TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[Thatsmrhurricane]

8PM NW 12mph 45mph storm. Tow the course.

I can't believe that they would move the models W to any significant degree. They only moved in response to overwhelming data from recon and sats. along with model forecasts the past few days.

Compare the last two runs Frame 1 and 2. Not a big difference. Some E. Some W.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

I liked it when they kept going east.

[gtalum]

Some folks seem to be hoping for a significant west coast event. It ain't gonna happen.

[deltadog03]

I estimate the center to be around there.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

u tell me what direction this appears to be moving

cause i have no idea there is no way it is moving THIS MUCH to the west maybe the illusion of a little vortex spinning wsw around a developing center leads the eye to think it is moving

notice in the last 2 frames there is a flare up of thunderstorms in the sw part of the (center) on coast that appear to be moving NORTH EAST. which would mean it looks like it may be jumping/ (forming) just OFF the coast . the center appears elongated SW TO NE

[marcane_1973]

I just wish this storm would hurry up and do what it is going to do. Ernesto is such a boring and disorganized looking TS. My pops in Myrtle Bch S.C. said he cant wait for this whoosie to get up there. They could use some more rain. Thats what we called storms like this when i lived at home. I can hear him now come Thursday or Friday. We have had bigger summer storms this year with more muscle than this Ernesto.

[CocoCreek]

In looking at the latest visible and IR images it appears as if the entire storm envelope is starting to re-interact with each other with more energy and more turning and twisting near the estimated center. Luckily though, I don't believe it is out over water yet.

[wxman57]

wxman57, no UKMET? Hard to tell, but the 18Z GFS looked west of the AVN shown on your graphic.

I removed the 12Z models, which would include the UK.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

21N 77W?

I wish we had more surface obs and radar from Cuba.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ernie flexing a few muscles....some storms blowing up...near center. KFDM chief has center just over the water...

[Stormavoider]

I just wish this storm would hurry up and do what it is going to do. Ernesto is such a boring and disorganized looking TS. My pops in Myrtle Bch S.C. said he cant wait for this whoosie to get up there. They could use some more rain. Thats what we called storms like this when i lived at home. I can hear him now come Thursday or Friday. We have had bigger summer storms this year with more muscle than this Ernesto.

If it comes to Myrtle Bch S.C. it will not be a storm like this.

[webke]

I just wish this storm would hurry up and do what it is going to do. Ernesto is such a boring and disorganized looking TS. My pops in Myrtle Bch S.C. said he cant wait for this whoosie to get up there. They could use some more rain. Thats what we called storms like this when i lived at home. I can hear him now come Thursday or Friday. We have had bigger summer storms this year with more muscle than this Ernesto.

If it comes to Myrtle Bch S.C. it will not be a storm like this.

If it comes to Myrtle Beach I prefer that it looks and is no stronger than it is now personally.

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.9 76.5 310./11.1
6 21.0 77.1 286./ 6.1
12 21.6 77.9 302./ 9.6
18 22.5 78.6 324./11.7
24 23.5 79.5 316./12.4
30 24.1 80.2 314./ 8.9
36 24.7 80.6 330./ 6.7
42 25.7 80.9 337./10.1
48 26.4 81.1 351./ 7.3
54 27.2 81.0 5./ 8.4
60 28.3 80.8 7./11.3
66 29.5 80.8 5./11.1
72 30.7 80.5 10./12.4
78 31.9 80.2 15./12.4
84 33.1 80.2 0./12.0
90 34.6 80.1 4./15.4
96 35.8 80.1 0./11.6
102 37.0 80.1 0./11.8
108 38.6 80.8 337./17.0
114 40.1 81.2 342./15.3
120 41.5 81.6 346./14.0
126 42.7 81.6 358./12.3

[gatorcane]

looks like it is really getting its act together. Unbelievable, lets hope it doesn't strengthen too fast.

[miamicanes177]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

[Buck]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

Um... look at the loop. See what its done just over the past few hours.

It will probably be a 50mph tropical storm again by 11.

[Vandora]

Max Mayfield was on channel 10. Said they were hoping for it to weaken to a TD, but that it doesn't seem to be doing that. He said there is some banding all the way around the storm. Don Noe asked if people who haven't put up shutters in S. FL should, and he said yes.

Just thought I'd toss that out there.

[gatorcane]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

Um... look at the loop. See what its done just over the past few hours.

It will probably be a 50mph tropical storm again by 11.

yep definitely a possibility, lots of deep convection now near the center...and the center is just barely over water or along the coast still...

[storms in NC]

So will it shift back east or more west? I have to quit. You all have fun.

[Buck]

We'll just have to wait and see what it is at 11.

[miamicanes177]

It will probably be a 50mph tropical storm again by 11.

Recon has not found the kind of winds they were finding earlier today. In fact, they've not found high enough winds to keep it at 40mph for the 7pm advisory.