GFS,NOGAPS,CMC,UKMET - Southwest Caribbean Development?

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wxman57
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#81 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 13, 2006 2:25 pm

Blown_away wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 131603
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Still nothing per NHC...


The NHC generally only considers potential development over the next 24 hours. There's certainly no chance of that, so the NHC won't mention any chance of development in 4-5 days.
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#82 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 13, 2006 4:04 pm

18z NAM

Nam is at storm strengh at this 18z run.
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#83 Postby hial2 » Mon Nov 13, 2006 4:43 pm

hial2 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:18z NAM

Nam is at storm strengh at this 18z run.


At the end of the run, you can see 'The Wall" (Apologies to Pink Floyd)
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 13, 2006 6:04 pm

18z GFS

:uarrow: :uarrow:

What this 18z run of the GFS model shows that every run is different in terms of strengh and the timeframe.Now this run shows a weak low pressure but not developing in the early part of the run.But later in the run it really develops into a strong storm that moves Northeast towards Haiti and Bahamas.
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#85 Postby boca » Mon Nov 13, 2006 6:08 pm

Who wants to bet some green that nothing develops down there this is 2006.
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#86 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 13, 2006 6:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z GFS

:uarrow: :uarrow:

What this 18z run of the GFS model shows that every run is different in terms of strengh and the timeframe.Now this run shows a weak low pressure but not developing in the early part of the run.But later in the run it really develops into a strong storm that moves Northeast towards Haiti and Bahamas.


Typicall GFS delaying. Nothing this Friday developing. No, it's NEXT week now. Odds of anything actually developing are slim. Model consensus is dwindling.
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#87 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 13, 2006 6:19 pm

Model consensus is dwindling.


I agree that they are not as strong in terms of developing since this morning's runs but still some are more strong than others.I say wait until tommorow to see a definite trend towards losing it or not from all the global models.If after tommorow the trend towards dwindiling continues then nothing will happen.
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#88 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 13, 2006 10:03 pm

00z NAM

:uarrow: :uarrow:

The 00z NAM continues to show a storm.And the Cold Front that will protect the U.S shows up well,if it develops at all because there is a big if.
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#89 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 6:42 am

06Z GFS shows no development now.
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#90 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 14, 2006 6:44 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The latest runs from the globals are a mix bag this morning.On one hand the GFS model drops completly the system.However NOGAPS and the Canadian model are still showing the system with CMC being the most stronger of the two.And the UKMET model is with a very weak low but nothing more.So there you have the complete view from the models that are divided about this.Let's see in the runs later today if NOGAPS,CMC and UKMET drop it or they stay with the system.

In other words the so called global model consensus is cracking a bit.
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#91 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Nov 14, 2006 8:12 am

Almost time for me to fire up some old fashioned Carolina Bar-B-Crow! The globals have let me down again! Or should I say the Atlantic Basin has....dang it. Should have known better....not just an 80s Richard Marx song...but the catch phrase of 2006!
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#92 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 14, 2006 8:18 am

7:05 AM EST TWDAT:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS ARE CURVED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. THE FLOW AROUND THE WAVE
MAY BE JUST PART OF THE TRADEWIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. PRECIPITATION
WHICH HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W
IS WEAKER NOW AND DISSIPATING IN SOME PLACES. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N48W TO 24N51W TO 16N57W TO THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO
24N51W TO 16N57W TO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
VENEZUELA. PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM
16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W IS WEAKER NOW AND DISSIPATING
IN SOME PLACES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE
ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
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#93 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:42 am

Looks like something is starting to brew north of Panama....big thunderstorm complex....
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#94 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 14, 2006 10:17 am

hurricanetrack wrote:Almost time for me to fire up some old fashioned Carolina Bar-B-Crow! The globals have let me down again! Or should I say the Atlantic Basin has....dang it. Should have known better....not just an 80s Richard Marx song...but the catch phrase of 2006!


12z NAM

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Mark,even the NAM has now a weaker system than in past runs. :)
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#95 Postby CourierPR » Tue Nov 14, 2006 11:20 am

Isn't it true that the models don't handle well late season development? I would look to satellite images now to monitor any development north of Panama.
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#96 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 14, 2006 12:54 pm

12z CMC

:uarrow: :uarrow:

The Canadian model now is the loner in terms of strengh as at this 12z run it has a hurricane.

12z GFS

:uarrow: :uarrow:

One word for the 12z GFS=Nothing

12z UKMET

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Also the 12z UKMET=Nothing

12z NOGAPS

:uarrow: :uarrow:

The 12z NOGAPS has almost nothing.

The global models consensus is more cracked now.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#97 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 14, 2006 12:56 pm

Nice little spin near 10/79.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
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#98 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:22 pm

CourierPR wrote:Isn't it true that the models don't handle well late season development? I would look to satellite images now to monitor any development north of Panama.


Yes, that's quite true. They also have great difficulty with early, mid, pre, and post-season development.
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#99 Postby Aquawind » Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CourierPR wrote:Isn't it true that the models don't handle well late season development? I would look to satellite images now to monitor any development north of Panama.


Yes, that's quite true. They also have great difficulty with early, mid, pre, and post-season development.



:lol: :lol:

Badda Bing!
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#100 Postby MGC » Tue Nov 14, 2006 5:18 pm

Nothing is going to develope, EPAC is too active. Besides Sergio there also appears to be something trying to get going south of Costa Rica. EPAC is a good place for them, little chance they will do much damage there......MGC
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