Madagascar: Indlala (19S): Dissipated

[HURAKAN]

[marq=up][font=Georgia]Western eyewall making landfall.[/font][/marq]

[P.K.]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/12/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 50.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 330 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 15.6S/49.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.5S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 18.0S/47.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ; CI=5.5+
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "INDLALA" IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER
MASOALA PENINSULA, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA. THIS LANDFALL OCCURS AS
THE SYSTEM REACH A PEAK OF INTENSITY DURING AN EYE CYCLE. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SLIGHTLY ALTERS
THE MAIN CONV
ECTIVE BAND STRUCTURE. ANYWAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS SHALL
KEEP ON OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF "INDLALA"
IS FORSEEN ONLY AFTER 24 HOURS, ONCE THE CYCLONE HAS GOT ACROSS ANTONGIL
BAY.

[Category 5]

I've given him/her a spot in my 2007 photobucket

http://s170.photobucket.com/albums/u253 ... n/Indlala/

[HURAKAN]

LANDFALL.

[HURAKAN]

I've given him/her a spot in my 2007 photobucket

http://s170.photobucket.com/albums/u253 ... n/Indlala/

Nice collection.

By the way, NRL saves all their pictures, you may want to get hold of a few more of them, especially during the first days of Indlala

Website of the IR archive of images:
INDLALA'S IR IMAGES



For example, this is the first Invest image of the disturbance that became Indlala.

[HurricaneBill]

Most intense Madagascar landfall since Gafilo in 2004. Gafilo landfalled as a Category 5. JTWC had Gafilo with 1-min winds of 140KT, while Reunion had Gafilo with 10-min winds of 125KT. Gafilo was at the highest level on Reunion's scale: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 150626

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/12/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 50.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 330 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 15.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 16.9S/47.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.8S/46.9E DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- ; CI=5.5
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "INDLALA" IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER
MASOALA PENINSULA, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA AFTER BUCKLING NORTHWARDS
WITHIN THE ENDING NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS SHALL KEEP ON OVER NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF "INDLALA" IS FORSEEN WITHIN 12 TO
18 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BEYOND 48 HOURS.

[AussieMark]

Most intense Madagascar landfall since Gafilo in 2004. Gafilo landfalled as a Category 5. JTWC had Gafilo with 1-min winds of 140KT, while Reunion had Gafilo with 10-min winds of 125KT. Gafilo was at the highest level on Reunion's scale: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone.

and that actually corresponds to 142 kts

so often when u convert what official agencies say to 1min

its lower to what JTWC say

often what JMA say is so much lower to what JTWC had the typhoon peaking at

[Aslkahuna]

JMA has no interest in the SIO. At any rate the differences between JMA and JTWC have been the subject of many discussions. The general consensus among the Met Agencies in WPAC is that JTWC tends to be too high and JMA too low on their intensities. When you consider that JMA basically allows for no storm to ever be equivalent to Cat 5 unless it's at the very top of the Dvorak rating, then you have a problem with underforecasting since recon data combined with Dvorak shows that equivalent Cat 5 intensity can occur below Dvorak 8.0.

Steve

[AussieMark]

yeah that was just an example

What I meant was the conversion rate to convert 10 min to 1 min is the 10 min divided by 0.88

sometimes when I have applied this have come with figures less than what JTWC had stated as their 1min speed

thats all I meant

sorry if I sounded like I was bashing JTWC

it was not my intent

[AussieMark]

Sandy u hyperlink that link u have

i.e

Code: Select all

[url=Site name]Text[/url]

[HURAKAN]

Sandy u hyperlink that link u have

i.e

Code: Select all

[url=Site name]Text[/url]

Thanks for the advise.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 151242

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/12/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 49.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 15.7S/48.6E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 16.3S/47.4E OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 17.9S/46.4E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 20.3S/45.9E OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 22.4S/46.4E OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 24.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN 12 HOURS AND BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND.
ITS RESTS SHOULD HOWEVER COME BACK OVER SEA IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY
WITHIN 72 HOURS.

Remnants expected to reach sea, then, maybe potentially regenerating.

[HURAKAN]

Weakening over land

[HURAKAN]

Some regeneration expected when remnants get back to water.

[Category 5]

Any damage reports?

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 160616

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/12/20062007
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 0600 UTC :
16.1S / 47.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.0S/46.8E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 18.5S/46.4E OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 20.2S/46.7E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 21.9S/47.8E OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/03/18 18 UTC: 23.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3S/50.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INDLALA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVERLAND.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.
INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE
RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
(STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR).

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 161151

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/12/20062007
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 1200 UTC :
16.6S / 47.1E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 18.7S/46.6E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 20.8S/47.0E OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 23.0S/47.6E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 26.1S/48.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/03/19 00 UTC: 30.3S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/03/19 12 UTC: 35.0S/51.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INDLALA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVERLAND.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NORTH TO 20S.
INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE
RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
(STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), THEN EVACUATE INTO THE TROUGH.

[Chacor]

934
TPXS10 KGWC 161240
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA)
B. 16/1131Z (15)
C. 16.5S/2
D. 47.2E/3
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24HRS/STT: S0.0/06HRS -16/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS
.40 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF T2.5. FT BASED
ON DT. PT SUPPORTS, WHILE MET YIELDED A T3.0.

KRAMER/WEAVER

Still T2.5 from AFWA and JTWC, despite being overland. SAB no longer tracking Indlala.

Still looks impressive on satellite.


[web]http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/saison/images/satellite/DerImageSatellite.jpg[/web]

[wxmann_91]

There are undoubtedly going to be severe flooding issues right now.