the strong thunderstorm is a part of Barry though, so the NHC might up the windspeeds anyway just to stay on the safe side. I guess we will see what happens.sevenleft wrote:Just keep in mind those winds are very likely associated with a strong thunderstorm and not really with the circulation. There probably won't be a special advisory unless the convection remains consistent near/over the center and the winds persist.
Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
0 likes
Extremeweatherguy wrote:would a stronger storm change the direction, I wonder?
I don't see a stronger storm changing direction with this current set-up. High shear is high shear. Needs to lighten up some to allow for a COD to form over the center. Its trying to now but shear is keeping everything off to the NE. A stronger storm would just be a bigger mess than we currently have.......glad for FL though getting some much needed rain out of it....
0 likes
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
sevenleft wrote:Just keep in mind those winds are very likely associated with a strong thunderstorm and not really with the circulation. There probably won't be a special advisory unless the convection remains consistent near/over the center and the winds persist.
Your right about the convection but it seems to be developing nicely right now. Also 3 reports of 65 knot plus spaced at 10 minutes apart at flight speed, should give the idea that this is wind speed, and not localized.
0 likes
-
Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Wow, Barry is on a roll! I thought this might be its peak intensity (45 mph), but it looks like it's going to strengthen a bit tonight. I will go with 60-65 mph at the strongest for Barry right now. Too early to get any stronger I think, but wow, this is impressive for June 1!
It's going to be a crazy season if this continues.
-Andrew92
It's going to be a crazy season if this continues.
-Andrew92
0 likes
Andrew92 wrote:Wow, Barry is on a roll! I thought this might be its peak intensity (45 mph), but it looks like it's going to strengthen a bit tonight. I will go with 60-65 mph at the strongest for Barry right now. Too early to get any stronger I think, but wow, this is impressive for June 1!
It's going to be a crazy season if this continues.
-Andrew92
I agree with your thoughts. The GOM is quite hostile for any tropial system to stack but shear be dammed Barry is going to make a run at it....
0 likes
Well they are spaced 30-60 seconds apart. But yeah, it is an impressive number. I just tend to err on the conservative side with these "spikes". Look for consistency. It is also interesting the winds were recorded on the western side of the center, which seemed to be the furthest from the deep convection.Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:sevenleft wrote:Just keep in mind those winds are very likely associated with a strong thunderstorm and not really with the circulation. There probably won't be a special advisory unless the convection remains consistent near/over the center and the winds persist.
Your right about the convection but it seems to be developing nicely right now. Also 3 reports of 65 knot plus spaced at 10 minutes apart at flight speed, should give the idea that this is wind speed, and not localized.
Stay tuned folks...I wonder how much more time the plane has left.
0 likes
-
Mike Doran
Very strong lightning event
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp
Presently there are strikes at a 20k/hour rate in the CONUS and this says nothing regarding the rest of the Americas. That's about as good as it gets--these are very high numbers. I have read several comments about 'dry air'. 'Dry air' has a very very low dielectric constant (about one). Water, on the other hand, has a dielectric constant of about 80, and if it gets real cold (the water), then it goes up to 88--like cold cloud tops. So if you are talking about strong static fields created by the displacement current from these high strikes--there is coupling over the 'dry air' but little or no coupling, relatively speaking, due to the dielectric constant, between the upper conductive atmosphere and conductive Gulf of Mexico where the clouds are. And most of the coupling is occurring IMHO right over that 'loop current'. So really it's not dry air but a source of warm and relatively moist air that cannot condense like it does once it is 'protected' from the static fields involved under bands and convection. This then causes relatively explosive convection when it occurs. The same phenomenon in the GOM is feeding warm and moist air to thunderstorms across the CONUS--essentially an effect from Alvin and Barbara that is a bit delayed. This is why the storms Alvin, Barbara and now Barry seem to move from west to east--starting with a tropical storm in the North Indian Ocean . . . Anyway, I realize there are skeptics, but at least observe the high strike totals associated with this development and also note that the distances involved could not bring about teleconnections which are baratropical in nature--the distances are too far and the impacts too immediate. But electrics is a very fast moving way of teleconnecting events.
Presently there are strikes at a 20k/hour rate in the CONUS and this says nothing regarding the rest of the Americas. That's about as good as it gets--these are very high numbers. I have read several comments about 'dry air'. 'Dry air' has a very very low dielectric constant (about one). Water, on the other hand, has a dielectric constant of about 80, and if it gets real cold (the water), then it goes up to 88--like cold cloud tops. So if you are talking about strong static fields created by the displacement current from these high strikes--there is coupling over the 'dry air' but little or no coupling, relatively speaking, due to the dielectric constant, between the upper conductive atmosphere and conductive Gulf of Mexico where the clouds are. And most of the coupling is occurring IMHO right over that 'loop current'. So really it's not dry air but a source of warm and relatively moist air that cannot condense like it does once it is 'protected' from the static fields involved under bands and convection. This then causes relatively explosive convection when it occurs. The same phenomenon in the GOM is feeding warm and moist air to thunderstorms across the CONUS--essentially an effect from Alvin and Barbara that is a bit delayed. This is why the storms Alvin, Barbara and now Barry seem to move from west to east--starting with a tropical storm in the North Indian Ocean . . . Anyway, I realize there are skeptics, but at least observe the high strike totals associated with this development and also note that the distances involved could not bring about teleconnections which are baratropical in nature--the distances are too far and the impacts too immediate. But electrics is a very fast moving way of teleconnecting events.
0 likes
-
johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 2069
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
Just DA**! 
I left the board this morning believing this system would be lucky to become TD and now this! Bad omen for the 2007 season if this becomes the first hurricane
I left the board this morning believing this system would be lucky to become TD and now this! Bad omen for the 2007 season if this becomes the first hurricane
Last edited by canegrl04 on Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34043
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
johngaltfla wrote:Just an FYI, Hurricane Expo 2007 has been canceled in Sarasota due to Tropical Storm Barry.
Unfreaking real.
If you look at where it is now and look at the October-November historical paths it does tend to make some of us Floridians "uncomfortable" here on the West Coast....
They might want to push Hurricane Expo back to April for 2008...
0 likes
-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
-
johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 2069
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
gtalum wrote:johngaltfla wrote:Just an FYI, Hurricane Expo 2007 has been canceled in Sarasota due to Tropical Storm Barry.
That's a stupid move for a glorified rainstorm.
Actually it's to prevent the blue hairs from trying to drive in it. It's a liability issue.
Thankfully, Channel 7 here in Sarasota has common sense.
Of course, I'm doing my Start of the Hurricane Season show tonight and now I'm competing with our boys here. Rats.
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38107
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Downdraft wrote:Sorry to spoil everyone's day but this isn't going to be a hurricane or even close to it. Look at what's waiting for Barry in the GOMEX. This is a typical early June storm nothing more nothing less, a nice diversion for the really big stuff to come but you can't make a Ferrari from a Ford.
Agree completely.
0 likes
#neversummer
-
Opal storm
-
B'hamBlazer
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 60
- Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:57 am
- Location: Birmingham, AL
-
deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricaneman, Pelicane, Stratton23 and 36 guests