Reunion: TC Gamede (15S); World Rainfall records established

[Category 5]

Sunrise

[img][/img]

[Category 5]

Looks like she's grown a nice tail.

[Crostorm]

The airport of Gillot was reopened with the traffic and six planes of the companies Air France, Corsair and Southern Air are awaited from metropolis today. Moreover the minister of in addition to sea asked for the state of natural disaster for the island. The cyclone with slightly weakened while passing of category 2/5 on the scale of Saffir Simpson, but could be again reinforced…
Here characteristics of Gamede with 10h00:
Cyclone of category 2/5 on the scale of Saffir Simpson Moderate winds: 175 km/h Winds in gusts:
212 km/h close to the center Pressure:
940 hpa Located at approximately 385 km in the North-West of the Meeting Direction:
West at the mean velocity of 5 km/h

Some news,video and pictures from La Reunion
http://www.meteo-world.com/news/index-1186.php

[P.K.]

That above page mentions two deaths in Mauritius from Gamede.

[Chacor]

Madagascar warning:

Activité cyclonique : Dans l’Océan Indien, la perturbation cyclonique "Gamède" se déplace lentement vers l’ouest en s’approchant progressivement des Cotes-Est malagasy. A 09h locales son centre est localise a 400 km a l’est de Toamasina. De pluies accompagnées parfois de coups de vents dépassant 80 km/h sont observées sur le littoral est de l’ile. Par conséquent, les avis d’alertes lances aux districts suivants restent en vigueur :
Avis de menace : Andilamena - Amparafaravola - Ambatondrazaka - Moramanga - Anosibe An’ala – Marolambo.
Avis d’avertissement : Nosy-Varika - Fandriana - Ifanadiana - Mananjary - Ikongo -Manakara - Vondrozo -Vohipeno - Farafangana - Midongy-Atsimo - Vangaindrano - Befotaka - Amboasary – Taolagnaro.
Avis de danger imminent :Antalaha - Maroantsetra - Mananara-Nord -Soanierana-Ivongo -Sainte-Marie -Vavatenina -Fenerive-Est - Toamasina I-II - Brickaville -Vatomandry -Antanambao - Manampotsy - Mahanoro.
Les pêcheurs des cotes entre Sambava et Mananjary sont priés de ne plus sortir en mer car elle sera très grosse.

COMMENTAIRES
La bande spirale qui la précède s’est installée sur les cotes Est de l’île et y provoque des pluies accompagnées parfois de coups de vents dépassant 80 km/h. Les pêcheurs des cotes comprises entre Sambava et Mananjary sont pries de ne plus sortir en mer car elle sera très grosse. Avis d’alertes en cours.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rainfall over northern Madagascar.

[Aslkahuna]

Reunion, of course, holds the 24 hour World's record for rainfall at 76 inches.

Steve

[Ptarmigan]

Reunion, of course, holds the 24 hour World's record for rainfall at 76 inches.

Steve

Also, they the rain record for 48 hours, 5 days, and 10 days. The reason for that is the geography of Reunion Island, which is a mountainous area. Mountainous areas on the windward side are wetter because they draw all the moisture. That would explain why Hurricane Mitch dumped 95 inches of rain on Central America and Mt. Wailakea (spelling?) having 460 inches of rain a year. Wettest parts of the world are in tropical areas that are mountainous.

[Category 5]

4. What are the largest rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones?


12 hr 1144 mm (45.0") Foc-Foc, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Denise 7-8 January, 1966

24 hr 1825 mm (71.8") Foc-Foc, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Denise 7-8 January, 1966

48 hr 2467 mm (97.1") Aurere, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone 8-10 April, 1958

72 hr 3240 mm (127.6") Grand-Ilet, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe 24-27 January, 1980

10 day 5678 mm (223.5") Commerson, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe 18-27 January, 1980

[Aslkahuna]

Yes, I know that about rainfall having lived in the Tropics for nearly 10 years. In HI, the difference between the windward and leeward sides of the islands is very noticeable. The windward slopes below the Trade Inversion get dumped on. On the leeward side there are places that don't even get out of the arid classification because they get less than 20 inches of rain a year and cactus grows there. Above the Trade Inversion the direst air outside of Antarctica can be found which is why so much IR Astronomy work is done on Mauna Kea. The upwelling zones along west coasts of Continents also share this characteristic which is why Chile is such a Mecca for Astronomy.

Steve

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 034
WTIO30 FMEE 270005
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE)
2.A POSITION 2007/02/27 AT 0000 UTC :
18.7S / 53.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 700 SO: 500 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 21.6S/51.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 23.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 25.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 26.5S/49.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 28.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- ; CI=5.5-
SINCE YESTERDAY, GAMEDE SHOWS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS PATTERN. INNER
EYE
STARTS TO DISAPPEAR. THIS BEGINNING OF AN EYE CYCLE EXPLAINS THE
DECREASING FLUCTUATION OF THE INTENSITY.
GAMEDE STILL PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH AN IMPORTANT
STRONG
WINDS EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY TWO COMPETITING UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS: ONE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARDS,
AND
ANOTHER NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STEERING GAMEDE SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIG
H LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR HAS WEAKENED, ALLOWING GAMEDE TO TRACK
SOUTHWARDS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHALL BE FAVOURABLE FOR ANOTHER
INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Coredesat]

That dry air really destroyed the convection. It might be on the fast track to remnant low-ville.

