Low press. off/on FL coast

[NcentralFlaguy]

hmmm not an invest yet? the next two should have something to say.

[jrod]

hmmm not an invest yet? the next two should have something to say.

It is one this forum.

[NcentralFlaguy]

you know i am looking at the radar, and i think the center is a little larger than i thought.

[ronjon]

The center of circulation is clearly visible on JAX radar - just offshore the Ga-FL state line. It is stationary. The convection is increasing over the Atlantic and the center is tightening up. If it can stay over water another 12 hrs I'd say we'd have a depression.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes" target="_blank

[windstorm99]

You can clearly make out some banding on radar....

[NcentralFlaguy]

the radar signature is improving quickly, i still feel it needs to find its way to the east about 50 miles or so at the very least.

[jrod]

I was just looking at the radar and was about to comment on the banding features until windstorm beat me to it. I cant wait to see what this looks like tommorow morning.

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
935 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AT CLOUD-LEVEL EVIDENT ON RADAR JUST OFF
THE COAST E OF SAINT MARYS. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NE FL. 1ST PERIOD ZFP POPS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. 18Z MODELS
STILL SHOW LINGERING TROF OVER N FL WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE THRU THU. NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT TWEAKING POPS UP 10% FOR
TOMORROW.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94f.gif" target="_blank
Shows a 1013 low sliding SW across the state

Shows it hanging out just north of Tampa.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif" target="_blank


I give this a 20% shot at becoming a TD. The setup is good, the conditions are good. Who knows.

[boca]

I wonder if this system will actually move SW towards west central Florida.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

what is the anti cyclonic turning feature over georgia sliding ESE ward?

it appears to me the system will push Se a bit then down to the S or sse and maybe even a drift to the SSW my guess is just off or over daytona tomorrow

but given the relative organization of this low i don't see it being steered all the way across in the gulf but i have been wrong before

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html" target="_blank

what is the anti cyclonic turning feature over georgia sliding ESE ward?

it appears to me the system will push Se a bit then down to the S or sse and maybe even a drift to the SSW my guess is just off or over daytona tomorrow

but given the relative organization of this low i don't see it being steered all the way across in the gulf but i have been wrong before

i was just about to mention that..... that is a upper high,,, which is good since its heading right over the low.. but there is some dry air at the low and mid levels right now that may be the biggest short term inhibitor. tommorow maybe a differnt story.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[NcentralFlaguy]

I havn't been able to get a current satellite image in hours!

[Aric Dunn]

i think the most important thing at the moment is to get it just a little further over water to allow the inflow on the nw and sw sides to have some more water underneath..

[NcentralFlaguy]

agreed, but do you feel that will happen? I cant get a water vapor loop so I have no idea what the synoptics are right now, last i saw the was an anti-cyclone just west of the low pushing it to the ese.

[Aric Dunn]

if you notice in this image that the ealier ene motion was do to that passing trough .. and the present stationary is do to a weak steering flow.. but from the looks of it.. a sse to s motion then ssw like someone posted a minute ago should start tomorrow. but with lots of uncertainty.. with slow moving system. it could parallel the coast before heading back over florida towards the gulf .. and if the circulation can hang on that may be a bigger player... in a few days.

[Aric Dunn]

well right now there minimal convection just a few stronger bands on radar.. otherwise its void of anything that would suggest any rapid organization.. but that can change since it just moved over water a couple of hours ago we cant expect it to just all of sudden become a tropical system a little time is needed.. over night will be the big thing to watch .. becasue if it can at least survive the night and move just a little further away from the coast than yeah i think something could happen later tomorrow.. maybe!

[windstorm99]

Overall as high pressure builds over south florida it will eventually push what ever is out there in sw motion.Adrian

[Aric Dunn]

Overall as high pressure builds over south florida it will eventually push what ever is out there in sw motion.

eventually ... sometime tomorrow we should see some southerly motion then yeah some sw .. and moving back over florida in tot he gulf .. then if it survives that we may have to watch the gulf .

[Aric Dunn]

winds are very light around this thing. but there is definately a surface circ.. i can find consistant west ,, north .. sw . nw se .. every wind direction . and its been consistant so not just some t'storms in the area.. strongest wind i found was a ship just off shore and was 20 kts ..

[NcentralFlaguy]

Thanks for the graphic Aric, I guess now its just a matter of what direction drifts around, if any. nevertheless it gives us something to discuss, even though my better half just came in the room wondering out loud how this can interest me.(she is not a big weather fan..oh well)