]

Anyone see the 12Z GFS? Apparently it takes Ernesto across Cuba and into Miami/Northern Keys.

wow. Now we know it is really insane.

Well, it's initializing it as a weak low. Then what seems to happen is it catches it in a pocket in the 500mb ridge - and that slows it down to the point that it spends the next three days moving south of Cuba.

That kind of trapping scenario has happened, but I'm sure not betting on it.

That said, this would be the one and only scenario that could lead to a Florida peninsula threat - slow enough progress south of Cuba that an eventual morthward move takes him into the peninsula. The Charlie type strong recurvature can't happen because there's no strong front coming to cause it.

[Mac]

Some people appear to be reading WAYYY too much into AFM saying the LLC may have relocated. That DOES NOT = dying storm. In fact, he has stated that convection is firing over where he thinks the LLC is...as in BUILDING storm. These things happen all the time as storms are in their infancy.

Please feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding what you're saying, AFM.

[jlauderdal]

We are adding a page every 6 minutes now, can we overload the server at this rate?

there is an inverse relationship between the strength of a system to the response rate of the s2k server(s)

[Wx_Warrior]

Noles2006...what's the line on Ernesto???? LOL...over/under?

[Noles2006]

buc - Heh, I was just kiddin' with ya. I just know that Ernie isn't coming here next week because I know that mother nature doesn't want to mess with my football weekend.

[Air Force Met]

New GFS 12Z even farther east.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

but it has it at 1010mb...

Exactly...like I really trust a model that can't initialize a system right.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

C'mon people! Let's wait and see what the NHC says before we start the "storm is dead" posts.

I don't think it's going to go from being forecast to become a 100 knot hurricane, to a TD.

[bucman1]

If there is one thing close to the power of mother nature its a football weekend.

[skysummit]

New GFS 12Z even farther east.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

but it has it at 1010mb...

Exactly...like I really trust a model that can't initialize a system right.

Well, if wxman57 says it has an open LLC, maybe it's really 1010 now? LOL

[x-y-no]

Recon is in the air, so in a couple of hours we'll have much better data again.

[Bailey1777]

Man people are amazing. The man told you where to look and gave you the link. Can't be easier than that.

[bevgo]

We are adding a page every 6 minutes now, can we overload the server at this rate?

And every time you do this you are adding to the problem. ????? Are you worried about the length or just want to see it go faster?

[curtadams]

You don't "lose" an LLC like that. If Samantha Stevens wiggled her nose and made all convection disappear it would keep spinning for two days. On RGB low cloud rotation remains obvious and the apparent center is on the west edge of the CDO (just where sat overflights put it a few hours ago). In particular, low clouds just ahead of the CDO are moving south quite rapidly so it's still focused as well. On the 10:15 EDT AM pic 71.2 is right at the edge of the CDO so the NHC is on board too.

Shear seems to be gaining the upper hand so the center may be visible again shortly.

[JTD]

CNN's met Bonnie Schenider just said shear is tearing apart the storm. Just FYI.