HURAKAN wrote:At least worth dicussing it!!!
805 EDT TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 30N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS SHOWED UP WELL IN RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG
THE WAVE JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AM NOT SURE
THERE IS A CLOSED SFC LOW WITH THIS SPINNING...WITH BAHAMAS
METAR DATA TO THE S OF THE CIRCULATION REPORTING LIGHT NE WINDS.
WILL DIAGNOSE THIS AGAIN FOR THE 22/1200 UTC MAP AS MORE VISIBLE
IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-29N
BETWEEN 72W-78W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW JUST S OF
CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FURTHER S WITH THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-80W.
The wording is very important. They don't say it's completely unfavorable, just that for significant development, I guess, meaning a hurricane, winds are not favorable. Nonetheless, you can't rule out a Barry-like or Erin-like system. If the system slows down a little bit, then maybe a LLC can develop.
But Dean may be giving us a sign here. Dean is far into the southern GOM, but it's still moving at 20 mph. So, if this system is closer to the influences of the high pressure, how will it slow down? Could we have a Erika-like system, that was moving extremely fast but was able to develop? A lot of questions and very few answers.
