Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[skysummit]

Is there any way that you can repost that image? or show a different link to it...I can not see Imageshack or photobucket here....

It's nothing serious...just an image with the entire Atlantic Basin in the cone.

[gatorcane]

if you look at some of the global models, they are showing some good ridging across the subtropical atlantic. For example, the GFS is showing ridging all the way out to 144 hours. But the ridging is not as strong across the Southern CONUS which would possibly allow a track into the GOM or SE US -- that would also be consistent with climatology (unlike Dean which stayed at a low lattitude).

It's early to say for sure but just some food for thought at this point.

Note the GFS has not even picked up on this wave developing yet (so it may not develop)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[kurtpage]

Is there any way that you can repost that image? or show a different link to it...I can not see Imageshack or photobucket here....

It's nothing serious...just an image with the entire Atlantic Basin in the cone.

Thanks.....!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

LOL too funny RL3AO. I thought you were actually serious regarding that track until I looked at it closer ....looks to be a west to possibly west north west track for quite a few days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No particularly dry air chasing this wave in the Cape Verde soundings:

Holy Hovmullers, Batman!



/always wanted to say that...

[BensonTCwatcher]

I love the humor on here when things are quiet. Tensions are likley to increase across the basin before November. There, I made my seasonal forecast

[Brent]

Heres the 14-day track

Anyway... this wave looks interesting. Just last night in chat I was wondering if we'd ever get busy. Same thing happened a few days before Dean also.

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

Heres the 14-day track

Anyway... this wave looks interesting. Just last night in chat I was wondering if we'd ever get busy. Same thing happened a few days before Dean also.

I don't like it without the line in the center. I think it's headed for Florida. Downtown Miami to be exact!!!

[hial2]

Heres the 14-day track

Anyway... this wave looks interesting. Just last night in chat I was wondering if we'd ever get busy. Same thing happened a few days before Dean also.

I don't like it without the line in the center. I think it's headed for Florida. Downtown Miami to be exact!!!

I'll remember and bump this if you turn out to be another Nostradamus...

[HURAKAN]

I'll remember and bump this if you turn out to be another Nostradamus...

Hopefully not. We're just trying to keep the forum alive after a world-wide quietness.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST MON AUG 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z SOUNDING REVEALED A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXISTED...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE FOR
DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION HELPED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY...AND THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DID DEVELOP SHOULD
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

A TUTT LOW...PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N AND 61W...AND A
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS TUTT APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS
CURRENTLY ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 60 AND 62W. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WELL...AND THIS
GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE VI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...AND
ACROSS PR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...IN TANDEM
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. IF THE
TIMING OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...WILL LIKELY SEE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VI AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TOMORROW...AND
INCLUDED TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
35W. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AS AN OPEN
WAVE. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST WERE NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON.



It seems like the NWS San Juan office is not concerned about this being stronger than an open wave.

[bvigal]

Ahh, downtown Miami? No, that would not be at all desirable! Let's have a fish, instead, if we must have something!!
Canadian model seems the only one showing development of this low, no?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

The 18Z surface analysis now has a 1011mb surface low

[brunota2003]

Heres the 14-day track
image

You could of just bumped this thread up from the depths of Page 3...
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96420

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, looking at vis satellite and speeding it up a lot (boy, has it come to that?) I can see what looks like a nice, tight little spin with that wave.

However, there is also a lot of dry air to the north and west of this system. Perhaps that is why the GFS "dries" it out as it moves WNW.

Slow development? Sounds reasonable to me....there certainly isn't anything out there that will develop quickly.

[Cyclenall]

Gatorcane, yes it was a rare situation. Mike Watkins explained that a west running track had happened only one time previously in over 100 years. That was in 1912, I believe. Dean took an absolutely incredible, oddball track climatologically speaking.

Just look at the CLIPPER (climo-only) model projections for Dean. (Sorry, don't have link.)

I couldn't find anything that looked like a Dean track in 1912 in the Atlantic basin.

[GeneratorPower]

Gatorcane, yes it was a rare situation. Mike Watkins explained that a west running track had happened only one time previously in over 100 years. That was in 1912, I believe. Dean took an absolutely incredible, oddball track climatologically speaking.

Just look at the CLIPPER (climo-only) model projections for Dean. (Sorry, don't have link.)

I couldn't find anything that looked like a Dean track in 1912 in the Atlantic basin.

Must have been the wrong year. Need to ask Mike Watkins which one it was. Sorry.

[Sanibel]

Needs to refire convection near the center.