2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SoupBone]

Getting to that time of year. Michael came from this type of setup

Typically, but not always obviously, where Florida becomes a higher landfall threat. Are there stats for state landfalls in October?

[DioBrando]

Since the girls have been getting gypped all season, I'm guessing this will be Nestor, and Melissa will be something weak and short-lived elsewhere.

To be a strong hurricane in the Atlantic in 2019:
1) be male
2) have an exotic-sounding name

I have a feeling that's gonna be Nestor too

[Ubuntwo]

Getting to that time of year. Michael came from this type of setup

Typically, but not always obviously, where Florida becomes a higher landfall threat. Are there stats for state landfalls in October?

Not sure of the specifics, but I know that the month Florida gets the most landfalls is actually October.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is your classic October Florida hurricane. Its fantasy land.....but something to watch as the calendar flips to October in a few days




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[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176978192688484353

[Jr0d]

Here is your classic October Florida hurricane. Its fantasy land.....but something to watch as the calendar flips to October in a few days

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190925/509651939faf6492de310633696c3642.png

The next one to watch....only a week or so away from developing

[WeatherEmperor]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176978192688484353

I have a question about this. How long are the favorable conditions expected to last for the Caribbean?


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[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176978192688484353

I have a question about this. How long are the favorable conditions expected to last for the Caribbean?


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Until late October I believe but that could change

[psyclone]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176978192688484353

I have a question about this. How long are the favorable conditions expected to last for the Caribbean?


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Until late October I believe but that could change

There's actually a secondary climo peak around mid month that accounts for activity down there. If we get a storm early in the month we would have time for more than one should the stars align. I think Florida averages about 1 hurricane landfall every 5 Octobers. IIRC Michael was the first October landfall since Wilma so...you could say we still have make up work.. With very strong ridging in the east...I'd remain very interested farther west in the Gulf as well..

[EquusStorm]

Just remember that the last three M storms were all category fives that made landfall with winds of at least 150mph so uh, anything in the Caribbean going to get me to staring at it really fast lol

[tolakram]

Euro showing another CV like system out in the eastern Atlantic. We're almost a month behind normal it seems.

[SFLcane]

Extreme long range but 06z GEFS still showing pretty good clustering of Ensemble members in the western Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS has genesis in the E Gulf at 240.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS has genesis in the E Gulf at 240.

Yep. Just mentioned this in the chatroom

[toad strangler]

Said 12z GFS genesis meanders around the E GOM for four days through far flung 324hrs.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS has genesis in the E Gulf at 240.

Yep. Just mentioned this in the chatroom

12z Legacy has genesis at 216 just N of the Yucatan.

[sma10]

Said 12z GFS genesis meanders around the E GOM for four days through far flung 324hrs.

Make that 5 days.
And counting.

[DestinHurricane]

12Z CMC has Hurricane in the gulf with unusual track. 985 mb at 240 hours.

[sma10]

12Z CMC has Hurricane in the gulf with unusual track. 985 mb at 240 hours.

Also has a decently organized wave approaching the northern Leewards. GFS has same wave at 240, only less organized.

[LarryWx]

Extreme long range but 06z GEFS still showing pretty good clustering of Ensemble members in the western Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/patR3RD.png

This extreme long range W Car. action also shows up on the 12Z GEFS with actual TC genesis down to 1003 or lower for ~2/3 of the members 10/8-12 with 40% of the ~21 members getting down to 999 or lower. This is the easily the strongest signal of any GEFS run so in that area for that timeframe, especially as regards 999 mb or stronger TCs. This would be after the period now showing GOM TCs at days 9-10 on some models. So, this could very well be something different.