Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#81 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:10 pm

A short lived depression or perhaps minimal tropical storm
is possible out of this in the narrow window of time this
system has before encountering heavy shear and colder
ssts.
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#82 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:14 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:A short lived depression or perhaps minimal tropical storm
is possible out of this in the narrow window of time this
system has before encountering heavy shear and colder
ssts.


Just do what your good at....stating the obvious....LOL....just messing with ya...dont take this the wrong way...
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#83 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:17 pm

LOL...I just need something to track LOL....
and a fish storm is the perfect thing :)
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#84 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:18 pm

just remember this criteria... if we at least get this or there is some other definitive data .. we wont see and upgrade unless at a minimum we meet the following

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm
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#85 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:22 pm

If quickscats show a closed LLC with 25-30 knot winds with in the area of the distrabance. Also a Closed wind field=LLC. With convection closer then 2-4 degrees from the LLC. Also with a 1.5-2.0t numbers. If this was mat I would say this had become a depression...
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#86 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:25 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If quickscats show a closed LLC with 25-30 knot winds with in the area of the distrabance. Also a Closed wind field=LLC. With convection closer then 2-4 degrees from the LLC. Also with a 1.5-2.0t numbers. If this was mat I would say this had become a depression...


i took all available data .. and concluded that the number added up 37.. now given this is in general .. and im not exactly sure if they use this to the "T" but a issuance of a TCFA should be possible tomorrow..... if it persists over night....
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#87 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:28 pm

honestly from the loop here . that first burst of convection slightly decreased and has now begun to burst again

NRL LOOP
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#88 Postby Fego » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:38 pm

[web]http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png[/web]
Last edited by Fego on Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#89 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:41 pm

Fego wrote:Image




you left this post blank???????????? :?: :?: :?: :?:
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#90 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:42 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:
Fego wrote:Image




you left this post blank???????????? :?: :?: :?: :?:


oh never mind i see it now!!!!!!opps my bad
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#91 Postby Fego » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:43 pm

Sorry!.. I was having problems posting the image. Well, this is the first models plot I guess..
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#92 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:44 pm

Fego wrote:Sorry!.. I was having problems posting the image. Well, this is the first models plot I guess..


thats ok
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#93 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:46 pm

I bet I'm going to wake up tomorrow, go online and find 20 pgs already on the TS Chantal Thread. This thing looks so good, it beats Barry by miles. It better hurry "Wind Shear and Cool SST's are closer than they appear".
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#94 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:51 pm

that burst is getting bigger and stronger .. NRL SAT LOOP
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#95 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:53 pm

if this keeps up we will have a depression tomorrow... that convection although small .. has been persistent long enough to think that it may last.. normally system at this stage pulse up and down.. this one has been hanging in there

just wish i had a color inhaced IR lmage that is updated every hour or so like the NRL
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#96 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:54 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:that burst is getting bigger and stronger .. NRL SAT LOOP


are there bouys or ships reporting in on this system aric?????????????
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#97 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:54 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If quickscats show a closed LLC with 25-30 knot winds with in the area of the distrabance. Also a Closed wind field=LLC. With convection closer then 2-4 degrees from the LLC. Also with a 1.5-2.0t numbers. If this was mat I would say this had become a depression...


Just another system to waste my time. Only 1 day off the past 2 weeks and it's just June and all we had was Barry last weekend and maybe Chantal tomorrow. NHC won't do anything overnight. They'll wait to make sure convection persists until morning then upgrade it. Should be a short forecast track. Have to get up at 5 and go to work. Night all.....
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#98 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:55 pm

well this is the best i could do....... every half hour.. loop http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
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#99 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If quickscats show a closed LLC with 25-30 knot winds with in the area of the distrabance. Also a Closed wind field=LLC. With convection closer then 2-4 degrees from the LLC. Also with a 1.5-2.0t numbers. If this was mat I would say this had become a depression...


Just another system to waste my time. Only 1 day off the past 2 weeks and it's just June and all we had was Barry last weekend and maybe Chantal tomorrow. NHC won't do anything overnight. They'll wait to make sure convection persists until morning then upgrade it. Should be a short forecast track. Have to get up at 5 and go to work. Night all.....


lol sounds good.. but waste your time ... the tropics are fun.. never a waste of time..
but have fun at work
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#100 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:59 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that burst is getting bigger and stronger .. NRL SAT LOOP


are there bouys or ships reporting in on this system aric?????????????


this is all that is in the area..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/tropical_atlantic.shtml

and then check this site for some ships at some point nothing in the area as of yet for ships anyway http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
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