Invest 90E,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[WmE]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261628
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION...THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[AnnularCane]

What happened?

[wxmann_91]

It got pwned.

The biggest, most powerful systems typically come from small, sheared, disorganized blobs. This large one got too close to the stratocumulus field just to the NW and started to ingest the stable air.

[HurricaneRobert]

It looks really good right now. Was it just consolidating its center?

[Cyclenall]

After the close-call that 90E had this morning, it looks back to health with strong convection in a blob formation.

Check out the latest GFDL model run, it takes it over category 2 strength at least.. This is not unheard of though for the Epac in May. I think if it keeps on a narrow path with little to no wind shear in it's way, it may just be possible. There is moderate to high wind shear beside it on both sides though...could that fan it in a favorable manner?

[Nimbus]

With the cloud tops blown off you could see the well developed low level circulation.

The diurnal max for convection seems to come in the late afternoon.

Whats that old saying about being patient?

Alviin is just running a little late thats all.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like the little fella might be waking up.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262229
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 590 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its not as good looking as Andrea when it was tropical. So it doe's not deserve to be upgrade into it doe's.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL now has it as NONAME.But storm2k policy is to wait for the official word to then make a new thread.

[windstorm99]

We have a TD not officially confirmed by the NHC but NRL has now 01E on there website.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes its a depression no questioning that,,,but it doe's have moderate shear going up from the southwest to northeast.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

looks like a depression to me with convection
reaching -85 C cloud tops

[cycloneye]

Now that it's official the upgrade to TD status,this thread will close and all the analysis and discussions are going to be posted at the new TD 1-E thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 65#1547265