will we have an invest 96L soon?

[Frank2]

Per the TCD, with the low behind the wave, it's unlikely to do much...

[curtadams]

Looks like "thar she blows" on RGB (warning; hotlink, will change with time). Popcorn thunderstorms going up over a tight pre-existing mid or low-level circulation. Certainly invest-worthy at the very least.

[hawkeh]

So what do the pro mets think about this little wave? It seems to be holding up fairly well but is it just too far south at this point for development?

[cheezyWXguy]

So what do the pro mets think about this little wave? It seems to be holding up fairly well but is it just too far south at this point for development?

Im not a pro met, but from looking at the satelite loop a couple posts above, the possible center, if im correct, just started taking a jog to the north...Id say this thing at least has the ptential to be an invest or depression

[alan1961]

was just thinking about that jog north myself cheesy, the northerly part of it looks like it wants to drag up

[GeneratorPower]

It looks a little thin on the convection side of things, unfortunately.

[alan1961]

it seems to be making a few ripples in that big high to the north of it though..thats got to be rotation in there.

[ronjon]

The wave is starting to fire some convection to the NW and SE of the center of low pressure which looks to be around 9N-36.5W. We may have a tropical depression in a day or two if this organization continues. The global models don't develop it much more so it may stay a weak feature or dissipate into an open wave with time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[MGC]

Nice spin but convection starved. It is surrounded by a good bit of dry air. I'm thinking the dry air is limiting the convection. SST are marginal. Should hit some shear in a couple of days. I currently don't think it will get upgraded to TD status.....MGC

[Berwick Bay]

Some of you guys are mentioning the fact that some of the storms in this broad circulation area are now pulling off ahead and to the north. From my experience, this is usually not good for development. However, at this point you can still see what appears to be the "lower level" center spinning back to the south and east. Lets see if that smaller area back south can hold together, while storms rotating around what was probably a mid-level circulation have been pulled ahead and to the north.

Latest Visible Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Despite the fact that this thing has a lack of deep convection, it now has convection, although little, directly over the center of the storm. Also, the outflow seems to be improving as well, as fanning is showing up on the far southwest side, as shown on satelite...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

And shear is still moderate over the system, about 20kts, but it looks to lessen over the next day or so, to 5-10kts
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

[Ivanhater]

Actually this looks pretty good

[Berwick Bay]

This system is really battling the odds, climatological that is. Upgrade to Depression this far east of the islands is extremely rare at this point in the season. Last I remember was Bertha (96??) which was upgraded to depression out in the far Atlantic somewhere around the 4th of July timeframe. Of course if the tropical impulse remains vital, then its chances of upgrade in the Carribean would be more likely. Lets see if this little train can.

[TheRingo]

mjo pulse is not far from this wave.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 022114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

WWWW

[ftolmsteen]

The last couple of frames this morning it looks like it's really making a good spin now. If this thing really does get going I'm thinking this will be effecting the U.S. in the near future with that Bermuda high placed like it is now. It's shifted a bit further east but I'm thinking it'll build back west again.

I don't care what these "experts" say, it's going to be a busy year. Here we are already looking at potential for development east of the windward islands and it's only July 2, with two names scratched off the list.

The "experts" are saying it's going to be a busy year. This disturbance near 8N/35W does look more impressive today. It's the system the GFS has been developing for the past week. However, wind shear does appear to increase in the path of this disturbance beyond 2-3 days, so chances of development are only slight.

I'm talking about the UK predictions which were mild compared to the others.

[TheRingo]

the pulse seems to be having a bigger affect to this other system off africa.

[alan1961]

The SAL looks like it is in strong evidence in front and too the north.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

any who!! the biggest issue is still the fact that its embedded within the ITCZ and until it breaks off chances are it wont ... but if the northerly moting the "low" that seem to happening continues and it holds together then maybe.. the dry air is only small factor water vapor show a moist envelop surrounding it .. the little sal that is to its north is doing little to it overall .. compared to the ITCZ..

[jaxfladude]

One thing is known for sure the good old USA turns 231 years old on the 4th of July.....