[Chacor]

BULLETIN DU 27 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

ALERTE ORANGE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************


NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL GAMEDE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 950 HPA.
POSITION LE 27 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.5 SUD / 52.9 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 300 KM A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 22.5S/52.1E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 25.1S/51.1E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 27.6S/50.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

Météo-Francce has re-instated the orange alert.

Madagascar 07 Heures locales:

Activité cyclonique - situation ce 27/02/2007 à 7h HL :
"Gamede" a bifurqué son déplacement vers le Sud-Sud-Est. Des pluies accompagnées parfois de coups de vents dépassent 70 km/h seront encore observées sur les cotes centre et sud-est de l’île. Les pêcheurs des cotes comprises entre Toamasina et Taolagnaro sont pries de ne plus sortir en mer car elle sera très grosse. Avis d’alertes en cours.
Avis d'avertissement : Ambositra - Fianarantsoa I - II - Ambalavao - Ivohibe - Iakora - Betroka - Bekily - Ambovombe - Beloha - Tsihombe
Avis de menace : Anosibe an’ala - Marolambo - Nosy-Varika - Fandriana - Ifanadiana - Mananjary - Ikongo - Manakara - Vondrozo - Vohipeno - Farafangana - Midongy-atsimo - Vangaindrano - Befotaka - Amboasary - Taolagnaro
Avis de danger imminent : Brickaville - Vatomandry - Antanambao -Manampotsy - Mahanoro
Adis d'alertes levées :Antalaha - Maroantsetra - Mananara-Nord -Soanierana-ivongo -Sainte-marie - Vavatenina - Fenerive-Est - Toamasina I-II - Andilamena - Amparafaravola - Ambatondrazaka -Moramanga

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS LOST THE MAJORITY OF ITS OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DE-
CREASE IN CONVECTION CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A LOCAL DECREASE IN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE DUE TO INCREASED UPWELLING
AND MIXING DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE STORM WAS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
STORM HAS NOW BEGUN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
HAS BROKEN DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) PREVIOUSLY OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. THE STR HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A COMPETING STEERING IN-
FLUENCE WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC
15S, THUS INDUCING THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE NER HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD, AND IS NOW THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM.
TC 15S WILL CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NER THROUGH TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN IN-
CREASE IN SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM
THE SELF-INDUCED LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW IS EN-
HANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. PAST TAU 24,
TC 15S WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW 261500).//

[P.K.]

Red alert for La Reunion again.

[Chacor]

Damn.

Here are two IHT articles:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/02/ ... yclone.php
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/02/ ... yclone.php

Francois Baroin, French overseas minister, arrived on Reunion Tuesday and said he would stay through the red alert.

Baroin already said the French state will pay to reconstruct a bridge that collapsed near the southern town of Saint-Louis over the weekend. The costs were estimated at about €20 million (US$26.32 million).

[Chacor]

143
WTIO22 FMEE 271812
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2007
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 27/02/2007 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 52.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200
NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER , EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/02/28 AT 06 UTC:
23.4S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2007/02/28 AT 18 UTC:
25.3S / 51.5E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "GAMEDE" ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY ALONG ITS
SOUTHWARDS TRACK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, IT IS EXPETCED TO
HEAD FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND TO TRACK AWAY FROM MASCARENES ISLANDS.
"GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, THE STRONG WINDS EXTENSION IS
IMPORTANT. THE CURRENT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSITORY AND AN INTENSIFICATION IS
FORSEEN WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.=

[P.K.]

Here is the full 72 hour forecast. That 24 hour forecast point in the marine warning is the forecast peak.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 500 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/28 06 UTC: 23.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/28 18 UTC: 25.3S/51.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2007/03/01 06 UTC: 27.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/03/01 18 UTC: 28.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/03/02 06 UTC: 30.1S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/03/02 18 UTC: 31.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

[Ptarmigan]

4. What are the largest rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones?


12 hr 1144 mm (45.0") Foc-Foc, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Denise 7-8 January, 1966

24 hr 1825 mm (71.8") Foc-Foc, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Denise 7-8 January, 1966

48 hr 2467 mm (97.1") Aurere, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone 8-10 April, 1958

72 hr 3240 mm (127.6") Grand-Ilet, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe 24-27 January, 1980

10 day 5678 mm (223.5") Commerson, La Reunion Island Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe 18-27 January, 1980

All I can say is YIKES!!!!!!

Think about all that rain falling anywhere. It would be a catastrophe, especially if it was in New York or New Orleans.