HH Helene Forecasts

Website · #81 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:39 am

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:okay, sorry I have to say this . . .

Everybody knows cats study at MEU!

jusforsean · #82 Postby **jusforsean** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:40 pm

o.k. Evil, we await your new forecast..........

#83 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:00 pm

its going to be coming soon.

#84 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:36 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene: The amazing, but ever confusing storm!

We were going to raise the winds up to 85 MPH, were retaining the current speed because of lack of outer convection. The winds are currently at 80 MPH, with a pressure of 985 MB.

Its current direction is hard to find. We are continuing the motion from our previous advisory, which is at around 12 MPH going WNW. This is slightly faster than the NHC indicates.

I’m just going to cut to the part that everyone cares about: the GFS, and how it can affect the future model runs. Some people the GFS runs to be the basic model, meaning that some other models are based off of the GFS. The latest GFS run sends Helene right for the East Coast. If the next GFS model run stays the same, we could see more models join this path option. Obvisoly, this will interrupt my plans for next weekend. More importantly, Florida COULD is in danger, again.

We have added this new info into our track, but unfortunately, we still do not have the recourses to generate a new cone picture. Therefore, I will just have to explain It to you all who care. I now see a NW track for the next 42-60 hours, with patches of WNW movement in it. After that, we expect movement anywhere from West to WNW. This is highly uncertain, and many corrections might be made in the morning.

Intensity wise, we have lowered our forecast. We now expect Helene to peak at 115 MPH, aka a Cat 3 Major Hurricane in 96 hours, followed by steady weakening.

INITIAL 80 MPH
12HR VT 85 MPH
24HR VT 90 MPH
36HR VT 95 MPH
48HR VT 100 MPH
72HR VT 110 MPH
96HR VT 115 MPH
120HR VT 110 MPH

#85 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:40 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene rapidly intensifying

Blending together the 3 latest SSD reports, and taking in the factors with Helene, such as the dry air around it and its huge eye, we are raising the intensity up to 100 MPH. if the eye shrinks some more, rapid strengthening can begin. Using the info stated above, the new estimated pressure is sat at 967 MB.

Movement has become more certain over the past few hours, and we regrettably have it heading WNW at 13 MPH.

The models are now disagreeing more than ever. Nearly half of them head west, while the others send it going NW and NNW. Our cone, which we were able to make for this advisory, is based on this, and it sends generally WNW with patches of NW movement for the next 3 days, then starting a recurve around 65W-70W. the storm also peaks Cat 4 strength in-between days 3 and 4.

INITIAL 100 MPH
12HR 105 MPH
24HR 110 MPH
36HR 115 MPH
48HR 120 MPH
72HR 130 MPH
96HR 130 MPH
120HR 110 MPH

WeatherTracker · #86 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:43 am

You have it heading toward the US? :?:

#87 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:46 am

1. I blended the models together.
2. My cones head a little more north each time.
3. I stated a recurve around 65W-770W, which means it will go back to sea!
4. im not buying the NHC forecast with that sharp of a turn after 3 days. My turn is more gradual.

#88 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:13 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene on the verge of becoming a major.

Floater presentation has continued to improve, and new estimates of a 102 KT hurricane have come in, so we raised wind speeds to 115 MPH in response to those factors. Helene is now at Category 3 strength. We have also lowered the pressure to 963 MB.

Movement is still a little uncertain, but we have it heading NNW at 13 MPH for the time being. We expect a turn to the west or WNW to resume mid day tomorrow, and for that motion to remain for the 3 following days. After then, the motion is uncertain.

The models are more confusing than ever. The worse part is that two very reliable models, the UKMET and the GFS, are forecasting the continuing westward motion at the end of 5 days, towards the state of Florida. However, we still do not think that Florida is in danger, at least not right now. The rest of the models take Helene recurving at around 60W-65W. our latest cone is based on these, the storms latest movement, and the through in the middle of the USA right now. Overall, its is a little more north and west of our previous cone.

INITIAL 115 MPH
12HR 120 MPH
24HR 135 MPH
36HR 140 MPH
48HR 135 MPH
72HR 125 MPH
96HR 115 MPH
120HR 105 MPH

Normandy · #89 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:28 pm

^That would be close for NE, how sharp is your recurvature thinking?

Scorpion · #90 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:30 pm

It looks to be 120 mph right now.

#91 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:32 pm

updated with the latest info. and a sharp recurve right around Bermuda, or as you people in Texas might asy, "now swing your storm round and round"!

#92 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:46 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene still a powerful major hurricane.

