Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

yeah ,, its going to happen today i imagine..

watch closer to DR (Hispaniola) for the Low to really begin to take shape.

Surface pressure just north of the DR is up to 1018mb and rising. No development there. Look north, young man! The upper low and its interaction with the approaching trof will be the place to watch for a potential surface low. Note the possible invest way up at 32N - that's the upper low 600 miles north of the storms near the DR.

Time to head out and get some chores done then a 4 hour bike ride before the rain starts.

its going to start farther south... and move north....

and pressure are even higher up north.. 1018 1020..

[windstorm99]

This area will likely get tagged later this afternoon but as i stated earlier in my opinion a track out to sea looks like a good bet with the approaching cold front.

[Aric Dunn]

This area will likely get tagged later this afternoon but as i stated earlier in my opinion a track out to sea looks like a good bet with the approaching cold front.

yep.. out to see.. or merge with the other low off the mid atlantic..

[cycloneye]

Aric,I edited the title to reflect the real area of interest.

[Aric Dunn]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

medium zoom 12 images.. clearly see it starting father south. and already beginning to move north.. at a pretty good clip.. it will be approaching that area tomorrow sometime..

the low is forming farther south and will move north as the upper low lifts out..


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

here medium zoom.. 15 images.. down by the SE bahamas thats where its starting..it will move north .. and be in that area tomorrow..

[Aric Dunn]

figures ... that will be the area.. tomorrow..

[wxman57]

notice where the gfs .. starts to show something .. near DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

That's the moisture from the wave that passed to the south yesterday the GFS is seeing. But it develops the low near 35N near the frontal boundary. Note that the GFS valid 12Z tomorrow still shows some moisture north of the DR but a low center forming farther north, more with the frontal boundary rather than the upper low. Just not enough convection associated with the upper low for it to build to the surface, and wind shear is too strong farther south for development there. What we'll be looking at is some type of hybrid frontal low east of Hatteras tomorrow, most likely.

[Aric Dunn]

notice where the gfs .. starts to show something .. near DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

That's the moisture from the wave that passed to the south yesterday the GFS is seeing. But it develops the low near 35N near the frontal boundary. Note that the GFS valid 12Z tomorrow still shows some moisture north of the DR but a low center forming farther north, more with the frontal boundary rather than the upper low. Just not enough convection associated with the upper low for it to build to the surface, and wind shear is too strong farther south for development there. What we'll be looking at is some type of hybrid frontal low east of Hatteras tomorrow, most likely.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

lol

[Aric Dunn]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

medium zoom 12 images.. clearly see it starting father south. and already beginning to move north.. at a pretty good clip.. it will be approaching that area tomorrow sometime..

the low is forming farther south and will move north as the upper low lifts out..


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

here medium zoom.. 15 images.. down by the SE bahamas thats where its starting..it will move north .. and be in that area tomorrow..

surface low forming south and moving north.. tomorrow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

[wxman57]

its going to start farther south... and move north....

and pressure are even higher up north.. 1018 1020..

You might look at the 15Z surface plot of pressures 200 miles east of Hatteras. Though one of those ships looks suspect, there are a few 1012-1013mb pressures at a few ships, which is supported by low pressures at buoys to the west. If by starting farther south you mean that the moisture will be entrained by the developing low to the north, then that would be correct. But the low center will develop up north.



Ok, now i'm REALLY leaving.

[storms in NC]

They are board LOL

[Aric Dunn]

its going to start farther south... and move north....

and pressure are even higher up north.. 1018 1020..

You might look at the 15Z surface plot of pressures 200 miles east of Hatteras. Though one of those ships looks suspect, there are a few 1012-1013mb pressures at a few ships, which is supported by low pressures at buoys to the west. If by starting farther south you mean that the moisture will be entrained by the developing low to the north, then that would be correct. But the low center will develop up north.



Ok, now i'm REALLY leaving.

.

that is different then what im talking about..

so wait.. the NHC ( from what your saying) is watching the frontal system and not


the area that have here. from where DR (which is where its starting to develop) extending further north..

the area are different.,... the front system is going to develop a separate low .. ( which is in progress of the mid atlantic)
tomorrow will be a combination of the developing surface low farther south that will move north .. where the upper low is..

[Aric Dunn]

i guess we agree . .that the ultimate possible development will be farther north.. .. so we will have to wait and see.

have fun

[NcentralFlaguy]

Hey Aric , on the gfs loop you posted , is it possible that the energy that is just north of the DR right now is the part that seems to break away and get pushed back to the sw at the end of that loop? by the way , I have to agree that attm that area appears to be a little more organized than the area to the north jmo, although I havnt been right one single solitary time.

[storms in NC]

[Aric Dunn]

mid level.... nothing at the surface.. there... pressures 1018 to 1020

[Aric Dunn]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

medium zoom 12 images.. clearly see it starting father south. and already beginning to move north.. at a pretty good clip.. it will be approaching that area tomorrow sometime..

the low is forming farther south and will move north as the upper low lifts out..


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

here medium zoom.. 15 images.. down by the SE bahamas thats where its starting..it will move north .. and be in that area tomorrow..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

do anyone of this loops.. and look near the SE bahamas..

surface low forming south and moving north.. tomorrow

['CaneFreak]

and heading offshore...(*yawns*).....

[Aric Dunn]

and heading offshore...(*yawns*).....

yeah ... but we are all looking for chantal. it will probably .. be this.. and maybe out to sea.. maybe a loop like the gfs.. maybe no chantal.. maybe the seasn is done.. and we have only two storms... maybe 27 again.. its all maybe

[Recurve]

Sure I've missed something. The TWO mentions the ULL/wave interaction near the Bahamas and says "some development" is possible in a day or two.
The thread about Caribbean wave is not exactly this either, is it? Sorry for confusion but is it time for a title change or separate thread?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME