LOW FORMING IN NW Caribbean RECON TOMORROW

[Regit]

Another poster's past prediction is NOT the topic of this thread. Please get back on topic.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Can someplease provide some proof of a forming low please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

What do ya think about my predictions?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95419

I like it...Your detail is always great..and most of the time something of the sort comes to fruition.

[windstorm99]

NHC 2:05PM Discussion...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE DAY IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EXTREME W CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N85W IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS SPREADING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND E-CENTRAL CUBA. A NEAR 60 NM WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO EAST OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH
AND EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC COAST OF NICARAGUA ALL THE WAY N TO
20N83W. A 1009 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE
MAP NEAR 19N86W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A PLUME OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS STREAMING BY
WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE
W ATLC. THE TYPICAL LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EPAC ITCZ. TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALONG 60W AND 70W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

[Cyclone1]

North? That gives a better chance to form if you ask me. Tomorrow, (provided it still exsists in relativley the same spot), sheer is forecast to lighten up greatly for the Gulf and NW caribbean. So maybe we can see some further development tomorrow.

[Weatherfreak000]

A little food for thought:


Possible Invest 94L 2007- June 14-15

Invest 94L (2005)- June 24-25 (Can't remember which)


Pretty impressive but then look at this..

Invest 95L happens only a few days later...


And Invest 96L (Cindy I believe) even so only a week after that.



If 2007 wants to be even close to on par with 2005, we need tropical explosion almost unheard of in the Atlantic within 10 days. And it just seems as if the weather conditions thus far won't allow something like that to happen.

I don't think it's gonna take long for 2005 to leapfrog our current lead, once late July comes around.

[Stormcenter]

A little food for thought:


Possible Invest 94L 2007- June 14-15

Invest 94L (2005)- June 24-25 (Can't remember which)


Pretty impressive but then look at this..

Invest 95L happens only a few days later...


And Invest 96L (Cindy I believe) even so only a week after that.



If 2007 wants to be even close to on par with 2005, we need tropical explosion almost unheard of in the Atlantic within 10 days. And it just seems as if the weather conditions thus far won't allow something like that to happen.

I don't think it's gonna take long for 2005 to leapfrog our current lead, once late July comes around.

I just don't believe we will ever see another 2005 type season.

[HURAKAN]

A little food for thought:


Possible Invest 94L 2007- June 14-15

Invest 94L (2005)- June 24-25 (Can't remember which)


Pretty impressive but then look at this..

Invest 95L happens only a few days later...


And Invest 96L (Cindy I believe) even so only a week after that.



If 2007 wants to be even close to on par with 2005, we need tropical explosion almost unheard of in the Atlantic within 10 days. And it just seems as if the weather conditions thus far won't allow something like that to happen.

I don't think it's gonna take long for 2005 to leapfrog our current lead, once late July comes around.

I just don't believe we will ever see another 2005 type season.

After 2004 I also didn't believe anything worse could happen in decades, and then came 2005. I still don't think I will see another 2005 in decades but I have been very wrong before!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Supposing Chantal somehow occurs from this mess in the NW Caribbean we'd need at least four storms to form between now and...August 3rd I believe to be on par with 2005's storm numbers.

[Aric Dunn]

just a quick note... the low that seemed to be possibly getting going ....does seem to be doing as it has the past few day(dieing). it looked better a few hours ago. it appears to getting less noticeable on satellite.. although the area that seemed to have the most rotation i guess you could call it was far the sw gulf of Honduras. now either its was just as it has been the last couple of days where the inflow for the convection was giving us the appearance that there a LLC trying form or it still is somewhere .. but has obviously become less apparent .. it could be that it is shifting, reforming or something along those lines, to the north and east. now given that it is very early in its development .. (if any) these types of structure/ reforming happens hopefully we will see some more definite sign some something happening before the sun goes down otherwise its going to be hard to track anything over.

i say this because i have seen sea breezes pushing inland on the Belize coast where it should be NW to nnw winds if indeed a low was anywhere that area

[Aric Dunn]

and still no invest .. i would not get your hopes up on this one............................................................................................................

[tailgater]

It's still there in the GOH but the ULL is ripping it apart. Naked swirl watch shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

you know im not sure if anyone caught this or not.. but the recon tomorrow... say gulf of mexico.... at 24n 84w that is way off from where our system is ... unless of course its supposed to transport its self 500 miles norh.. over night !

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 15/1600Z
D. 24.0N 84.0W
E. 15/1530Z TO 15/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.[b]

as of right now its somewhere between 15n and 19 n

[vbhoutex]

you know im not sure if anyone caught this or not.. but the recon tomorrow... say gulf of mexico.... at 24n 84w that is way off from where our system is ... unless of course its supposed to transport its self 500 miles norh.. over night !

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 15/1600Z
D. 24.0N 84.0W
E. 15/1530Z TO 15/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.[b]

I saw that. I imagine they expect it or a portion of the elongated low to be in that vicinity and that is basically their start point. Also unless things change drastically, this system, whatever it becomes should be moving N to NE which would be towards that area.

[DanKellFla]

Boy, we are desparate for something. We are getting excited over a possibly sever thunderstorm.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't get TOO excited. The recon folks will just be ready IN CASE anything were to develop. Just a bunch of disorganized thunderstorms in a relatively high shear environment now. I can see a trace of mid-level spin near 17.5N/86.2W that's moving off to the northeast at a good clip. Doesn't qualify for an invest, though. And unless thunderstorms increase dramatically overnight, there will be no recon tomorrow. Probably just some rain coming for Cuba and extreme south Florida the next few days.

I would add, surface obs across the NW Caribbean indicate straight SE flow. No evidence of anything at the surface. Just a little spin aloft. It's behaving just like the GFS had predicted on May 31st, in fact. Very weak area of low pressure and increasing thunderstorms by June 14th across the NW Caribbean. Should track across Cuba in the next 24 hours then across the Bahamas over the weekend. As the thunderstorms move NE up the cold front, shear will be increasing. Tropical storm development is unlikely.

Oh, and I see that the upper low which was on the western side of the Yucatan at 0645Z has moved 160nm in 13 hours to just west of Cozumel/Cancun - almost all the way across the Yucatan since early this morning. It's moving to the NE-ENE at about 12 kts and accelerating. Thus the NE movement of the convection ahead of it.

[vbhoutex]

[marq=down]EXCITED?!?!?!EXCITED!!!????[/marq] WHO'S EXCITED??????

[Nimbus]

Tailgater wrote:

It's still there in the GOH but the ULL is ripping it apart. Naked swirl watch shortly.

I have been watching that ULL on the water vapor loop as it rolled southeast over the Yucatan. The ULL has been the major inhibiting factor that Barry did not have to deal with.

The only way the surface low has a chance is if the ULL fills and gets replaced by high pressure. That would take some time.

[ronjon]

It looks like the low center at the surface is near 19N-87W, just south of Cozumel - this isn't too far from the TPCs location at 19N-86W this morning.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[Aric Dunn]

It's still there in the GOH but the ULL is ripping it apart. Naked swirl watch shortly.

dont even think there is that much there to even have a naked swirl