TC George: preliminary report issued

[ncupsscweather]

yea thanks for the link

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1232UTC 8 MARCH 2007

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone George located within 10 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal nine south [19.9S]
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal one east [119.1E]
Recent movement : south at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 105 knots
Central pressure: 910 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 105 knots near centre.

Within 90 nautical miles of centre:
clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Within 65 nautical miles of centre:
winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds easing below 48 knots after cyclone moves over land.

Within 20 nautical miles of centre : winds above 64 knots with very high to
phenomenal seas. Winds easing below 64 knots after cyclone moves over land.

At 0000 UTC 09 March: Within 30 nautical miles of 22.4 south 119.2 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 09 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 24.3 south 119.5 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 08 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH
________________________________________________

Why hurricane force winds and not cyclone force winds???

[P.K.]

Port Hedland radar appears to be down, gusting to 145km/h there ten minutes ago.

[P.K.]

Why hurricane force winds and not cyclone force winds???

Hurricane force on the Beaufort scale which you'll see used in several of the MetArea bulletins around the world.

[ncupsscweather]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Dampier and Sandfire Roadhouse are
requested to sound the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

FLASH TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 44
Issued at 9:50 pm WDT on Thursday, 8 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 cyclone is now current for coastal
areas from Dampier to Sandfire Roadhouse and inland to Tom Price, Newman,
Paraburdoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine.

At 9:30 pm WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone George was estimated to be
55 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
60 kilometres west northwest of Pardoo
and was moving south south west at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George is in the process of crossing the coast near Port
Hedland. Over the past 30 minutes the cyclone has taken a more south
southwesterly path. On the current track it is expected to pass within 30
kilometres to east of Port Hedland in the next hour or two.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 275 kilometres per hour will be experienced
close to the cyclone centre as the system crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 170 kilometres per hour have developed on the
central Pilbara coast between Port Hedland and Pardoo, and will extend inland
with the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected through the
remaining parts of the warning area overnight and tomorrow.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN and FLOODING are likely across the Pilbara, with falls in
excess of 200 millimetres possible close to the cyclone track.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek.

Residents on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek including Port
Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE
as the cyclone crosses the coast. On the current track Port Hedland is
specifically under threat. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding and damaging waves.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone George at 9:30 pm WDT.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 20.0 south longitude 119.0 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 910 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 275 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities of Port Hedland, Whim Creek,
Pardoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse
and Dampier including Roebourne, Wickham, Karratha, Point Samson, Dampier and in
or near the inland communities of Tom Price, Pannawonica and Paraburdoo should
be taking action in readiness for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm WDT Thursday 08 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[Chacor]

196
TPXS10 KGWC 081233
A. TROPICAL CYCL0NE 17S (GEORGE)
B. 08/1131Z (12)
C. 19.9S/9
D. 118.9E/9
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS/ STT: D1.0/06HRS -08/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

07A/ PBO 07NM RGD EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE IS LOCATED
31NM INTO THE CMG TEMP SHADE FOR AN E6.5. ADDED 0.5
FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT WITH OW EYE AND CDG RING FOR A DT
OF 7.0. FT BASED ON PT. MET WAS UNREP AT 5.5. DVORAK
MET CONSTRAINTS BKN TO ESTABLISH FT.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WOW 6.5t,,,the eye got really well defined as it was making landfall. JTWC just upgraded it as it is moving inland to 110 knots.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 45
Issued at 11:05 pm WDT on Thursday, 8 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 cyclone is now current for coastal
areas from Dampier to Sandfire Roadhouse and inland to Tom Price, Newman,
Paraburdoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine.

At 11:00 pm WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone George was estimated to be
40 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
70 kilometres west of Pardoo
and moving south southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George is in the process of crossing the coast near Port
Hedland. Over the past hour minutes the cyclone has taken a more south
southwesterly path. On the current track it is expected to pass within 30
kilometres to east of Port Hedland in the next hour.

Recent observations at Bedout Island indicate gusts to 275 kilometres per hour
are occurring near the centre of the cyclone.

During the morning the system may move close to Marble Bar as a Category 3 or 4
system.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 275 kilometres per hour will be experienced
close to the cyclone centre as the system crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 170 kilometres per hour have developed on the
central Pilbara coast between Port Hedland and Pardoo, and will extend inland
with the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected through the
remaining parts of the warning area overnight and tomorrow.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN and FLOODING are likely across the Pilbara, with falls in
excess of 200 millimetres possible close to the cyclone track.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek.

Residents on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek including Port
Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE
as the cyclone crosses the coast. On the current track Port Hedland is
specifically under threat. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding and damaging waves.

Advices will be issued at 15 minutes past the hour for the immediate future.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone George at 11:00 pm WDT.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 20.1 south longitude 118.9 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 17 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 910 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 275 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities of Port Hedland, Whim Creek,
Pardoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse
and Dampier including Roebourne, Wickham, Karratha, Point Samson, Dampier and in
or near the inland communities of Tom Price, Pannawonica and Paraburdoo should
be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 12:15 am WDT Friday 09 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[CrazyC83]

WOW 6.5t,,,the eye got really well defined as it was making landfall. JTWC just upgraded it as it is moving inland to 110 knots.

110 kts (1-min sustained) or 110 kts (10-min sustained)? If the former, it was an SS Cat 3 at landfall, although 910mb is incredibly low for a Cat 3.

[Chacor]

WOW 6.5t,,,the eye got really well defined as it was making landfall. JTWC just upgraded it as it is moving inland to 110 knots.

110 kts (1-min sustained) or 110 kts (10-min sustained)? If the former, it was an SS Cat 3 at landfall, although 910mb is incredibly low for a Cat 3.