I was very tempted to raise the wind speeds to 125 MPH this morning because of great appearance and many other factors, but I decided not to because I saw that the west side of Helene is induring some dry air, and the eye wall is not as impressive as it was last night. Thus, the intensity is still at 120 MPH, with a pressure of 965 MB.

A miracle has takes place. The models are starting to agree with each other again. Most of them, including the GFDL forecast a recurve east of Bermuda, while a few others, including the UKMET send it more west. Our new cone is split in the middle of these models, which sends it towards Bermuda in 5 days.

Right now, Helene is moving at 10 MPH, slower than before, going NNW. Helene is expected to turn NW. WNW, or west sometime today.

For the time being, Helene remains as a powerful hurricane. I expect some more strengthening before it enters an area of more shear. However, if the shear is weaker than forecasted, then Helene could easily grow stronger than stated here. We expect Helene to peak as a 140 MPH hurricane sometime within the next 48 hours. After that, we forecast some slow weakening, and by the time it reaches Bermuda, it should be a Category 2 hurricane.

“HHRFC Storm Alerts” will likely be issued tomorrow for the island nation of Bermuda.

INITIAL 120 MPH
12HR 125 MPH
24HR 130 MPH
36HR 135 MPH
48HR 140 MPH
72HR 130 MPH
96HR 120 MPH
120HR 110 MPH

gpickett00 · #93 Postby **gpickett00** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:17 am

Why do you make 2 cones of uncertainty? About 20% of that whole image is in the cone

Thunder44 · #94 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:01 am

gpickett00 wrote:Why do you make 2 cones of uncertainty? About 20% of that whole image is in the cone

I wonder about that too. What are your forecast points, Evil?

#95 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:14 am

their not two cones. the fully collered area is where the storm will go, but the dotted area is where some of the effects could be felt.

#96 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:44 pm

THIS ADVISORY WAS WRITTEN BEFORE THE 5:00PM EDT OFFICIAL ONE WAS ISSUED!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene finally turning more west.

Despite latest recon reports, I am keeping the wind speeds at 120 MPH. The storm looks a little more ragged then it did this morning, and shear around the storm should increase in 18 hours and last for another 24. With the environments becoming a little more hostile for strengthening, I think that Helene will reach peak intensity in about 12 hours now, as a 130 MPH hurricane with a pressure of 955 MB. The current estimated pressure is around 965 MB, same as earlier.

After the huge disagreements with the models over the weekend, they are finally agreeing with each other. In a tight cluster, the most recent models have the storm heading westward over the next 1/12 days, and then they all turn it NW, NNW, then North and NNE over time. They also show no threat to Bermuda. Additionally, they are all east of the 11:00AM EDT track. However, if Gordon moves away faster or slower than currently expected, some things can change.

Right now, Helene is moving at 10 MPH, slower than this time yesterday, heading WNW. Helene is expected to continue this motion for another 36 hours.

Helene remains a strong hurricane, the second major of the season. While not much more intensification is currently expected, it is possible that Category 4 strength can be reached. If it is, however, it will be in the next 24 hours before shear takes over. The shear isn’t expected to weaken Helene that much, but it should keep it from strengthening.

The path of Helene is also uncertain. It all depends on the speed and direction that Helene takes over the next 24 hours. While none of the models currently suggest it, A Bermuda hit is still possible. The models have gone crazy with this storm so far, so I cant rely on them as much as I would want to right now. This is all reflected in our new cone, which Is NE of the previous one.

“HHRFC Storm Alerts” might need to be issued tomorrow for the island nation of Bermuda.

INITIAL 120 MPH
12HR 120 MPH
24HR 125 MPH
36HR 130 MPH
48HR 125 MPH
72HR 120 MPH
96HR 110 MPH
120HR 105 MPH

#97 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:26 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene is becoming very confusing.

Helene’s eye wall has shrunken over the last few hours, and convection has increased slightly, thus we strengthen Helene to a 125 MPH, 963 MB Category 3 hurricane. It is possible that Helene could go under rapid intensification before entering some stronger shear. We currently have the center pinpointed at around 24N and 51.5W.

Motion of Helene has been changing all day, and now seems to be heading just north of due west, so we have Helene heading WNW, or at 275 Degrees at. This general direction and speed is expected to persist for another 36 hours.

Helene remains a strong hurricane, the strongest of this season. While not much more intensification is currently expected, it is possible that Category 4 strength can be reached. If it is, however, it will be in the next 24 hours before more shear takes over. The shear isn’t expected to weaken Helene that much, but it should keep it from strengthening.

The models are continuing to agree, and we agree that it is good for them to agree! The models continue to show a westward motion for the next 1 ½ days now, followed by a sharp turn to the NNW after that. Our forecast is slightly more westward then theirs is, and the turn is less sharp. Regardless, a Bermuda hit no longer seems all that likely. The current cone can, however, change if there are any major movement changes to the north or south.

