Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see that either Berwick. The trough/disturbance coming from the Bahamas will move west into the far eastern GOM and then get blocked by the GOM ridge as it gets squeezed by the longwave trough moving into the NW GOM and eventually move back eastward over Florida or wash out altogether.

[HouTXmetro]

Anxiously awaiting thunderstorm developmet along the Northern Yucatan coast. BB, so far your analysis have been correct except for the moisture being in place and the source of the moisture.

[HouTXmetro]

Don't see that either Berwick. The trough/disturbance coming from the Bahamas will move west into the far eastern GOM and then get blocked by the GOM ridge as it gets squeezed by the longwave trough moving into the NW GOM and eventually move back eastward over Florida or wash out altogether.

Hmmm... After reading BB last post, I don't beleive he ever called for the trough/disturbance to move into the western gulf. He said energy(tropical impulses) from the trough will be the source of thunderstorm activity along the Northern Yucatan Coast.

[Berwick Bay]

Hello Tex, Moisture source could still be a problem. The situation is more complicated than I had originally envisioned it. But thats okay. I thought it would be a simple matter of persistent thunderstorm activity associated with lower pressures and an upper level ridge in the Carribean spreading northward over the Yucutan. My hunch now is that renewed activity in the EPAC might has sapped some of this energy from Central America. But you know everything is interconnected. As activity in EPAC picked up, bringing about more stability in Central America, we suddenly find a well formed upper level low at the bottom of the trough over Fl rushing down toward W Cuba and the Yucutan Channel setting this situation up (left to right)---Active EPAC, Stable Central AM,
Active Yucutan Channel Area-- See what I mean. Read NWS Tampa Office forecasting Upper Level Low (once it gets to the Yucutan Channel) to retrograde somewhat toward the Yucutan itself. Will watch to see if instability and "fault line" or trough develops in West Central Gulf. The details are not exactly what I thought they would be, but I think my overview calling for development in the W Central Gulf is still a distinct possibility.

[jasons2k]

The details are not exactly what I thought they would be, but I think my overview calling for development in the W Central Gulf is still a distinct possibility.

The challenge with forecasting tropical cyclones, or any kind of weather event, is that the devil is in the details.

[Berwick Bay]

Okay, here's the way things look to me on Fri. Afternoon. Feeling much more positive about the forecast I made early Mon. Morning for cyclone formation in the W Central Gulf between June 13th-June 16th. Thursday was pretty bleak for the home team, but conditions in the Gulf are now RADICALLY CHANGING. That surprising ULL which formed at the bottom of the trough and is moving now SSW over Fl and down toward Cuba is preparing the table for my forecast (I think). Many in Fl are seeing this ULL with attendant storms and looking to the east to the Bahamas; I say look to the SW to the Southern and then Western GOM. The ULL and the Strong Upper Level High are interacting powerfully (check a good WV Loop). Its this interaction that will provide a basis for development. You have to have conflict-opposites not just a steady E-W flow or Zonal Flow. No Zonal Flow here! Air will move S and W in the Gulf between the two Upper Level Systems. Thunderstorms will be flung into the Gulf from off Fl (already beginning to happen). They will move S and W. Storms will develop near the W tip of Cuba, they will move W. Near 23 and 1/2 North (Tropic of Cancer) there will be an area where squalls will begin to congregate (to the west near the northern Yucutan Coast). This area will be out of the reach of the ULL circulation, but will instead benefit strongly from the Upper Level High in the Western Gulf. That quiet Upper Level High is powerful indeed. Residual storms will congregate north of the Yucutan as the Upper Level High burgeons north and even reaches north and sort of envelops the ULL. Looking for development at 24 N and 92 W.

[Steve]

Berwick, as I noted over on CHFC, the 12Z CMC and 00Z GFS seem to be hinting at some type of surface reflection in that general area middle of next week. The interruption in the windflow brought on by the ULL does provide the possibility for some rising air and/or convection. Both models keep whatever is down there weak and generally moving west south of the TX/MX border. That's not bad considering they don't have much to work with except an ULL backing SW to interrupt the current pattern. This may also be one of the early hammers on the seasonal glass that allows the weather down in the Caribbean and Gulf to flow in from the east. Could be something to watch.

There is some wave energy stuck near the islands with some of it having broken through (mostly innocuous). Some of the break-through energy could also provide a spark (haven't looked at the Tropical Weather Discussion to see if these are two distinct waves or whatever).

Good topic.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

While no convection yet I definately see things falling into place in the area BB predicted..

[Stratosphere747]

While no convection yet I definately see things falling into place in the area BB predicted..

If you are basing this on his latest "forecast", then something should be developing over the next couple of days, not the 13-16 June period.


While we are talking about this period, I'm going to try and make it up to Texas City on the 16th.

Scott

[SaveNola]

If you are basing this on his latest "forecast", then something should be developing over the next couple of days, not the 13-16 June period.
While we are talking about this period, I'm going to try and make it up to Texas City on the 16th.
Scott

What are you basing the 'next couple of days' off of. I see nothing of that here, but I could have missed it.

[HouTXmetro]

While no convection yet I definately see things falling into place in the area BB predicted..

If you are basing this on his latest "forecast", then something should be developing over the next couple of days, not the 13-16 June period.


While we are talking about this period, I'm going to try and make it up to Texas City on the 16th.

Scott

He doesn't actually predict storms to start firing off until sometime tomorrow in the area that he mentioned. I'd imagine the development of a surface low will take place after the convection gets going for a few days So June 13-16 sounds about right according to his forecast.

[Berwick Bay]

First of all, thank you Houston for your confidence. I hope that my "forecast" is worthy of it. You are right when you say a few days. Check you latest WV Loop and you see the very heavy storms and instability (of which photos were taken in Fl and posted on another thread). The lead line of squalls has just cleared Key West. I would imagine that it was pretty rough down there (would like to hear from a Key West poster on this and on tropical weather in general. Key West is often at the center of the tropical world.) Much instability now in SE Gulf plunging south toward the Yucutan Channel. Here I would expect to low pressure begin to form at the surface, and drift west becoming more pronounced along the N Yucutan Coast. Development will not be overly fast at first. I'm thinking that my June 13th - June 16th time slot is looking pretty good right now. Remember, I don't look for development until after a gradual drift of what will by then be a developing tropical low in a general NW direction taking the low NW of the NW tip of the Yucutan. Tropical Cyclone formation to be acknowledged by the NHC during that June 13-16 time frame about 150 miles or so NW of the NW tip of the Yucutan. Very near the Tropic of Cancer, maybe 24 N and 92 W.

[windstorm99]

I doupt anything will take place anywere in the gulf with the current conditions in place.Right now there's 40k-50kt windshear in the gulf which will inhibit any development atleast in the near term.In any case it should be a quiet few weeks until the MJO returns it should be back around the start of July,as it's been moving across the globe in 20-30 day increments.I think thats when we'll get another chance at another named system.Adrian

[Extremeweatherguy]

In about 5 days it looks like most of the western Gulf will have somewhat favorable conditions for development:



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropmain.html

[Berwick Bay]

Very interesting Weatherguy. That five day forecast for upper level stability in the W Central Gulf is the foundation of my original forecast of last Monday. I also want to thank Steve for his findings showing some model forecasting of surface low pressure near the Yucutan in a few days.

[tailgater]

Very interesting Weatherguy. That five day forecast for upper level stability in the W Central Gulf is the foundation of my original forecast of last Monday. I also want to thank Steve for his findings showing some model forecasting of surface low pressure near the Yucutan in a few days.

here's

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[vaffie]

Impressive forecasts, Berwick. Below is the NWS discussion out of Brownsville, Texas.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 147 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007 .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALBEIT LOW. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DISSECTING CENTRAL TEXAS HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY...JUST NORTH OF KSAT...THIS EVENING AND LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH THE MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS INDICATED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS CENTER OF MID LEVEL 500MB RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ARKLATEX. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE NW GULF AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SEABREEZE TO SET UP. GFS MAINTAINS PWS AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHILE THE NAM SURGES ABOVE 2 INCHES. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH WITH THE SEABREEZE TO BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISUM TO SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOPEFULLY THE SEABREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE MODEST CAP...LOW LEVEL INVERSION...THAT PERSIST OVER THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO INDICATE A WEAKENIN OF THE CAP WHICH ADDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE FORECAST. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IF ONE IS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET ONE OF THESE CELLS TO MOVE OVER THEIR AREA...BUT WILL NOT ADD INTO THE ZONE WORDING WITH NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE. WILL SHOW EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE LOW END CHANCES WHILE COASTAL AND WESTERN AREAS TO SEE THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE. MODELS SUGGEST THE INGREDIENTS ON SATURDAY BEING DEPLETED ON SUNDAY AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS SOUTHWEST THE CAP STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING THEM TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TYPICAL FOR MID JUNE WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING. RAIN CHANCES ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE. THE GFS AND SOMEWHAT THE ECMWF INDICATE A PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN FLORIDA TRYING TO WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WILL NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THIS TRACK THIS FAR OUT AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BEFORE ADDING POPS INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

[Steve]

Based on that NAM 6 hour incremental run, the ULL eventually hooks off and a low at sea level is just off the W coast of the Yucatan. NAM, as of now, still has it pretty far south and likely heading toward the Mexican coast. At least the models are sniffing out something as I noted earlier.

>>I also want to thank Steve for his findings showing some model forecasting of surface low pressure near the Yucutan in a few days.

No problem Berwick Bay. I'm a couple of parishes east of you (Lafourche), and you know I'm always interested in what any Louisiana posters have to say (as I generally am with all the good posters from other states). If I can find something to corroborate what is prognosticated, I'll post it. FWIW, I have no idea whether or not a pattern reversal (apparently taking place) will result in anything tropical. But there is some model support at this time. And you did put this information out there far in advance of anything likely to corroborate your position. So I appreciate the heads-up and look forward to whether or not anything happens down that way.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

Any thoughts on the convection firing off Mexico into the Western Gulf? looks like some potent energy.

[HeeBGBz]