TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[shaggy]

well its going on noon and the local NWS from morehead city hasnt put out any kind of weather update and on their homepage they have not even added the new hurricane watches so anyone popping on to their site on a break at work will not get the real picture of whats happening and where the new watches are.These are the kind of storms that can be really bad for people and can get people in trouble by catching them off guard.Lets all just hope he doesnt do something crazy and pull an Alex!!!!

[windnrain]

FCI, I fully agree...
and look, I like the NHC a lot, they get it right a lot, but you are correct... when they said this storm would strengthen, it weakened. When they said it would weaken, it strengthened.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Okay, everyone calm down and RELAX!
This thing hasn't bombed into a Cat 3 or anything like that.

It's a possibly dangerous tropical storm that will take people by surprise, but I think everyone on here needs to just relax and stop bashing the NHC etc. They have said for quite a while that Ernesto could strengthen after leaving FLA.

Let's wait until AFTER the storm to start the discussion on how bad the forecasts were.

[fwbbreeze]

FCI, I fully agree...
and look, I like the NHC a lot, they get it right a lot, but you are correct... when they said this storm would strengthen, it weakened. When they said it would weaken, it strengthened.

So did EVERYBODY else!! NO reason to be any harder on the NHC than JB, or other professional mets.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

FCI, I fully agree...
and look, I like the NHC a lot, they get it right a lot, but you are correct... when they said this storm would strengthen, it weakened. When they said it would weaken, it strengthened.

They have said for several days it would likely restrengthen somewhat off the Carolina coasts.

[stormtruth]

FCI, I fully agree...
and look, I like the NHC a lot, they get it right a lot, but you are correct... when they said this storm would strengthen, it weakened. When they said it would weaken, it strengthened.

So did EVERYBODY else!! NO reason to be any harder on the NHC than JB, or other professional mets.

The NHC isn't supposed to be like everybody else. They are supposed to be better.

[UpTheCreek]

Let's get back to the storm......save the criticism for later?

[shaggy]

maybe its just me but on the last frame of the visible loop it looks to maybe be forming an "eye" like feature with the storms wrapping around the north side of it now i hope they will keep a plane in the storm now until it makes final landfall!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[storms in NC]

this is where I Live Look for the red line and dot right of I40

[img=http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/636/radarhr2.th.jpg]

[windnrain]

They said it was going towards the gulf, pointed at new orleans (with their extended track) as a major hurricane. We all know how that went. They said it would strengthen as it passed bellow Hispaniola and gain hurricane status before it hit cuba\. It hit it and weakened. They said it would strenghthen between cuba and Florida... Hah. They said it would weaken over florida... if I remember correctly, it dropped 4-6 mb of pressure from the time it hit to the time it exited. They issued hurricane watches what, 10 hours before a hit?

It was a blunder, period.

[fci]

FCI, I fully agree...
and look, I like the NHC a lot, they get it right a lot, but you are correct... when they said this storm would strengthen, it weakened. When they said it would weaken, it strengthened.

So did EVERYBODY else!! NO reason to be any harder on the NHC than JB, or other professional mets.

Yes, there is a reason to be harder on the NHC.
They are the official word and not a pay service.
The general public counts on the NHC.

[terstorm1012]

All We Know Is Falling: Good point. Those were consitently in their forecasts. Intensity forecasting is notoriously difficult to do as well. It is a process we have limited understanding on.

What I think happened is the modeling did not take into account the easterly shear that popped up yesterday over the Florida Straits, and the fact that Cuba just ripped it to shreads.

the good news out of this is it'll be in and out (unless it stalls somewhere, then it'll be all bad news) by Sunday.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Fine, whatever. This thread is to discuss the storm RIGHT NOW!

If you want to discuss the NHC and their "blunders" make a different thread.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

terstorm1012 - I agree.

I'm at school right now and was wondering if the news media was covering Ernesto now? Anyone know..

[storms in NC]

now they are saying 8PM landfall

[carve]

So 8 more hours of intensification....possible hurricane by then?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

That gives it about 9 hours left over water. If that was in eastern time..

[Droop12]

Wow, I said last night I wouldnt be surprised if this was a hurricane tomorrow, and I might not be far off.

[wxman57]

Charleston radar shows an eyewall forming, and an eye just appeared on satellite near 31.4N/79.2W. I think we have a hurricane out there. Picture shortly...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Nope, you might not.

I say winds at landfall could be anywhere between 60-80 mph. Probably 65 or 70, IMO.