“HHRFC Storm Alerts” might need to be issued tomorrow for the island nation of Bermuda.

INITIAL 125 MPH
12HR 125 MPH
24HR 130 MPH
36HR 135 MPH
48HR 135 MPH
72HR 130 MPH
96HR 125 MPH
120HR 115 MPH

#98 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 7:01 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene Continues Heading WNW.

A “HHRFC Storm Alert” might be issued for Bermuda today if Helene moves more westward then expected.

Helene has made no changes to itself this morning, thus we are keeping the wind speeds and pressure from last night’s advisory the same. This continues to make Helene a Category 3 Hurricane with 125 MPH winds and a pressure of 963 MB. Over the net day or so, Helene will have all the conditions she needs to strengthen into a Category 4 Hurricane, and we forecast that happening in about 24-36 hours now. Our intensity Forecast is the similar one from earlier.

Helene has continued to turn more westward with every hour, and is now estimated to be heading at 280 degrees at 7KT, or heading WNW at 9 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for another 24 hours, followed by a turn back to the NW, NNW, and finally North in the next 48 hours. All of this comes with an increase of speed.

In the case of Helene, Timing can mean everything. We already know that with Gordon pulling out, the ridge that Florence originally traveled through and Gordon kept open should build back to the west. That is what is happening, but a ridge off of the east coast of the USA will shoot Helene north. We know that it will turn north, but the problem is where and when. That is one of the many reasons that our cone is so big for this advisory.

The models continue to agree on a westward motion for another 24 hours or so, then turning to the NW and then North. However, all of the models turn Helene northward at different times, different speeds, and at different locations. We have used all of this data in our new, large cone.

The cone is always the hardest part of the advisory to complete to make because of all of the different paths that the storm in question can make. In this case, the cone is harder than ever to create. As I said above, its all about timing.

INITIAL 125 MPH
12HR 130 MPH
24HR 135 MPH
36HR 135 MPH
48HR 130 MPH
72HR 125 MPH
96HR 120 MPH
120HR 110 MPH

#99 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:36 pm

Helene improves in organization

A “HHRFC Storm Alert” has been issued for Bermuda. Please remember that the “Storm Alert” is NOT official in any way, and is only used to state that the areas affected can possibly feel some kind of tropical activity in the coming 3 days. In this case, Bermuda could get some weak-to-moderate Tropical Storm winds in the next 3 days. Even if they don’t get those kinds of winds, Helene’s rain bands should give them some heavy rain. If Helene turns NNW before our advisory tomorrow morning, we will cancel this “Storm Alert”

From 3-6 hours ago, Helene seemed to be weakening, as the eye became more ragged and the SW side of the storm started facing the shear that should get to the rest of the system by tomorrow night. Since then, however, Helene has improved. The eye is round again, and is clear of convection on the inside, something known as the “stadium effect” and cold clouds have reformed near the center. On top of this, recon reports show that the pressure is dropping.

I was very tempted to raise the wind speeds for this advisory, but because the NHC has had their wind speeds lower than ours all day, and the NRL now sees a Category 2 hurricane, We have lowered the wind speeds to 120 MPH. However, Helene could be much stronger than this right now, and we will know better later.

Along with this, we are now going with the pressure found by the Hurricane Hunters, which is 956 MB.

Helene’s movement is currently estimated to be at an increasing 11 MPH, heading west. However, one of the main reasons that we currently have Helene moving in a westward direction is because it keeps on wobbling north and south. Right before I wrote this advisory, it seemed to be heading WSW, but we assumed that it was only a wobble. The wobbly westward motion should continue for another 18-24 hours, before turning more to the north.

The models continue to agree, or at least they do through 3 days. In those first 3 days, they all forecast a turn to the NW and the NNW soon. My cone for this Advisory is more or less like our old one. This one also shows a less sharp of a turn than the models currently show now. Our new cone is also a little more westward than our previous cone.

Intensity wise, our cone is a little weaker for the first 36 hours, but generally the same afterwards. Category 4 strength is still forecasted to happen in the next 36 hours.

INITIAL 120 MPH
12HR 125 MPH
24HR 130 MPH
36HR 135 MPH
48HR 130 MPH
72HR 125 MPH
96HR 120 MPH
120HR 110 MPH

Derek Ortt · #100 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:45 pm

where are you coming up with 120 mph

No data even suggests 100!!! None except for the horribly inaccurate satellite estimates which should be discarded in the presence of ground truth data

HH Helene Forecasts

Who is online