Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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StormTracker
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cycloneye
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15/2345 UTC 17.4N 42.7W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean
SSD has 65kt T number estimates for Helene.Will she be classified as a hurricane at 11 PM?
SSD has 65kt T number estimates for Helene.Will she be classified as a hurricane at 11 PM?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
It is likely a hurricane...What else you can see is powerful outflow developing over the east/south quads. This is classic for a storm that is about ready to go through maybe even a strong/EXtream RIC. We will see if it can circle around the whole storm. Nice central core very nice.
I say this is a hurricane now(NO I"M NOT A WEATHER GOD! just stating it with fact that t numbers are pointing to what it is)
6 70 knots
12 75 knots
24 85 knots
36 100 knots
48 115 knots
60 120 knots
72 120 knots
This appears to be very faverable for a RIC. Disagree if you went...But my or your option is not proven to after the fact.
I say this is a hurricane now(NO I"M NOT A WEATHER GOD! just stating it with fact that t numbers are pointing to what it is)
6 70 knots
12 75 knots
24 85 knots
36 100 knots
48 115 knots
60 120 knots
72 120 knots
This appears to be very faverable for a RIC. Disagree if you went...But my or your option is not proven to after the fact.
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 0000 060916 1200 060917 0000 060917 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 43.3W 17.9N 44.9W 18.8N 46.2W 19.5N 47.4W
BAMM 16.9N 43.3W 18.1N 45.0W 19.2N 46.4W 19.9N 48.0W
A98E 16.9N 43.3W 18.2N 45.8W 19.2N 48.0W 20.0N 49.9W
LBAR 16.9N 43.3W 18.3N 45.3W 19.2N 46.9W 19.9N 48.4W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 80KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 80KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 0000 060919 0000 060920 0000 060921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 48.5W 21.9N 50.3W 23.5N 52.8W 26.1N 55.2W
BAMM 20.6N 49.4W 21.6N 51.3W 22.6N 53.4W 24.7N 54.9W
A98E 20.1N 52.0W 19.4N 56.2W 16.8N 60.1W 13.8N 62.4W
LBAR 20.4N 49.9W 21.0N 53.0W 21.4N 56.6W 21.5N 59.1W
SHIP 84KTS 87KTS 89KTS 89KTS
DSHP 84KTS 87KTS 89KTS 89KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 40.8W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM
Interesting the track of LBAR but I know is not the best model to follow.The models keep Helene as a storm.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 0000 060916 1200 060917 0000 060917 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 43.3W 17.9N 44.9W 18.8N 46.2W 19.5N 47.4W
BAMM 16.9N 43.3W 18.1N 45.0W 19.2N 46.4W 19.9N 48.0W
A98E 16.9N 43.3W 18.2N 45.8W 19.2N 48.0W 20.0N 49.9W
LBAR 16.9N 43.3W 18.3N 45.3W 19.2N 46.9W 19.9N 48.4W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 80KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 80KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 0000 060919 0000 060920 0000 060921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 48.5W 21.9N 50.3W 23.5N 52.8W 26.1N 55.2W
BAMM 20.6N 49.4W 21.6N 51.3W 22.6N 53.4W 24.7N 54.9W
A98E 20.1N 52.0W 19.4N 56.2W 16.8N 60.1W 13.8N 62.4W
LBAR 20.4N 49.9W 21.0N 53.0W 21.4N 56.6W 21.5N 59.1W
SHIP 84KTS 87KTS 89KTS 89KTS
DSHP 84KTS 87KTS 89KTS 89KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 40.8W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM
Interesting the track of LBAR but I know is not the best model to follow.The models keep Helene as a storm.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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HurricaneHunter914
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If this continues, she might be at 80-90 mph at the 5 AM.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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brunota2003
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Here is a thread with links to acronyms commonly used: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88557Toadstool wrote:HURAKAN wrote:CDO DEVELOPING?
Possibly... depends on what a CDO is!
Is there a list of acronyms used on this website?
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Luis,
That nice dry air you are having from the south this evening is the western side of a high pressure flow.
The LBAR and A98E models must have Helene catching up with the eastern edge of the high as it builds later in the forecast period. The steering would be more out of the north in such a scenario?
She is really spinning up this evening and her forward speed is a little slower, both good things to keep her from getting under the eastern edge of that high.
That nice dry air you are having from the south this evening is the western side of a high pressure flow.
The LBAR and A98E models must have Helene catching up with the eastern edge of the high as it builds later in the forecast period. The steering would be more out of the north in such a scenario?
She is really spinning up this evening and her forward speed is a little slower, both good things to keep her from getting under the eastern edge of that high.
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Derek Ortt
brunota2003 wrote:Here is a thread with links to acronyms commonly used: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88557Toadstool wrote:HURAKAN wrote:CDO DEVELOPING?
Possibly... depends on what a CDO is!
Is there a list of acronyms used on this website?
Thanks! It would be nice to have something besides a thread that just is a list of definitions (quick reference guide I suppose). I'll even put it together if need be.
For Helene, the stronger she gets (up to Cat 3 I see), does that mean she can steer herself westward regardless of the pressure ridge (or lack thereof) north?
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Lowpressure
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