Still Watching Yucutan

[caneman]

I think it bears watching. Same set up we see in /june and October in this region taking place. With ULL on the back side, if something where to work its way down.... Most likely head toward panhandle, West Florida. Porbably not anything more than storm T.S. though. Have to see if it persist.

[windstorm99]

Here is the cmc 850mb vorticity at 144hrs which spins up something near the yucatan and brings it towards the panhandle.

[Berwick Bay]

Think this weather in NW Carib may have a chance. Its sort of a left-over feature from the ULL which has now moved off past the Yucatan and will into the GOM. The circulation around the ULL is still bringing moisture up from S-N onto the eastern coast of the Yucatan. However, my own bet (if this area persists) would be for a motion NW across the Yucatan and into the Southern GOM.

[BigA]

The GFDL does something similar with the area in the western Caribbean (although it is focused on TD 3E in the Pacific.) It predicts something forming in the Western Caribbean and moving up toward the Florida panhandle. If the model runs consistently show this, it may be something to start looking at closely.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well the Canadian hasn't done too bad this year...

[tailgater]

This is a little interesting, suface obs.
near Houduras/ Nic border wsw winds
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html
Roatan to the west
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
bouy to ENE
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
maybe some weak rotation here, as someone said earlier, bears watching. Cloud tops starting to warm.Quickscat from earlier this morning.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?436,218

['CaneFreak]

This is a little interesting, suface obs.
near Houduras/ Nic border wsw winds
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html
Roatan to the west
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
bouy to ENE
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
maybe some weak rotation here, as someone said earlier, bears watching. Cloud tops starting to warm.Quickscat from earlier this morning.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?436,218

Yeah....its interesting but I dont believe an LLC is trying to form. A difference in wind direction does not always mean that an LLC is trying to form. It could also mean that a thunderstorm is nearby because the outflow boundaries from thunderstorms have a tendency of changing the wind direction around a bit. I just checked the analysis from PSU and it shows a weak circulation but it is close to land and is probably connected to that upper level low that moved west across the GOM just a few days ago. Now there is a trough branching out from that upper low and allowing multiple little vorticies to form along it. This is just one of those vorticies. Theres just too much diffluence aloft across this area at the present time. Lets see if that changes over the coming days.

[tailgater]

This is a little interesting, suface obs.
near Houduras/ Nic border wsw winds
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html
Roatan to the west
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
bouy to ENE
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
maybe some weak rotation here, as someone said earlier, bears watching. Cloud tops starting to warm.Quickscat from earlier this morning.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?436,218

Yeah....its interesting but I dont believe an LLC is trying to form. A difference in wind direction does not always mean that an LLC is trying to form. It could also mean that a thunderstorm is nearby because the outflow boundaries from thunderstorms have a tendency of changing the wind direction around a bit. I just checked the analysis from PSU and it shows a weak circulation but it is close to land and is probably connected to that upper level low that moved west across the GOM just a few days ago. Now there is a trough branching out from that upper low and allowing multiple little vorticies to form along it. This is just one of those vorticies. Theres just too much diffluence aloft across this area at the present time. Lets see if that changes over the coming days.

Please give a link to the site your looking at. I only said a weak rotation and the Visible sat. loop is starting to bear that out in the gulf of Houndras, yes very close to land. Gotta go to work. Later

[Aric Dunn]

Now! there is something to watch in the NW carrib.. i took a couple days and just waited to see what would happen. although not the most healthy looking it does bare watching because there does appear to be some decent curvature starting to show ..maybe a low is trying to form? as stated before there are some slight west winds but we cant take that as a west wind it is more likely from the T'storms in the area . but it does not mean that it could not be the beginnings of something..

the upper environment is marginal and should at least stay that way for the next 24 hrs..this part is a little tricky because there is a very complex system of upper lows over the SE us and the old upper low over the Yucatan that has been weakening. this is all causing some uncertainties in what exactly the shear is going to do. the entire west half of the gulf has light shear but the environment is pretty stable right now that may change as this bit of a trough rotates down off the northern gulf coast causing a little more lift. as for the shear it all depends on the placement and eventual position of the uLL over Georgia this morning, as of right it appears to still be dropping wsw and if it does it may allow for a continuation of a marginal shear environment in the NW carrib come days 2 and 3 maybe!!? if it drops farther south there will likely be and drastic increase in shear and the likely hood of anything forming is smaller( but not completely out ).

the models i have not been paying much attention to they have been for the most part way off with a few exception notably the formation of a low pressure off the Florida coast that has happened and may play apart in the overall shear environment because if that system becomes a strong cold core low it would help enhance the shear over the NW carrib by potentially swinging a trough down there? there is another scenario that is if it some how develops tropically then a things change again.

overall there is great uncertainty in the development of either system and what the upper environment will do, but short term a marginal shear in the NW carrib and possibly a low forming in that area. the motion of anything in the NW carrib would most likely be in the N to NE direction!! a North westward direction is very low. so we will have to wait and see!