JTWC has it as 110kt right now, and BOM at 105 kt.

[P.K.]

Down to 963.7hPa in Port Hedland now.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 46
Issued at 12:25 am WDT on Friday, 9 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 cyclone is now current for coastal
areas from Dampier to Sandfire Roadhouse and inland to Tom Price, Newman,
Paraburdoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine.

At 12:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone George was estimated to be
43 kilometres east southeast of Port Hedland and
115 kilometres northwest of Marble Bar
and moving south at 19 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George has crossed the coast at 10 pm just to the east
of Port Hedland with VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds gusts to 275 kilometres per hour.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are occurring in the vicinity of Port Hedland and should
continue for the next few hours before easing as the system continues to move
further south over the inland Pilbara.

Recent observations at Bedout Island indicate gusts to 275 kilometres per hour
are occurring near the centre of the cyclone.

During the morning the system may move close to Marble Bar as a Category 3 or 4
system.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 275 kilometres per hour will be experienced
close to the centre. Winds should ease this morning as the cyclone begins to
weaken inland.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may extend inland to
Newman during the day near the cyclone track.

GALES with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected through the
remaining parts of the warning area today.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN and FLOODING are likely across the Pilbara, with falls in
excess of 200 millimetres possible close to the cyclone track.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
Sandfire Roadhouse and Port Hedland.

Residents on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Port Hedland, are
specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides are
likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with very dangerous
flooding and damaging waves.

Advices will be issued at 15 minutes past the hour for the immediate future.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone George at 12:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 20.4 south longitude 119.0 east
Recent movement : south at 19 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 910 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 275 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities of Port Hedland, Whim Creek,
Pardoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse
and Dampier including Roebourne, Wickham, Karratha, Point Samson, Dampier and in
or near the inland communities of Tom Price, Pannawonica and Paraburdoo should
be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am WDT Friday 09 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

__________________________________________________

Port Hedland's radar is down.

[HURAKAN]

Eye remains well-developed even though it's fully inland.

[ncupsscweather]

[KatDaddy]

Port Hedland is taking a beating from a well defined TC. Wind obs not recording and radar is down.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 47
Issued at 1:15 am WDT on Friday, 9 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 cyclone is now current for coastal
areas from Dampier to Sandfire Roadhouse and inland to Tom Price, Newman,
Paraburdoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine

At 1:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone George was estimated to be
47 kilometres south southeast of Port Hedland and
110 kilometres west northwest of Marble Bar
and moving south southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George has crossed the coast at 10 pm just to the east
of Port Hedland with VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds gusts to 275 kilometres per hour.
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds have since occurred in the vicinity of Port Hedland as
the cyclone moves to the south southwest. Winds should begin to ease in the
next few hours as the system moves on a south or south southwest track further
inland.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may extend inland to
Marble Bar this morning extending further south towards Newman during the day.

GALES with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected through the
remaining parts of the warning area today.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN and FLOODING are likely across the Pilbara, with falls in
excess of 200 millimetres possible close to the cyclone track.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
Sandfire Roadhouse and Port Hedland.

Advices will be issued at 15 minutes past the hour for the immediate future.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone George at 1:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 20.7 south longitude 118.8 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 916 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 270 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities of Port Hedland, Whim Creek,
Pardoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse
and Dampier including Roebourne, Wickham, Karratha, Point Samson, Dampier and in
or near the inland communities of Tom Price, Pannawonica and Paraburdoo should
be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 2:15 am WDT Friday 09 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Tiny eye before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Eye continues to be very well-defined a few miles inland.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 48
Issued at 2:35 am WDT on Friday, 9 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 cyclone is now current for coastal
areas from Dampier to Sandfire Roadhouse and inland to Tom Price, Newman,
Paraburdoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine

At 2:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone George was estimated to be
55 kilometres south southeast of Port Hedland and
105 kilometres west northwest of Marble Bar
and moving south at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George is now moving over inland parts of the Pilbara
south of Port Hedland towards Yandeyarra and West Angeles. VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds are still possible near the track in the next six hours although the
cyclone should weaken as it progresses inland.

At Port Hedland VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds have most likely ceased at Port Hedland
but DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are still possible
for the next few hours. Winds should progressively ease throughout the day as
the system moves on a south or south southwest track further inland.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may extend inland to
Marble Bar this morning extending further south towards Tom Price and Newman
during the day.

GALES with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected through the
remaining parts of the warning area today.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN and FLOODING are likely across the Pilbara, with falls in
excess of 200 millimetres possible close to the cyclone track.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast east of Port
Hedland towards Sandfire Roadhouse.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George earlier crossed the coast at 10 pm just to the
east of Port Hedland with VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds gusts to 275 kilometres per
hour. Port Hedland experienced the western side of the VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of
the cyclone between 10pm and midnight.

Advices will be issued at 15 minutes past the hour for the immediate future.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone George at 2:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 20.8 south longitude 118.8 east
Recent movement : south at 20 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 916 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 270 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities of Port Hedland, Whim Creek,
Pardoo, Marble Bar and Nullagine should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Sandfire Roadhouse
and Dampier including Roebourne, Wickham, Karratha, Point Samson, Dampier and in
or near the inland communities of Tom Price, Pannawonica and Paraburdoo should
be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 3:15 am WDT Friday 09 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

________________________________________________________

Weakening at a slow rate at the moment.

[P.K.]

Note the comment in the last technical summary that it reached T6.5 at landfall, up on T6.0 at hour before. Looks like we have another Larry situation here where they'll have to decide on cat 4 or cat 5 at landfall.