2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Because this year so far has been a dud, all I could muster out was a "meh" when I saw that.

To be fair it matches my idea of more favorable conditions come August 5 but right now I'll only get bullish once development is imminent.

[hurricanes1234]

Agreed. The GFS has been relentless in blowing up all these ridiculous, unrealistic megacanes that never materialise, so as Yellow Evan rightfully said, it makes more sense to wait until something is actually developing in real life to believe it. And even then, I would still be sceptical and wait until it strengthens considerably and steadily, because we've also seen cases this season (or one case in particular) where it anticipates a category 4 or 5 and instead, we get a storm struggling with dry air intrusion and shear.

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed. The GFS has been relentless in blowing up all these ridiculous, unrealistic megacanes that never materialise, so as Yellow Evan rightfully said, it makes more sense to wait until something is actually developing in real life to believe it. And even then, I would still be sceptical and wait until it strengthens considerably and steadily, because we've also seen cases this season (or one case in particular) where it anticipates a category 4 or 5 and instead, we get a storm struggling with dry air intrusion and shear.

Oh, if we actually get a storm that looks to be flourishing, I'll be onboard the major train without much skeptsicsm. People are way too easy to get on the Cat 5 train since Cat 5's in the EPAC are legitimately very tough to pull off but otherwise with a well developed system, it's game on. It may not be a smooth ride all the way but this basin has a long history. Every once and a while you get one that doesn't pan out (Fabio this year and Hilary last year are examples of this, and even then both nearly became a major); however, that's not grounds for long-term skepticism as you should know very well this basin has a long history of overpreforming storms. Look no further than Aletta (which everyone seems to have forgotten about) for proof.

[Kingarabian]

GFS doesn't have the 0/20 anymore, and Euro coming in weaker again.

One more page to add to the book of Ghost storms.

[cycloneye]

I will believe that sub-900 mb thing when I see it in real time.

[Alyono]

Wow look how strong the GFS is making this long-range EPAC system:

WOLF! WOLF!

It's hard to take the GFS seriously when all it does is yell WOLF! WOLF!

[cycloneye]

Well,at least GFS is consistent in all the runs with the strong one now after day 5 vs Euro that starts on day 7.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some slow development of this system while it
moves westward to west-northwestward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 93E is up Can EPAC squezze the second July TC?

[cycloneye]

With GFS beggining development in 5 days and Euro on day 6 is comming close to being mentioned in TWO. (Maybe at 5 PM PDT)

[Kingarabian]

Residents near or in Baja should be vigilant next week and monitor track shifts. Waters appear to be warm enough to support a potential Cat.5 Baja landfall:

[cycloneye]

It was not at 5 PM PDT as I guess they will wait for the 00z models package.

[Kingarabian]

It was not at 5 PM PDT as I guess they will wait for the 00z models package.

Just realized we'll potentially have fun recon missions.

[cycloneye]

It was not at 5 PM PDT as I guess they will wait for the 00z models package.

Just realized we'll potentially have fun recon missions.

What?

[Kingarabian]

It was not at 5 PM PDT as I guess they will wait for the 00z models package.

Just realized we'll potentially have fun recon missions.

What?

For the big storm the GFS and Euro are showing that may threaten baja -- potential Hector or Ileana

[cycloneye]

Just realized we'll potentially have fun recon missions.

What?

For the big storm the GFS and Euro are showing that may threaten baja -- potential Hector or Ileana

Oh ok.Is a very long road for that if it happens at all.

[Yellow Evan]

Just realized we'll potentially have fun recon missions.

What?

For the big storm the GFS and Euro are showing that may threaten baja -- potential Hector or Ileana

I don't think it'll turn out to be a serious Baja threat right now. Track will likely be like Marie 14 except further west judging by model biases (at this point, they'll have a west bias)

[Kingarabian]

Strong signal for this one it looks like. Good GEFS support this far out:

[Kazmit]

GFS has been consistent with making this a cat 5.