Western Caribbean Thread

#81 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:08 pm

looking forward to the 00z runs...Also some gusts to near TS force overnight near barbados and the southern windwards..

#82 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:14 pm

Vortex know that I am watching...although where is everybody? October/November can be very busy months in La Nina years....

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:19 pm

Montego Bay,Jamaica

Pressures there are below 1010 mbs with light winds and rain at times.

Cienfuegos,Cuba

Also the pressures are below 1010 mbs in Southern Cuba.

TheShrimper · #84 Postby **TheShrimper** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:38 pm

It's gonna have to gain some significant latitude to become a player. I havent had time to look at the set up, but if I am reading the posts correctly as to the model runs, it's to far south to be drawn up. Looks like a possible Joan into Bluefields, Nic. scenario setting up.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #85 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:48 pm

***NOT OFFICIAL OKAY NOT OFFICIAL

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This could really blow up if it gets going
easily a monster hurricane with those
explosive heat content profiles. And shear
will be low. Something in the Caribbean
is about to explode- the trough is over
the Caribbean like just before Wilma.

South Florida better watch closely.

HUC · #86 Postby **HUC** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:16 pm

Hello gustywind,weather fine,all is calm;;seems that Barbados got squally weather. Honestly, i don't think any rain or bad weather to night in Gpe...but, as usual,this my modest opinion :blow:

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:34 pm

8:05 PM TWD for Caribbean:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING IN SIZE AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
EAST AND WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ANOTHER ONE JUST SOUTH OF
CUBA ALONG 80W AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARE HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...IN SOUTHERN HAITI AND THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 19N TO LAND
BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
70W/71W MAY BE OR MAY NOT BE AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:57 pm

#89 Postby **gerrit** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 8:09 pm

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 102023 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST WED OCT 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LED TO MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. EXPECT THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DID
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...AND FOR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE VI
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.

THIS APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 64 WEST...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TOMORROW...REINFORCED BY A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 56 WEST...RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA BY
TOMORROW EVENING. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL THEN SLOWLY
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THESE WAVES LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

I keep saying : this is not even an invest...
Just a wave - for now at least

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 8:12 pm

Barbados Observations

In Barbados,nothing out of the ordinary with wave passage,winds not too strong,pressure not very low,in fact they are rising and some scattered showers.There is no low pressure with this wave.

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:16 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 110213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
WWWW

They are not so bullish with the Western Caribbean area right now.

#92 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:22 pm

00Z 10/11 NAM

+18 shows wave/low just west of the grenadines and just north of SA coastline

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

+30 Just North of SA coastline and due south of Haiti..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

+66 Per NAM gets drawn NW over Haiti as a result of low in Bahamas. GFS takes it westward and doesn't have turn for the lasr 4 rubs. We'll see what the 00Z GFS has in store....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:44 pm

As the TWD at 8 PM said,there may be a very weak low pressure just south of Cuba.

Hey folks,I am not alone here,I guess.

Come and post your thoughts about the Western Caribbean area.

#94 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 10:35 pm

00Z GFS rolling in...***6th run in a row in which low forms on wave***

+6 Over southern Windwards....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

+30 Over Eastern Carribean Sea...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

+48 low associated with wave now just N or SA coast and well S of DR
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

+60 low just N of SA and well S of Haiti
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

+84 Over SW carribean with an overall increase in convection
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

+90 Stronger(1007) and almost identical position of last 5 runs(very consistent)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

+96 a little stronger(1006)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

#95 Postby **BigA** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 10:46 pm

My thoughts are that there is plenty of convection, a monsoon trough, and environmental conditions that should remain fairly favorable. If anything develops, though, it will take a long time.

#96 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:36 pm

Looks to maintain itself over the SW carribean for a few days befoe the nwd move comences...

#97 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:41 pm

00Z NOGAPS

Nogpaps picking up on this system...

+12 over islands
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=012

+36 Over Eastern Carribean. South of PR
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=036

+48 South of DR
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=048

+72 Wave shows up from just se of Jamaica S to SA coastline
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=072

+84 South of Jamaica
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=084

H+96 Low develops on wave pver SW carribean
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=096

Day 7 placement of low similar to GFS..Other globals continue to trend towards development over the SW carribean in days 4-7 from the wave currently over the windwards...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

#98 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:05 am

Canadian also indicates low with wave now

+60 South of DR
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

+72 1010mb South of Jamaica
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 92_100.gif

H+96 Stronger 1005mb SW of Jamaica
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_096.jpg

Ptarmigan · #99 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:09 am

wxman57 wrote:I was looking back at the pattern of October 2005 and it looks very similar to what's out in the Caribbean now. Take a look at the NASA animation "27 Storms from Arlene to Zeta". I like the high-res 720x480 800+MB version. Note the trof axis across the Caribbean, the shear in the eastern Caribbean, and the ridge building over the western Caribbean just before Wilma formed.

Also note that Stan's track very closely paralleled 94L's track, though 94L never got going before moving into the Yucatan.

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003354/index.html

Wilma had near pefect conditions when it formed in 2005. I am a firm believer that monsoons play a role in tropical development. October 2005 had 7 storms forming, which was the most that season. Also, October is when it starts winding down. I wonder if that monsoon trough that spawned Wilma, spawned any other storms that time, like TS Alpha?

#100 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:25 am

6Z NAM also picks up on it now and has the wave/low SSE of Jamaica and just of the NW coastline of SA. The consensus is growing stronger that there will be some low associated with the wave to the S/SSE of Jamaica in 72 hours,

+84 NAM at 6z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

***6 Z GFS rolling in shortly***

Western Caribbean Thread

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Re: Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player?

Re: Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player?

Re: Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player?

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Re: Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player?

Re: Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player?

Re: Wave E of Lesser Antilles to become SIGNIFICANT player?

Re: Western Caribbean Thread=10:30 PM TWO at page 2

Re: Western Caribbean Thread=10:30 PM TWO at page 2

00Z GFS rolling in..

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