Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[Emmett_Brown]

Conditions in the upper levels look very favorable in 48 hours. Nice round ridge right over the Bahamas at 300mb per GFS:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

[Blown Away]

I know it's nothing more than a cluster of convection, but it looks better on the IR than some of the tropical storms we have had this year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Edit: SSW movement is possible given that bahama ridge picture

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is a nice loop of the area:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&chnl=ui4&domain=bah&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[Blown Away]

I always like to pull climatology into play, one would be hard pressed to find more than a couple of tropical systems that have hit FL from the east during October.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here are some notable storms that hit SE FL from the E during late September, October, and November.

1) Storm 7 (1859) - TS (60 kts) on SE mainland FL
2) Storm 2 (1929) - Category 3 in the FL Keys (~948 mb)
3) Storm 6 (1935) - Category 2 near Miami, FL (~973 mb)*
4) Storm 5 (1941) - Category 2 in southern Dade County, FL (pressure unknown)

*This storm originated near Bermuda and hit SE FL on November 4.

Sources:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1859/7/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1929/2/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/6/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1941/5/track.gif

Additionally, I think this area will be mentioned tonight/5:30 a.m. EDT.

[cycloneye]

This will be the thread for the peeps to post in the comming days until invest 91L is tagged.

Luis we should merge this one and the "after 90L thread"..

No,they are very separated systems.

[Blown Away]

Good find MiamiensisWx!
Forgot about 1935, that track was just insane. Can you imagine what this board would be like with models/track showing a hurricane coming down to SFL from Bermuda.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This will be the thread for the peeps to post in the comming days until invest 91L is tagged.

Luis we should merge this one and the "after 90L thread"..

No,they are very separated systems.

I don't like to disagree but they are exactly the same Luis..LOL

[RL3AO]

They look like different systems to be.

['CaneFreak]

I always like to pull climatology into play, one would be hard pressed to find more than a couple of tropical systems that have hit FL from the east during October.

Well, you can throw climatology out the window this year. Climatology says La Nina should have lower shear than normal and even the experts said it was near the long term averages for the month of September. Climatology said that we should not have seen two CAT 5 landfalls in the locales that saw them this year either. I usually go with what climatology says too because it is correct 90+ percent of the time but this season is clearly not following climo very well for some reason or another.

[Derek Ortt]

this is the after 90L system. This is the same as that thread. 90L is in the Gulf and this is the after 90L system

['CaneFreak]

So.....Derek...have any new thoughts on this system this evening?

[Blown Away]

Do we have a handle on where this cluster of convection is moving?

['CaneFreak]

It appears to be drifting maybe south right now imho...maybe its feeling that ridge...but yeah...a southwest movement should commence though...

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=108

[wxman57]

This Bahamas system is definitely what the GFS and likely the ECMWF are focusing on as far as TC development late this weekend in the NW Caribbean. With the ridge building over the east coast, mean flow across the region would be NE-SW, which could well take the mess into the NW Caribbean under a building ridge. The 2007 season is far from over given the strength of La Nina and the summer-like pattern in place across the east. It's more like early September out there in the tropics. I can't say with any confidence what this system will do, or if the models are right about bringing it southwest into the Caribbean yet. But I can say that if it does move southwest then it could be a BIG problem for the Gulf next week. Tremendous heat content and low shear could = major hurricane if everything comes together just right. European says NW Gulf, GFS trending more west, too. Texas isn't out of the woods with this one IF (big IF) it develops anything like the GFS or EC are forecasting. Something to keep a close eye on, but I'm not actually forecasting a hurricane in the Gulf out of this yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Texas isn't out of the woods? Wow. I wasn't expecting that from wxman57. What a surprise that would be if this area ended up getting hit with two systems in October (assuming 90L actually develops). Has TX ever been hit with two storms in October before?

[cycloneye]

This Bahamas system is definitely what the GFS and likely the ECMWF are focusing on as far as TC development late this weekend in the NW Caribbean. With the ridge building over the east coast, mean flow across the region would be NE-SW, which could well take the mess into the NW Caribbean under a building ridge. The 2007 season is far from over given the strength of La Nina and the summer-like pattern in place across the east. It's more like early September out there in the tropics. I can't say with any confidence what this system will do, or if the models are right about bringing it southwest into the Caribbean yet. But I can say that if it does move southwest then it could be a BIG problem for the Gulf next week. Tremendous heat content and low shear could = major hurricane if everything comes together just right. European says NW Gulf, GFS trending more west, too. Texas isn't out of the woods with this one IF (big IF) it develops anything like the GFS or EC are forecasting. Something to keep a close eye on, but I'm not actually forecasting a hurricane in the Gulf out of this yet.

As always a great summary of what is on tap with this new system.

A question 57.Is there going to be another upper low in the area that gives birth to something subtropical out of this? I ask as TD10 and invest 90L are similar about forming from upper lows.

[wxman57]

Texas isn't out of the woods? Wow. I wasn't expecting that from wxman57. What a surprise that would be if this area ended up getting hit with two systems in October (assuming 90L actually develops). Has TX ever been hit with two storms in October before?

12Z Euro long-range does indicate a slow moving storm in the SW Gulf Tuesday getting picked up and taken NNE toward the FL panhandle. though. That's probably more likely than TX trouble. Let's see, what 1995 storm did something like that in October...?