Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[boca]

Center looks to be ESE of the red high tops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

Why am I not worried about 93L? Maybe it's because I shouldn't be.

I know some of you are just "dying" for anything that is tropical in nature but come on now it's almost November. I can smell the turkey in the oven already.

[gatorcane]

Why am I not worried about 93L? Maybe it's because I shouldn't be.

I know some of you are just "dying" for anything that is tropical in nature but come on now it's almost November. I can smell the turkey in the oven already.

How about some crow in the oven this year?

[boca]

Stormcenter you got me hungry for turkey and stuffing can't wait.

[Stormcenter]

Why am I not worried about 93L? Maybe it's because I shouldn't be.

I know some of you are just "dying" for anything that is tropical in nature but come on now it's almost November. I can smell the turkey in the oven already.

How about some crow in the oven this year?

I haven't had to eat any this year so far. I was one the few on this board that back in early August said this season had the makings of an average to below avearge season despite all of the doom and gloom talk. Like I said you may get a tropical system out this but to think it will affect the U.S. mainland is really stretching it. IMO You have a better chance of some homegrown GOM or even a NW Carribean system.

[Dynamic]

from the NWS San Juan, PR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1114 AM AST FRI OCT 27 2006

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR ADDIDIONAL SHOWERS OBSERVED. ELSE...SAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT. FLOW IS
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AT 250 MB AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS AT 500 MB.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT 28 NORTH 50 WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A CONVERGENCE ZONE TRAILS FROM THIS
POINT SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21 NORTH AND THEN
WEST ALONG 20 NORTH TO CUBA. IT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THIS AREA. THIS
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS NOW MOVING LITTLE FROM PUERTO RICO WEST. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS
CONTINUING WEST. A TROUGH IS MOVING WEST OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 10 TO
16 NORTH AND CENTERED NEAR 53 WEST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE CARRIED ON EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PASS
BY THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL ABOVE TWO INCHES OVER
SAN JUAN AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY. TONIGHT
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...BUT IT DOES NOT
SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
ALLOWS MAXIMUM MOISTURE AS DETERMINED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
REMAIN WEST OF US AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT PRESENT THE WAVE NEAR 53 WEST DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...AND DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS GENERALLY DISAPPEARED EACH EVENING
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS
TO BE ABOUT 14 KNOTS TO THE WEST AS GAUGED BY THE AXIS OF TURNING
FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS BRINGS IN SOUTHEAST FLOW BY
SATURDAY AND THE MOISTURE DECREASES CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH
MOVES ALONG AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AND IS SEEN OVER FAJARDO BY
06Z SUNDAY. SO CURRENTLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND SOME MORE SATURDAY...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHARPLY SUNDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN BE
LIMITED IN THE EAST IN THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS AND LESS
VIGOROUS IN THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON...THOUGH AT NO TIME WOULD ONE
EXPECT IT TO BE ABSENT. ANOTHER WEAK PEAK OF ACTIVITY OCCURS ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

I don't give a chance to this one.

[gatorcane]

lets all wait for the next TWO

[Damar91]

Probably wont matter but.........http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[gatorcane]

I notice the member logins have been creeping up lately probably curious about what the heck is going on this late in the season with 93L entering the Caribbean.

[Opal storm]

Why am I not worried about 93L? Maybe it's because I shouldn't be.

I know some of you are just "dying" for anything that is tropical in nature but come on now it's almost November. I can smell the turkey in the oven already.

I don't think anybody is worried over 93L nor are we "dying" for another storm, we are just discussing about it.

[Stormcenter]

I notice the member logins have been creeping up lately probably curious about what the heck is going on this late in the season with 93L entering the Caribbean.

We have 24 members right now on the Tropics site and that is as low as it has been since I've been on this board. I think everyone went to the Winter board.

[Stormcenter]

Why am I not worried about 93L? Maybe it's because I shouldn't be.

I know some of you are just "dying" for anything that is tropical in nature but come on now it's almost November. I can smell the turkey in the oven already.

I don't think anybody is worried over 93L nor are we "dying" for another storm, we are just discussing about it.

I'm sorry but I said "some" and not all.

[cycloneye]

Barbados Observations

There haved been west to NW winds in Barbados this afternoon.

[Opal storm]

I'm willing to bet anyone my paycheck that 93L won't make it into the western Caribbean and will probably dissipate in 36 to 48 hours. Folks this is 2006 not 2005, we had a losing battle since August of anything getting past 60W this will not be the exception. Rest in peace 06 I'm ready for 2007.

I agree it will probably dissipate over the weekend,western Caribbean has not been very favorable this year.Maybe if it turns more north and stays over the Atlantic it may have a better chance.

[fci]

Believe it Boca. Just because most of 2006 has been unfavorable west of 60W doesn't mean we can't get something now.....

That track is getting dangerously close to Florida, although there is still time for anything to happen

Chris:
Dangerously close to WHAT??

IF, and again I say IF; this system came up here (hard to imagine with another front coming through this weekend; what do you think it would bring us anyway?

NOT a Hurricane or even a TS; maybe, MAYBE a Depression... if that.

If you want to take any bets on this, I am all ears ( I could use some spending money)

[Opal storm]

Believe it Boca. Just because most of 2006 has been unfavorable west of 60W doesn't mean we can't get something now.....

That track is getting dangerously close to Florida, although there is still time for anything to happen

Chris:
Dangerously close to WHAT??

IF, and again I say IF; this system came up here (hard to imagine with another front coming through this weekend; what do you think it would bring us anyway?

NOT a Hurricane or even a TS; maybe, MAYBE a Depression... if that.

If you want to take any bets on this, I am all ears ( I could use some spending money)

Yeah I agree...the worst that could happen is that it brings some rain to Florida which you guys actually need some rain down there so it would'nt be a bad thing.

[Stormcenter]

Here is some more proof we have nothing to worry about.
We have another STRONG cold front coming down south for
next Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...


A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP COLD POOL AND
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

[dwsqos2]

Hewanorra, St. Lucia has been reporting light westerly winds (4-7 knots) since 1700 GMT.

TLPL 271700Z 27007KT 9999 SCT016CB BKN025 30/25 Q1011
TLPL 271800Z 23004KT 9999 -SHRA SCT015CB BKN022 28/26 Q1010
TLPL 271900Z 23007KT 9999 FEW015CB SCT280 29/25 Q1010
TLPL 272000Z 25007KT 7000 VCSH SCT014CB BKN020 28/26 Q1010 RMK CB+JP/ALL QDS

27 October History for WMO 78948

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 272102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF BARBADOS AND
ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[Derek Ortt]

there has been a whole 1 system that has formed in the GOM in November

Home grown GOM systems are so unlikely, that I do not even look at the GOM for genesis in November or even late October

as or our current system, its a disorganized mess and if it were to develop (which it has an outside shot), it should be slow