TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[gatorcane]

Ok, I know I'm going to regret saying this, but here goes. After looking at the trough currently over the east coast, the direction and lack of real organization with Florence, I am going to say that she will miss the trough altogether. Now, what happens after that, I would not hazard to guess.

Well if you are correct I will eat a whole buffet of crow....I really doubt that will happen, the center is wobbling into the deep convection today so some strengthening could ensue over the next 24-48 hours despite the SW shear.

[Damar91]

Ok, I know I'm going to regret saying this, but here goes. After looking at the trough currently over the east coast, the direction and lack of real organization with Florence, I am going to say that she will miss the trough altogether. Now, what happens after that, I would not hazard to guess.

Well if you are correct I will eat a whole buffet of crow....I really doubt that will happen, the center is wobbling into the deep convection today so some strengthening could ensue over the next 24-48 hours despite the SW shear.

Don't worry, I'm sure I'm the one that will be eating.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

The center does seem to be wobbling quite a bit today. It looks like a northeast wobble a little back towards the 50 Line. Most likely the large circulation will generally move WNW today.

[Damar91]

Just one other observation, what influence, if any, will this have on it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

The big blob on the east coast......

[cpdaman]

yes the center is wobbling but i doubt under these conditions it would move under convection long enough to do anything (since blob of convection is also moving closer to shear)

it is like a bug squirming for it's life when it's senses danger ( i see the wobbling not necessarily a sign of strengthening more of desperation IMO

[terstorm1012]

I think that blob is getting drawn north into the frontal system, damar91

[wxman57]

By the way, I see the center near 18.6N/50.4W at 17Z on McIDAS imagery. Movement appears to be toward 010 degrees. That said, I think this vortex may be rotating around a broad center that's farther west-northwest. The system isn't moving toward 010 deg. Certianly not showing signs of getting stronger.

[wxman57]

Why are there 7 Florence discussion threads? I just counted 7 separate threads related to Florence's movement or model discussions, etc. Isn't this the Florence thread to discuss all that? I'm not even reading the other threads.

[cpdaman]

this storm is unpredictable to say the least

last couple visuals i looked at seemed to show flo trying to wrap convection as the swirl of llc wobbles closer to "center".

then my computer doesn't allow me to view satelite pictures or visible shots

i admit i have no idea what this sytem is doing now, i was convinced it was weakening (up until an hour ago, then it shows me signs of better satelite representation on visual 0, unless upper level low is moving away faster than water vapor indicated or is weakening i am at a loss for words unless the last 40 minutes of visible representation was not really better organization but more a illusion. however the shear from this ull could again effect this system more in a several hours as it appears the gap between the ull and LLC or center is diminishing (mabye then another center reformation)

[Thunder44]

It's seems that low-level swirl we've been tracking today, was just a large mesocale vortex spinning around a broader circulation. Where TPC put the center at 11am advisory turned out to be good. It appears the system is getting better organzied this afternoon as it tries to wrap around more showers and thunderstorm around that center. I don't think it's going to be intensifying to much now or in the next several hours, but later tonight and tomorrow I expect some more significant intensification, assuming the shear relaxes as forecast.

[flhurricaneguy]

It's seems that low-level swirl we've been tracking today, was just a large mesocale vortex spinning around a broader circulation. Where TPC put the center at 11am advisory turned out to be good. It appears the system is getting better organzied this afternoon as it tries to wrap around more showers and thunderstorm around that center. I don't think it's going to be intensifying to much now or in the next several hours, but later tonight and tomorrow I expect some more significant intensification, assuming the shear relaxes as forecast.

whatever Flo does i am just glad she isnt a threat anymore

[x-y-no]

It's seems that low-level swirl we've been tracking today, was just a large mesocale vortex spinning around a broader circulation.

Exactly right.

