Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[wxman57]

I think it was a combination of stronger-than-normal wind shear across the deep tropics (mostly due to El Nino) and plenty of dry, sinking air that killed the 2014 and 2015 seasons in the deep tropics. Early signs are that both of those have reversed for 2016. While I don't expect any Atlantic development over the next 2-3 weeks, I think the season will spring to life by the second week of August.

[Hammy]

CFS is continuing to show a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Florida from the east in the last days of July/first days of August, followed by a second (much stronger storm) at the end of August--the timing is highly doubtful as to whether it's correct this far out, but the takeaway is that the steering flow is leaning towards more W-WNW systems in the subtropics, and combined with the lower shear, the pattern is much more favorable for landfalling systems this year.

[NDG]

What a difference a year makes, from record breaking windshear over the Caribbean to near average over all since the official beginning of the hurricane season.




CFS showing below average windshear along with lowering MSLPs towards the end of the month, its precipitation forecast perhaps telling us that track of tropical waves and or possible storms.

[JaxGator]

CFS is continuing to show a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Florida from the east in the last days of July/first days of August, followed by a second (much stronger storm) at the end of August--the timing is highly doubtful as to whether it's correct this far out, but the takeaway is that the steering flow is leaning towards more W-WNW systems in the subtropics, and combined with the lower shear, the pattern is much more favorable for landfalling systems this year.

I can't upload the image but thought it was an interesting read from Joe Bastardi. Don't know how the pattern will shape up for late July and beyond but for now, it looks ominous.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Jun 28 Pennsylvania, USA
2005 500 mb Aug-Oct vs SST analog 500 mb forecast gives our worry about high impact season some backing.

[Hammy]

I just did a quick analysis of the last 13 El Nino hurricane seasons (all since 1970, so within reliable satellite era) and found an average of 8/4/1 and 50 ACE, last year was 11/4/2 with 63 ACE, so along with a more active MDR, and a much stronger last two months than we've seen in some time, it could have been an indication of better atmospheric conditions already returning. I remember a lot of talk about what would last year have looked like minus the shear--I won't discount getting the answer to that question this year.

[SFLcane]

CFS...

[WPBWeather]

CFS...

Now, where's that "Permanent Trough" when you need it??

[NDG]

CFS is continuing to show a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Florida from the east in the last days of July/first days of August, followed by a second (much stronger storm) at the end of August--the timing is highly doubtful as to whether it's correct this far out, but the takeaway is that the steering flow is leaning towards more W-WNW systems in the subtropics, and combined with the lower shear, the pattern is much more favorable for landfalling systems this year.

I can't upload the image but thought it was an interesting read from Joe Bastardi. Don't know how the pattern will shape up for late July and beyond but for now, it looks ominous.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Jun 28 Pennsylvania, USA
2005 500 mb Aug-Oct vs SST analog 500 mb forecast gives our worry about high impact season some backing.

[JaxGator]

CFS is continuing to show a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Florida from the east in the last days of July/first days of August, followed by a second (much stronger storm) at the end of August--the timing is highly doubtful as to whether it's correct this far out, but the takeaway is that the steering flow is leaning towards more W-WNW systems in the subtropics, and combined with the lower shear, the pattern is much more favorable for landfalling systems this year.

I can't upload the image but thought it was an interesting read from Joe Bastardi. Don't know how the pattern will shape up for late July and beyond but for now, it looks ominous.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Jun 28 Pennsylvania, USA
2005 500 mb Aug-Oct vs SST analog 500 mb forecast gives our worry about high impact season some backing.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmFdtK8UgAAnFQp.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmFeJvUVAAEHxD1.jpg

Thank you NDG.

[Hammy]

Does this give credibility to what the CFS is showing, at least as far as steering and not necessarily storms at those particular times?

[JaxGator]

I guess it might if the steering holds true, but they are similar.

[gatorcane]

I don't remember the super long-range CFS showing much of anything this time last year as far as Atlantic development. It seems to be showing multiple systems in the super-long range already.

[Hurricaneman]

Likely the last few days of the month through early October will be really busy and with steering currents like are predicted the east coast and eastern gulf need to pay very close attention during that time period, looks very similar to 1985, 1998 and 2004

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[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: And we know how 1998 turned out to be folks.
That is one heck of an analog year so far, we might see a very eventful year if this season blows up in August - September like that year, and let's not forget the Caribbean late season as well if indeed things remain 1998-ish by Oct-Nov.

1998 was a brutal season for sure with Georges and Mitch.

[Steve]

CFS is continuing to show a tropical storm or hurricane hitting Florida from the east in the last days of July/first days of August, followed by a second (much stronger storm) at the end of August--the timing is highly doubtful as to whether it's correct this far out, but the takeaway is that the steering flow is leaning towards more W-WNW systems in the subtropics, and combined with the lower shear, the pattern is much more favorable for landfalling systems this year.

I can't upload the image but thought it was an interesting read from Joe Bastardi. Don't know how the pattern will shape up for late July and beyond but for now, it looks ominous.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Jun 28 Pennsylvania, USA
2005 500 mb Aug-Oct vs SST analog 500 mb forecast gives our worry about high impact season some backing.

That's pretty close to a nightmare scenario at 500mb. I think it would/could be worse if the heights were centered about 200 miles farther south. But still, heights like those over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US for any length of time during the peak of the season conceivably set up a conveyer belt toward Florida and the SE US. Let's hope if semi-permanent high pressure sets up for a few weeks/months in the northeast that it's during a down pulse of MJO and source waves.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure if this will impact the season or not, but South American drought is very bad right now. I can't remember if I saw someone trying to say that South American drought helped contribute to the 2013 flop (didn't see a mention on a quick scan of the Wiki page for what it's worth).

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88308&src=ve

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'm not sure if this will impact the season or not, but South American drought is very bad right now. I can't remember if I saw someone trying to say that South American drought helped contribute to the 2013 flop (didn't see a mention on a quick scan of the Wiki page for what it's worth).

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88308&src=ve

Good and hopefully this ends up being the nail in the coffin for this season.

[WPBWeather]

I'm not sure if this will impact the season or not, but South American drought is very bad right now. I can't remember if I saw someone trying to say that South American drought helped contribute to the 2013 flop (didn't see a mention on a quick scan of the Wiki page for what it's worth).

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88308&src=ve

Good and hopefully this ends up being the nail in the coffin for this season.

Come on now. Don't throw a bomb. A SA drought has nothing to do with the ATL season. And, lets hope for a quiet season, but there only is hope, no science to say otherwise.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'm not sure if this will impact the season or not, but South American drought is very bad right now. I can't remember if I saw someone trying to say that South American drought helped contribute to the 2013 flop (didn't see a mention on a quick scan of the Wiki page for what it's worth).

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88308&src=ve

Good and hopefully this ends up being the nail in the coffin for this season.

Come on now. Don't throw a bomb. A SA drought has nothing to do with the ATL season. And, lets hope for a quiet season, but there only is hope, no science to say otherwise.

Positive vibes toward a slow season. The 500 mb set up is scary and it means we need less TWs.

[1900hurricane]

To be fair, I don't remember where I read such a thing. It may end up having no correlation at all if it was mere speculation or if it was from an unreliable source.