Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[x-y-no]

A TROUGH might make it turn but no one is showing that. This is not recurving east of the U.S.

um yeah...certainly 10+ day model guidance makes it a guarantee US hit.

OK, let's not get out of hand. Nobody said guaranteed US hit that I can see.

[southerngale]

The smiley means you're kidding, right?

Not at all dude, just check out the 12Z Euro.

I've seen a lot of model runs that put it in various areas, but to call a specific city this far out just seems a little crazy to me... plus the laughing smiley, so I thought you might be kidding.

Btw, I'm a dudette.

[MiamiensisWx]

I love it how people are more concerned on WHERE this is going than the stength...or even it developing AT ALL! The long term track from GFS is a joke, that's like judging how a NFL team is going to do based on their preseason performance. I'm just saying you guys are getting way too hung up on the track of this thing, right now we just need to watch and see if this storm even verifies...THEN we can talk about what (IF any) threat this is going to be to land.

I strongly agree - it is frivolous to discern a possible path and landfall(s). I think we should monitor the prospects of development. Personally, I believe the upper-air regime will be affected by the Caribbean disturbance, especially if it weakens the mid-level ridge. Let's look at 90L. Currently, convection has been increasing - note the well-defined spin near the main convective mass (slightly SSE of the activity). I would not be surprised if we observe further organization closer to the sfc low. I think the rate of development will be the ticket: will we see slow development or more substantial organization east of 40W? Time will tell the tale.

[storms in NC]

I don't see one bit of evidence of that....are you just guessing...or do you know something we don't?[/quote]

The ridge over the east coast will force it to make an early turn...[/quote]

I don't see it ... particularly if it remains relatively weak for a while, it's going to be steered just barely north of west by the strong lower level ridge over it. There will be some mid and maybe upper level weakness around 55w - 60w, but it'll have to be a lot more than the models are depicting for any recurvature (and remember, in the past at least the GFS has tended to be too weak with mid-level ridging in the medium timeframe.)[/quote]

With it being 2 weeks out I wouldn't bet any thing right now unless you gamble the long shots. But you may lose you pants and I wouldn't want to see that

[Brent]

I love it how people are more concerned on WHERE this is going than the stength...or even it developing AT ALL! The long term track from GFS is a joke, that's like judging how a NFL team is going to do based on their preseason performance. I'm just saying you guys are getting way too hung up on the track of this thing, right now we just need to watch and see if this storm even verifies...THEN we can talk about what (IF any) threat this is going to be to land.

I strongly agree - it is frivolous to discern a possible path and landfall(s). I think we should monitor the prospects of development. Personally, I believe the upper-air regime will be affected by the Caribbean disturbance, especially if it weakens the mid-level ridge. Let's look at 90L. Currently, convection has been increasing - note the well-defined spin near the main convective mass (slightly SSE of the activity). I would not be surprised if we observe further organization closer to the sfc low. I think the rate of development will be the ticket: will we see slow development or more substantial organization east of 40W? Time will tell the tale.

That's true, but this is a weather board, what are we supposed to talk about from a potential developing system? I think people understand it can and will change.

[x-y-no]

With it being 2 weeks out I wouldn't bet any thing right now unless you gamble the long shots. But you may lose you pants and I wouldn't want to see that

Well, right now I'd put higher odds on no development than on a recurvature at 60W.

Recurvature fairly close off the coast, maybe. Or plowing straight into the Caribbean. I can easily see either one of those (or something inbetween.)

[storms in NC]

With it being 2 weeks out I wouldn't bet any thing right now unless you gamble the long shots. But you may lose you pants and I wouldn't want to see that

Well, right now I'd put higher odds on no development than on a recurvature at 60W.

Recurvature fairly close off the coast, maybe. Or plowing straight into the Caribbean. I can easily see either one of those (or something inbetween.)

I see what you are saying.Think you are right. But there is No guarantee that the ridge will be where they say it will be. It could be farther south or north or more east or west. We do have to wait and see.

[canegrl04]

The GFS and CMC predicted a Florida hit several days ago when the sstem forming in the first plce was in doubt.Scary indeed if it comes to pass,but also give some of these models the credit they're due

[wxman57]

I made a plot of the 12Z ECMWF valid 12Z (7am cdt) next Saturday. On the plot are purple isobars (plotted for every 1 mb) and 500mb heights in yellow (plotted every 100 meters). What you can see is a tropical cyclone in the eastern Caribbean near 15N/62W. This track is about a day slower than the BAMM/BAMS are indicating.

