South Caribbean firing

[Vortex]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEREAS THE GFS AND NAM WERE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, THEY HAVE MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TODAY BUT THAT
IS MOSTLY IN THE LONG TERM. IN THE SHORT TERM, LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SPINNING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HAS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS CENT FLA AT THIS TIME. THIS LIKELY TO BE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL
LACKING SO STILL ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MOSTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR ZONES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN FOR MONDAY WITH BOTH
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE COMING UP WITH LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED
WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES SETTING UP ON BOTH COASTS SO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE UP ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES BUT THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITH STEERING FLOW REMAINING
VERY LIGHT. SO HAVE KEPT THE SCT POPS FOR INTERIOR ZONES. NOW IS
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION SHOW THEIR UGLY HEADS. THE GFS IS
CONTINUING ITS TREND OF SHOWING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO
EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST. THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE EVEN INDICATED A
CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIFTING
TO THE GEORGIA COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS OVER S FLA WITH W TO NW FLOW DEVELOPING WITH FORECAST
PWAT`S AT AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH FOR MID JUNE BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE. THIS WILL TEND TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER
THE INTERIOR AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY BUT
STILL REMAINS IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH HEIGHT
RISES DO OCCUR SO NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE. THE NAM NOW PAINTS A
QUITE DIFFERENT PICTURE. IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AND
MOVES IT INTO THE NORTHEAST GOFMEX WITH EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF 50H BUT ALSO DEVELOPS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CENT
CARIBBEAN WHICH WOULD PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD S FLA. THIS
DOES NOT SEEM VERY PLIABLE AND HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THIS SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

[drezee]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

true,but the NAM only goes out 84 hours...that, my friend, is the problem...

your going to have to explain your reasoning on that statement..

Who has to explain what?

sorry im not sure what you mean by that it only goes out 84 hour and that being the problem

For a straight week or so the NAM forecasted Barry to form in the 72-84 hour time frame. The problem is that when it first said that low would form was about a week before it actually did...a forecast of action vs. time...with no time constraints everything can verify in theory.

[boca]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I starting to think that this system in whatever form it is in will move to the SE of Florida and not be a player in our weather because even though the ULL is moving west the high isn't their to change the NNE this system is currently moving.

[KWT]

The whole thing is a mess right now though there is some deep convection strectching south from Jamica, though I'm guessing its a seperate feature from the convection that formed in the far SW yesterday. I belive the convection has been boosted by the tropical wave that was just to the east yesterday and it does look like the main convection is along the wave.

[Aric Dunn]

In the NAM defense it did sniff out Barry a few days before it developed and it was consistant for a week on that senario panning out.

true,but the NAM only goes out 84 hours...that, my friend, is the problem...

your going to have to explain your reasoning on that statement..

Who has to explain what?

sorry im not sure what you mean by that it only goes out 84 hour and that being the problem

For a straight week or so the NAM forecasted Barry to form in the 72-84 hour time frame. The problem is that when it first said that low would form was about a week before it actually did...a forecast of action vs. time...with no time constraints everything can verify in theory.

agreed anything could form.. but it picked up on it as it usually does... problem with it .. it almost never can get a real good handle on it.. so it bounces around pushes it back.. the main point is that it continued to show a area of low pressure which was there that whole time.. but just was not tropical cyclone.. thats what i think you missed.. there was area of low pressure.. but anyway... i still watch the NAM for when it develops areas of low pressure

[Beach0612]

What does all this mean for Key West this week? My mom is coming down to visit - I hope its not a rainy week

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Right now conditions are unfavorable as a ULL is causing major shear...
but once near the bahamas...IF the high sets in then development is
possible.

[windstorm99]

NHC 2:05PM Discussion...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
DEPICT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 76W-78W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA.

[southerngreen]

hope the rain makes it to us!

(oh please, oh please, oh please)

this is running on our local tv: WTSP - St Pete

" "Chantal" in the days to come?

Miami, FL - A large tropical wave . . . located about 475 miles south-southeast of Cape Verde Islands is moving westward at 20 to 25 mph. Some development of this system is possible in the next day or so before the wave encounters unfavorable upper-level winds and cooler water temperatures.

