NWP: Developed Low former TS Kong-rey

[Chacor]

Further strengthened:

WTPQ20 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 17.3N 144.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 20.4N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 050600UTC 23.9N 149.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 060600UTC 26.2N 156.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

BULLETIN
TYPHOON KONG-REY (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 PM GUAM LST TUE APR 3 2007

...TYPHOON KONG-REY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN (INCLUDING PAGAN).
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KONG-REY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
235 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
185 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
110 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN AND
105 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN.

TYPHOON KONG-REY IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH. TYPHOON KONG-REY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 120 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AND
OUT TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM GUAM LST POSITION...17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.3
DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 80 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY.

$$

MILLER

[HURAKAN]

When I said it was compacting and getting ready to intensify it seems I was right on!!! It looks better than ever!!!

[Chacor]

No kidding, JMA just went higher than JTWC:

WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 17.7N 144.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 20.8N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 051200UTC 24.0N 150.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 061200UTC 26.2N 156.7E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 031329
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON KONG-REY (01W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
11 PM GUAM LST TUE APR 3 2007

..TYPHOON KONG-REY SHOWING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN (INCLUDING PAGAN).
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN.

AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KONG-REY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
250 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
200 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN AND
100 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN.

TYPHOON KONG-REY IS SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...ABOUT 10
MPH...IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD KEEP AGRIHAN AND
PAGAN UNDER THE THREAT OF TYPHOON FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 TO 105 MPH. TYPHOON
KONG-REY APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED AND SHOWS BETTER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 120 MILES OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 10 PM GUAM LST POSITION...17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.4
DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 95 TO 105 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY.

$$

MILLER

[hr]
95-105 mph ≈ 80 kt - 90 kt

[HURAKAN]

105 mph says NRL.

115 mph says Dvorak. 03/0900 UTC 17.5N 144.4E T5.5/5.5 KONG-REY -- West Pacific Ocean

[James]

What a turnaround it made in 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

[font=Georgia]1357:[/font]


[font=Georgia]1630:[/font]


Good times are short. Seems to be starting to give to Mid-Latitude elements.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still blowing 70kts (10 min) according to JMA's latest:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 19.9N 144.3E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 23.4N 148.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 060000UTC 24.8N 154.6E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Will start turning to the NE soon.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming less organized.

[Coredesat]

Starting to transition:

[HURAKAN]

T0701 (KONG-REY)
Issued at 09:00 UTC 4 Apr 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0701 KONG-REY (0701)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 21.4N 145.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 24.9N 152.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 060600UTC 25.6N 158.3E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Still tropical, but not for long.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0701 KONG-REY (0701) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 21.6N 145.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 24.3N 152.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 061200UTC 25.4N 157.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

910
FKPQ30 RJTD 051200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070405/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: KONG-REY
NR: 21
PSN: N2555 E15500
MOV: ENE 25KT
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/0000Z N2655 E15920 EXTRATROPICAL LOW
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/1200Z N2720 E16405 EXTRATROPICAL LOW
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 30KT
NXT MSG: 20070405/1800Z =

[HURAKAN]

Bye, bye!!!

[Chacor]

I just threw this together from the NCDC's NEXRAD radar archive:

[Chacor]

Well, much later than expected, but...

WTPQ20 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 27N 160E
MOVE E 25KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 250NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST =

[P.K.]

0701 has been bumped up to 80kts in the reanalysis. No change in the minimum pressure.

AXPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
PERIOD FROM MAR3012UTC TO APR0618UTC
3012 5.8N 158.2E 1008HPA //KT 3018 6.3N 158.1E 1004HPA //KT
3100 6.7N 157.9E 1006HPA //KT 3106 7.1N 156.6E 1004HPA //KT
3112 7.6N 155.5E 1004HPA //KT 3118 8.8N 154.2E 1002HPA //KT
0100 9.7N 152.8E 1000HPA 35KT 0106 10.2N 152.1E 996HPA 40KT
0112 10.5N 151.4E 990HPA 45KT 0118 11.2N 150.8E 990HPA 50KT
0200 12.2N 149.7E 990HPA 50KT 0206 13.4N 148.9E 985HPA 55KT
0212 14.5N 147.7E 985HPA 55KT 0218 15.2N 147.0E 985HPA 55KT
0300 16.1N 145.6E 980HPA 65KT 0306 16.8N 144.7E 970HPA 70KT
0312 17.7N 144.3E 960HPA 80KT 0318 18.8N 143.9E 960HPA 80KT
0400 19.9N 144.2E 965HPA 80KT 0406 21.0N 144.9E 970HPA 70KT
0412 21.6N 145.9E 980HPA 65KT 0418 22.7N 147.7E 985HPA 55KT
0500 23.8N 149.9E 990HPA 50KT 0506 25.1N 152.5E 992HPA 45KT
0512 25.9N 155.0E 996HPA 40KT 0518 26.6N 157.5E 998HPA 35KT
0600 27.0N 160.0E 1004HPA //KT 0606 27.2N 162.3E 1008HPA //KT
0612 27.2N 164.3E 1012HPA //KT 0618 27.1N 166.3E 1012HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT MAR3012UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT APR0100UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT APR0118UTC
FROM STS TO TY AT APR0300UTC
FROM TY TO STS AT APR0418UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT APR0506UTC
FROM TS TO L AT APR0600UTC
DISSIPATION AT APR0700UTC=