Where TPC put the center at 11am advisory turned out to be good. It appears the system is getting better organzied this afternoon as it tries to wrap around more showers and thunderstorm around that center. I don't think it's going to be intensifying to much now or in the next several hours, but later tonight and tomorrow I expect some more significant intensification, assuming the shear relaxes as forecast.

Late tonight at the earliest, I think. It's rather a mess right now. But there's just too much there for it not to pull its act together eventually.

[AJC3]

By the way, I see the center near 18.6N/50.4W at 17Z on McIDAS imagery. Movement appears to be toward 010 degrees. That said, I think this vortex may be rotating around a broad center that's farther west-northwest. The system isn't moving toward 010 deg. Certianly not showing signs of getting stronger.

On high res imagery, I see a roiling mess of at least two, perhaps three vortices which appears to be rotating around a common point. This thing is a disorganized mess right now.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... g_Mess.jpg

[Sanibel]

The reason the center is wobbling is because it is like a severely unbalanced tire. The weight is distributed too much to one side where the convection is because of the shear.

If you look closely the swirl is tracking WNW and right up into the recurve track.

[skysummit]

Up to 101kts now....

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 1800 060907 0600 060907 1800 060908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 51.1W 20.1N 53.0W 21.5N 55.2W 22.7N 57.7W
BAMM 18.7N 51.1W 19.7N 53.0W 20.9N 55.0W 22.1N 57.0W
A98E 18.7N 51.1W 19.5N 52.7W 20.5N 54.4W 21.6N 56.4W
LBAR 18.7N 51.1W 19.6N 52.9W 20.9N 54.9W 22.0N 57.2W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 1800 060909 1800 060910 1800 060911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.9N 60.1W 26.2N 64.5W 28.1N 67.3W 29.6N 67.6W
BAMM 23.5N 59.2W 26.2N 63.7W 28.4N 67.1W 29.5N 67.5W
A98E 22.9N 58.6W 25.7N 63.6W 27.9N 66.4W 30.1N 65.2W
LBAR 23.0N 59.7W 25.0N 64.7W 27.6N 67.5W 30.2N 68.0W
SHIP 78KTS 91KTS 99KTS 101KTS
DSHP 78KTS 91KTS 99KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 51.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 49.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$

[cycloneye]

Up to 101kts now....

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060906 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 1800 060907 0600 060907 1800 060908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 51.1W 20.1N 53.0W 21.5N 55.2W 22.7N 57.7W
BAMM 18.7N 51.1W 19.7N 53.0W 20.9N 55.0W 22.1N 57.0W
A98E 18.7N 51.1W 19.5N 52.7W 20.5N 54.4W 21.6N 56.4W
LBAR 18.7N 51.1W 19.6N 52.9W 20.9N 54.9W 22.0N 57.2W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 1800 060909 1800 060910 1800 060911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.9N 60.1W 26.2N 64.5W 28.1N 67.3W 29.6N 67.6W
BAMM 23.5N 59.2W 26.2N 63.7W 28.4N 67.1W 29.5N 67.5W
A98E 22.9N 58.6W 25.7N 63.6W 27.9N 66.4W 30.1N 65.2W
LBAR 23.0N 59.7W 25.0N 64.7W 27.6N 67.5W 30.2N 68.0W
SHIP 78KTS 91KTS 99KTS 101KTS
DSHP 78KTS 91KTS 99KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 51.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 49.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$

The folks in Bermuda and NewFoundland have to watch the progress of Florence very closely as it may well be a very powerful hurricane by the time it gets to those areas.

[Meso]

Is it pulling in moisture from the ITCZ (Or some similar acronym) ? Cause that's a lot of clouds to the south that it seems to be grabbing...If so this storm could end up quite big in size even though it's already not that small?

[Derek Ortt]

models are trending left at the longer periods, indicating more of a due northerly movement

Could increase the risk for Nova Scotia and Maine

[flhurricaneguy]

wont the cooler waters calm flo down a bit as she aproaches maine or nova scotia?

[jpigott]

When is the last time Maine experienced a landfalling hurricane?