TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Derecho]

Let

Models.... Pro Mets..... and Climatology.... all say that Florence will curve away from the mainland U.S.

FWIW, the 18Z NGP is quite a bit further W than the 12Z and while it doesn't show a hit, based on the 144 hr position it's hard to see how it misses the US.

[Scorpion]

Hmm... perhaps a trend? UKMET and now NGP.

[ROCK]

I still think we have center issues with this storm currently. Just my take as I watch this loop.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


why is that convection building to the west (trying to wrap) where the proclaimed center is? I have seen the LLC earlier today by know on visible I cannot make it out.

[cinlfla]

Let

Models.... Pro Mets..... and Climatology.... all say that Florence will curve away from the mainland U.S.

FWIW, the 18Z NGP is quite a bit further W than the 12Z and while it doesn't show a hit, based on the 144 hr position it's hard to see how it misses the US.

Do you have a Link? please!!

[Derecho]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp

Click on "public charts"

[wxman57]

I think that all the speculation about a current westward movement is meaningless, as what we're seeing is the process of consolidation into a single, tight center. Until we have a well-defined single center (that's less than 150 miles across) these center relocations won't represent a true motion. Currently, I see a lobe rotating north of the current position. That's likely the reason for any apparent stalling or westward motion. Let it organize and get a real center and then we can talk about changes in motion.

As for the recurvature timing, we won't really be too sure of that for another 3-4 days, most likely. We can debate it endlessly for the next few days, but there will be no resolution for quite a while. I'd give it a 60% shot at recurving and possibly affecting Newfoundland and a 40% shot at striking the Carolinas - northward to New England. The trend does appear to be an increasing east U.S. Coast threat.

One other thought -- assuming Florence survives the next few days (looking more likely now), it may become a quite powerful hurricane (Cat 3-4) in about 4-5 days. Odds are, it would weaken as it begins recurving out to sea or toward the east U.S. Coast, but it could pass Bermuda or reach the Carolinas as a Cat 2-3 quite easily.

[MiamiensisWx]

why is that convection building to the west (trying to wrap) where the proclaimed center is? I have seen the LLC earlier today by know on visible I cannot make it out.

I believe, based on the circulation, that the LLC is just under the convection trying to wrap. Look closely at this loop and see if that helps.

[MiamiensisWx]

Odds are, it would weaken as it begins recurving out to sea or toward the east U.S. Coast, but it could pass Bermuda or reach the Carolinas as a Cat 2-3 quite easily.

Wouldn't that potential weakening be due to increasing shear (and possibly dry air intrusion) from the intruding trough?

[wxman57]

Odds are, it would weaken as it begins recurving out to sea or toward the east U.S. Coast, but it could pass Bermuda or reach the Carolinas as a Cat 2-3 quite easily.

Wouldn't that potential weakening be due to increasing shear (and possibly dry air intrusion) from the intruding trough?

Those are both possibilities. Dry air intrusion is what knocked Isabel down as it approached the east U.S. Coast. Typically, shear also increases during recurvature.

[ronjon]

My take on Flo is that its a pretty sheared system now and will be the next couple of days with that pesky ULL to its NW moving in tandem with the storm. With that in mind, she'll stay shallow with a broad LLC and continue to be steered by the low level easterlies. My hunch is that it'll track more south and west then the model projections as long as its a sheared out storm. Obviously, each degree of longitude gained west prior to 20N looks increasingly ominous for an EC landfall. The globals are pretty gung-ho on ultimately bombing Flo out so I'll generally be surprised if this doesn't occur 3-5 days down the line. By that time, with a more southerly approach and a potentially weak trough interacting with the ridge, we could have a very interesting situation.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[marcane_1973]

I do not even care to take a look at the models in the long term. They are useless. The atmosphere will change and do what it wants to do and not by saying what a model run says. If Florence decides she wants to slow down and take a breather for a while then she may very well miss her express train trough out of town and the east coast will be a sitting duck. The forward speed and timing of the atmospheric conditions present along the East coast will be the determining factors of where Florence ends up.

[Trugunzn]

very intense cloud tops starting to show:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

Hmmm. Something interesting is happening here. The center appears to have stalled slightly and taken a directly west track. This motion happens sometimes right before a jump to the NW, but this time I'm not sure. After it looked like it was pulling up earlier it now looks like the easterlies are in control of the low profile system. We'll look for that jerk NW.

ALSO - Florence has shot black-top IR convection while in a highly dislocated state. Which means watch this one! It will enter progressively warmer SST's from here on.

[Epsilon_Fan]

something tells me this will be a Hatteras-scraper by the time she reaches the East Coast...

[ROCK]

Hmmm. Something interesting is happening here. The center appears to have stalled slightly and taken a directly west track. This motion happens sometimes right before a jump to the NW, but this time I'm not sure. After it looked like it was pulling up earlier it now looks like the easterlies are in control of the low profile system. We'll look for that jerk NW.

ALSO - Florence has shot black-top IR convection while in a highly dislocated state. Which means watch this one! It will enter progressively warmer SST's from here on.

I agree....more center issues attm....I wish it would consolidate already. Its been like 3+ days with this split personality.....

[Zardoz]

...The center appears to have stalled slightly and taken a directly west track...

Seems to have virtually stopped at the moment. Is it true that the slower it goes the more westerly it will track?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Damar91]

Slower is bad.....

[ROCK]

...The center appears to have stalled slightly and taken a directly west track...

Seems to have virtually stopped at the moment. Is it true that the slower it goes the more westerly it will track?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

from that loop 91L is really gaining some ground on 6....this will be interesting interaction.....

[Meso]

[Trugunzn]

well GFDL is wrong about track so far here is center:



GFDL



GFDL shows going NW but the storm is going west

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