On its current track, this unorganized system of clouds and thunderstorms is at least a week away from the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. Forecasters at The National Hurricane Center are watching the system closely. It is not likely to gain enough strength to overcome the strong sheering environment that it will encounter should it progress beyond a few days.

*In the month of June, tropical systems generally form in Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf of Mexico or the southeast coast of the U.S. Although June marks the beginning of hurricane season, the month typically experiences little activity. The average storm formation within this area is 3 tropical storms per 5 years." "

[flwxwatcher]

Another factor that could help enhance any chances for development is it looks like a upward motion pulse is about to move into the Caribbean..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Please bring florida rain!!!
The next 7 days only have 20% rain chances!!!
We are gonna be dry as a desert unless a heavy
rain event takes place!!!

[Patrick99]

Please bring florida rain!!!
The next 7 days only have 20% rain chances!!!
We are gonna be dry as a desert unless a heavy
rain event takes place!!!

I find it very concerning that these days, we have to wait for "rain events" in order to get any rain. Why don't we have convection forming every day simply because it's hot and humid.

The daily afternoon thunderstorms are just not here. 10 and 20 percent rain chances for days on end in June, that's not at all normal.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What do the promets think of this area? I am not sure
right now.

[Air Force Met]

What do the promets think of this area? I am not sure
right now.

There is a weak wave being enhanced by a lot of divergence aloft because of the upper low. There is nothing at the surface that, if the divergence was absent, would cause the convection to sustain itself and develop.

[ronjon]

18Z NAM continues to rapidly deepen a tropical cyclone in the western caribbean and now moves in more N-NW toward the Yucatan channal in 84 hrs. I alluded to this development in a previous post several days ago. The GFS shows a much weaker disturbance with some vorticity. Looks like some mass of convection will approach S FL this upcoming weekend. The GFS wants to wisk it sharply NE across S FL with not much rain for central or north FL - depends on how strong the eastern trough is by the end of this week as to the steering currents. Too early to tell.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[flwxwatcher]

18Z NAM continues to rapidly deepen a tropical cyclone in the western caribbean and now moves in more N-NW toward the Yucatan channal in 84 hrs. I alluded to this development in a previous post several days ago. The GFS shows a much weaker disturbance with some vorticity. Looks like some mass of convection will approach S FL this upcoming weekend. The GFS wants to wisk it sharply NE across S FL with not much rain for central or north FL - depends on how strong the eastern trough is by the end of this week as to the steering currents. Too early to tell.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looks like the position of the Mid level low that the models show dropping into the SE U.S. will play a big factor in the steering of any system ( if one does form) coming out of the Caribbean.. the NAM brings the Mid level Low further west then the GFS..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What do the promets think of this area? I am not sure
right now.

There is a weak wave being enhanced by a lot of divergence aloft because of the upper low. There is nothing at the surface that, if the divergence was absent, would cause the convection to sustain itself and develop.

Thank you.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

All the rain dissapated inland before it could have a chance of
getting to me...ugghh it is hopeless

florida has a hopeless drought
there is no substantial rains aside from the whimpy
way below normal 20% chances we have...could this
be a summer without a rainy season? So far it is.
UGGGH.

Im just gonna give up hope of any system giving us
rain and deal with a record drought.

The lack of extensive rain this time of year
is utterly ridiculous...

[ronjon]

All the rain dissapated inland before it could have a chance of
getting to me...ugghh it is hopeless

florida has a hopeless drought
there is no substantial rains aside from the whimpy
way below normal 20% chances we have...could this
be a summer without a rainy season? So far it is.
UGGGH.

Im just gonna give up hope of any system giving us
rain and deal with a record drought.

The lack of extensive rain this time of year
is utterly ridiculous...

Don't give up hope TBH! All is not turned to dust and dirt yet. Rainfall chances should increase this week on Tuesday and Wednesday as an ULL retrogrades SW toward north FL. The "rainy season" typically starts in fits and starts due to intrusions of northern latitude systems in June. Long-term GFS has been fairly consistent in developing a large bermuda high with its axis in north FL or Georgia in 7 to 10 days. This will turn our winds toward the SE and bring in deep tropical moisture to the peninsula - a classic rainy season set-up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks ronjon! The ponds were starting to get dry as a bone again
and the grass is orange in good chunks of the yard...
but that prospect for rain is awesome!!!!