Before making a long-range projection of potential impact here or there, you need to know that we're not 100% sure of the upper air data across the Atlantic. Models could be initialized with sections missing or with bad assumptions. That's why it's just about impossible to be certain where this potential (ok, maybe likely) storm may track once it reaches about 50-60W. Sure, models may show a ridge north of it or a trof dipping down, but the models may be clueless as to the upper air pattern that far out, so keep that in mind when you think you're feeling confident about the long-range track.

That said, I do think that if it develops quickly that there is a fair chance it could pass a bit north of the Caribbean and perhaps even curve out to sea. Remember when Isabel developed out there in 2003? We thought the same thing. That just goes to show you how wrong the models can be this far out. But, generally, the faster it develops the more northerly the track. The reverse of that is also true, the weaker, the more westerly it'll track. I do think that this system could well become a hurricane before it reaches 60W, so you folks in the eastern Caribbean should check your supplies now and make sure you're ready. Potential impact there Friday or Saturday. Farther west, it could reach the SE U.S. around the 20th-21st (9-10 days from now) if it doesn't recurve. Certainly no time to panic, but time to make sure you have everything you need, too.

As I've said since the spring, the type of pattern we're in is very similar to the 1940s-1960s. During that period, the Florida Peninsula was hit by MANY major hurricanes (12 in one 25 year period). I think Florida north through the Carolinas will be under-the-gun this season, and this could well be a threat for you folks there.

One other thing, I posted a link to a really neat product in the preparations forum after I met a sales rep at the National Hurricane Conference. It's a 65-gallon plastic container that you can fill up in your bathtub as a hurricane approaches. It even has a pump to pump out fresh, clean water. You wouldn't drink out of your bathtub, would you? The cost is about $30 and it's a one-time use product, but it beats buying 65 1-gallon containers of water at the grocery store 5 days before a potential impact and most likely not needing them. You only fill this up if you're 100% going to get clobbered.

Here's the link to the water container:
http://www.mywatersafe.com/

And here's the 12Z European valid next Saturday:

[Extremeweatherguy]

With it being 2 weeks out I wouldn't bet any thing right now unless you gamble the long shots. But you may lose you pants and I wouldn't want to see that

Well, right now I'd put higher odds on no development than on a recurvature at 60W.

Recurvature fairly close off the coast, maybe. Or plowing straight into the Caribbean. I can easily see either one of those (or something inbetween.)

This isn't 2 weeks out. It will likely be near the 60W mark in just 6 or so days. The chance of a recurve looks to be slim to none at that point.

Where it goes after that though is unknown, but I agree with x-y-no that a recurve would either take place closer to the coast or not at all.

[jaxfladude]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al902007.invest

You can continue the discussion.

This invest will not become anything of note...

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

[weatherwindow]

SHIPS is showing only very conservative strengthening...any ideas why?

I don't think that's conservative for where it's at. This is almost mid-August, and 90L is in the eastern Atlantic. I don't think we will get RI over there.

IMHO...most probably a function of continuing marginal sal intrusion, lower dewpoints and marginal ssts...the environment will improve as ssts rise further west and the dewpoint rise with the effects of the subsequent wave inhibiting the sal intrusion to the west......rich

[Cyclone1]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

They're getting more confident in the formation of this. Usually when they say the world "depression," it means formation. Uh.. except for 99L. And 96L.

[jaxfladude]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

Now that the TWO has mentioned it it will fade away.....the DULL Season Continues...

[vacanechaser]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al902007.invest

You can continue the discussion.

This invest will not become anything of note...

rather bold... do i see worms here???



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jaxfladude]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al902007.invest

You can continue the discussion.

This invest will not become anything of note...

rather bold... do i see worms here???



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Well the last few "invests" have faded away.....the one that became TS Chantal being the exception....

[Wx_Warrior]

It would be the best news ive heard all day!

[RL3AO]

We are now level orange on my scale.

[wx247]

Excellent analysis wxman57. Thank you!

I think the posts declaring a fading away without any explanation set a dangerous precedent on here, much like posts that declare a major storm without some reasoning why. I am not suggesting that we have to have professional experience, but a lot of these posts are hard to wade through.