['CaneFreak]

This is a little interesting, suface obs.
near Houduras/ Nic border wsw winds
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html
Roatan to the west
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
bouy to ENE
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
maybe some weak rotation here, as someone said earlier, bears watching. Cloud tops starting to warm.Quickscat from earlier this morning.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?436,218

Yeah....its interesting but I dont believe an LLC is trying to form. A difference in wind direction does not always mean that an LLC is trying to form. It could also mean that a thunderstorm is nearby because the outflow boundaries from thunderstorms have a tendency of changing the wind direction around a bit. I just checked the analysis from PSU and it shows a weak circulation but it is close to land and is probably connected to that upper level low that moved west across the GOM just a few days ago. Now there is a trough branching out from that upper low and allowing multiple little vorticies to form along it. This is just one of those vorticies. Theres just too much diffluence aloft across this area at the present time. Lets see if that changes over the coming days.

Please give a link to the site your looking at. I only said a weak rotation and the Visible sat. loop is starting to bear that out in the gulf of Houndras, yes very close to land. Gotta go to work. Later

Here you go http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

[SouthFloridawx]

I have to agree with you 'CaneFreak... There is an upper level disturbance to the Northeast of the convection. Perhaps the convection is due to what you said in part and a tropical wave to it's southeast. As always, if the convection persists, it's possible a low level circulation could spin up. As we know it takes time for those things to happen. Shear is 10-20 kts over the area, also noticed 15kts of mid level shear. We have some convergence to the East and Southeast of this blowup... If this convection were to continue over the next 24-48 hours it definitely bears watching.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...
AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...
ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 15N. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
80W AND 88W.

GFS 12Z Spinning up a weak low in the YC, but I'm not sure if this is due to convective feedback or the presence of the tropical wave interacting with the Upper Low.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[punkyg]

I have to agree with you 'CaneFreak... There is an upper level disturbance to the Northeast of the convection. Perhaps the convection is due to what you said in part and a tropical wave to it's southeast. As always, if the convection persists, it's possible a low level circulation could spin up. As we know it takes time for those things to happen. Shear is 10-20 kts over the area, also noticed 15kts of mid level shear. We have some convergence to the East and Southeast of this blowup... If this convection were to continue over the next 24-48 hours it definitely bears watching.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...
AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...
ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 15N. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
80W AND 88W.

GFS 12Z Spinning up a weak low in the YC, but I'm not sure if this is due to convective feedback or the presence of the tropical wave interacting with the Upper Low.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well what ever it is means more rain for florida!

[windstorm99]

Not really buying into this but the 12z CMC has a TS moving out of the yucatan into sw florida.

[wxman57]

You guys are really grasping at straws if you're using the Canadian model for tropical cyclone forecasts. I see a weak tropical wave along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula interacting with an upper-level low over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The result is spotty thunderstorms east of the Yucatan in the NW Caribbean. But the wave axis continues moving west across the Yucatan and the convection to the east in the NW Caribbean is diminishing. There is fairly high wind shear across the NW Caribbean and GoM. Development is unlikely over the next 3-5 days. Maybe in another week or more the shear might drop off and that'll be an area to just watch, as we'd normally do this time of year. All in all, the tropics are looking similar to 2004 now with all tropical waves south of 10N and very little convection associated. The first named storm didn't form until July 31 that year. Andrea was certainly not tropical and Barry was questionable. So I think there's a good chance that Chantal may hold off until late July. Let's enjoy the quiet early season.

[windstorm99]

Could not agree more...

Here's my post from yesterday from another thread-Overall Status of 2007 Season so far.

It would not surprise me if we see these quite times rule through atleast the begining of july before we get another named storm in the atlantic basin.The pattern out across the atlantic is such that trofs and ull's are creating unfavorable conditions across most of the basin.The wave that moved of africa a few days ago in my opinion really had no chance due to cool sst's and a fast steering flow in the eastern atlantic.Overall there's a small chance for something to develop in the caribbean area as conditions look to become somewhat more favorable in the coming days.Adrian

As others have stated enjoy these quite times cause who knows what august,september,october will bring.

[jasons2k]

I agree, I think it will remain q-u-i-e-t until at least July.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You guys are really grasping at straws if you're using the Canadian model for tropical cyclone forecasts. I see a weak tropical wave along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula interacting with an upper-level low over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The result is spotty thunderstorms east of the Yucatan in the NW Caribbean. But the wave axis continues moving west across the Yucatan and the convection to the east in the NW Caribbean is diminishing. There is fairly high wind shear across the NW Caribbean and GoM. Development is unlikely over the next 3-5 days. Maybe in another week or more the shear might drop off and that'll be an area to just watch, as we'd normally do this time of year. All in all, the tropics are looking similar to 2004 now with all tropical waves south of 10N and very little convection associated. The first named storm didn't form until July 31 that year. Andrea was certainly not tropical and Barry was questionable. So I think there's a good chance that Chantal may hold off until late July. Let's enjoy the quiet early season.

I agree. It does look similar to 2004, and I think not seeing another storm until at least July is probably pretty likely (may be not late July though..I think there is a chance we could see something earlier in the month).

[Weatherfreak000]

You guys are really grasping at straws if you're using the Canadian model for tropical cyclone forecasts. I see a weak tropical wave along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula interacting with an upper-level low over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The result is spotty thunderstorms east of the Yucatan in the NW Caribbean. But the wave axis continues moving west across the Yucatan and the convection to the east in the NW Caribbean is diminishing. There is fairly high wind shear across the NW Caribbean and GoM. Development is unlikely over the next 3-5 days. Maybe in another week or more the shear might drop off and that'll be an area to just watch, as we'd normally do this time of year. All in all, the tropics are looking similar to 2004 now with all tropical waves south of 10N and very little convection associated. The first named storm didn't form until July 31 that year. Andrea was certainly not tropical and Barry was questionable. So I think there's a good chance that Chantal may hold off until late July. Let's enjoy the quiet early season.

As always I never want to refute a Met's opinion, however I highly disagree with this logic.

I have already noted a total of Three Tropical Waves (Including 93L) that have come off the African Coast that had an impressive Wave Axis and in the case of 93L, a Mid Level Circulation and with all three, strong convection.


I just simply can't believe that for the next 35-40 days, we won't see a repeat performance of 93L, and I always note in July when the SST's begin to boil further north we usually have at least one invest pop up around 30 N (usually they die)


So I suppose in closing, not only do I strongly believe we'll see a named storm before the late July, I think we'll probably see multiple systems, and possibly a hurricane. Time will tell.

[southerngreen]

Now! there is something to watch in the NW carrib.. i took a couple days and just waited to see what would happen. although not the most healthy looking it does bare watching because there does appear to be some decent curvature starting to show ..maybe a low is trying to form? as stated before there are some slight west winds but we cant take that as a west wind it is more likely from the T'storms in the area . but it does not mean that it could not be the beginnings of something..

the upper environment is marginal and should at least stay that way for the next 24 hrs..this part is a little tricky because there is a very complex system of upper lows over the SE us and the old upper low over the Yucatan that has been weakening. this is all causing some uncertainties in what exactly the shear is going to do. the entire west half of the gulf has light shear but the environment is pretty stable right now that may change as this bit of a trough rotates down off the northern gulf coast causing a little more lift. as for the shear it all depends on the placement and eventual position of the uLL over Georgia this morning, as of right it appears to still be dropping wsw and if it does it may allow for a continuation of a marginal shear environment in the NW carrib come days 2 and 3 maybe!!? if it drops farther south there will likely be and drastic increase in shear and the likely hood of anything forming is smaller( but not completely out ).
the models i have not been paying much attention to they have been for the most part way off with a few exception notably the formation of a low pressure off the Florida coast that has happened and may play apart in the overall shear environment because if that system becomes a strong cold core low it would help enhance the shear over the NW carrib by potentially swinging a trough down there? there is another scenario that is if it some how develops tropically then a things change again.

overall there is great uncertainty in the development of either system and what the upper environment will do, but short term a marginal shear in the NW carrib and possibly a low forming in that area. the motion of anything in the NW carrib would most likely be in the N to NE direction!! a North westward direction is very low. so we will have to wait and see!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

some nice curves going on in the caribbean and some crazy curves in the jet - it's enough to make people antsy.

[Aric Dunn]

lol