2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Teban54]

I'm sure most people already know this, but just as a refresher:


Having a storm develop where and when Bret and Cindy did is highly anomalous, especially for an El Nino year. This shouldn't have happened in the first place.

Having a storm develop where and when 93E failed to do so is normal, especially for an El Nino year. Most systems like 93E should have little difficulty developing.

And we haven't talked about intensity yet. Even though Bret failed to become a hurricane, an average Atlantic season doesn't get its first hurricane until August 11. On the other hand, many El Nino seasons in the EPac already had one or more majors and Cat 4s on this date, or were just about to get them. 2014 had two Cat 4s, 2015 was getting its 3rd, 2018 had two.

El Nino alone does not define seasonal activity. Just like La Nina alone doesn't (see last year).

[tolakram]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

Seems high for an el nino year.

[ElectricStorm]

So two storms that actually "busted"? Right. The pattern which supported those is gone too

At least they could develop unlike 93E

93E would've been designated if it was in the West Pacific

What does that have to do with any of this? And no it probably wouldn't since it was never close to a TC. And I'm not really sure why you think Bret and Cindy were busts since the fact they even existed in the first place was a massive overperformance...

[weeniepatrol]

That season to date mdr easterly shear is wild given the amplitude of El Niño.

[Iceresistance]

Holy crap, and they said that this is NOT an error!

 https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1678177613284622337

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1678444929268293633



Tweet text:
While all eyes have been on the +AMO and record warm surface temperatures globally, the -PDO continues to hold strong. In fact, last month featured the coldest June PDO (per NCEI) in the past 100+ years at -2.59. The only colder years were 1880, 1890, and 1894.

[LarryWx]

Holy crap, and they said that this is NOT an error!

https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1678177613284622337

Per the site noted below, Johnson Key, which is just off the S tip of the FL peninsula, hit 96.75F at 5PM on 7/10/23! I wonder how shallow the water is there. The morning water temp low, which was at 9AM, was 89.42F. So, the day's range was 7.33F, pretty wide for an offshore buoy's water temps. So, I assume it is quite shallow.

Johnson Key buoy data:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678725397960339457

@AndyHazelton
The July UKMET precip forecast certainly stands out compared to recent July +ENSO forecasts during +ENSO years (both in the Pacific and Atlantic). Whether that translates to more Atlantic TCs remains to be seen, but definitely interesting to see the climate models go "all in".

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678725397960339457

@AndyHazelton
The July UKMET precip forecast certainly stands out compared to recent July +ENSO forecasts during +ENSO years (both in the Pacific and Atlantic). Whether that translates to more Atlantic TCs remains to be seen, but definitely interesting to see the climate models go "all in".

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1678755167955451904

[LarryWx]

Holy crap, and they said that this is NOT an error!

https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1678177613284622337

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
0136 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AND RECORD WARM LOW SET AT MARATHON
TODAY...

TODAY'S HIGH AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REACHED 97 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, SETTING A NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS MOST RECENT RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES, SET IN 2020.

TODAY'S LOW AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ONLY
FELL TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, SETTING A NEW DAILY WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 84, SET IN 2009.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
----------------

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023

..RECORD WARM LOW SET AT KEY WEST

YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
WAS 86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, SETTING A NEW DAILY WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 85, SET IN 2007.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678790877442084868

@AndyHazelton
Here's an update to the "analog comparison" SST anomaly plots (using OISST). I'm mostly comparing with other recent Niño years, but I added 2017 and 2008. Atlantic is so much warmer this year still than most of these analogs. -PDO/-PMM stands out compared to 2015. (1/2)

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678790880214519809

The ENSO tongue (along the equator) is warmer than most analogs (except 1997/2015). But the "ENSO horseshoe" in the WPAC is still warm this year (typically cooler when +ENSO develops). So it's an interesting, odd combination of factors in the Pacific. (2/2)

[Hurricane2022]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678790877442084868

@AndyHazelton
Here's an update to the "analog comparison" SST anomaly plots (using OISST). I'm mostly comparing with other recent Niño years, but I added 2017 and 2008. Atlantic is so much warmer this year still than most of these analogs. -PDO/-PMM stands out compared to 2015. (1/2)

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678790880214519809

The ENSO tongue (along the equator) is warmer than most analogs (except 1997/2015). But the "ENSO horseshoe" in the WPAC is still warm this year (typically cooler when +ENSO develops). So it's an interesting, odd combination of factors in the Pacific. (2/2)

All of this makes me laugh when I remember that we were talking here that 2022 was being a very strange year.

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678790877442084868

@AndyHazelton
Here's an update to the "analog comparison" SST anomaly plots (using OISST). I'm mostly comparing with other recent Niño years, but I added 2017 and 2008. Atlantic is so much warmer this year still than most of these analogs. -PDO/-PMM stands out compared to 2015. (1/2)

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1678790880214519809

The ENSO tongue (along the equator) is warmer than most analogs (except 1997/2015). But the "ENSO horseshoe" in the WPAC is still warm this year (typically cooler when +ENSO develops). So it's an interesting, odd combination of factors in the Pacific. (2/2)

All of this makes me laugh when I remember that we were talking here that 2022 was being a very strange year.

All very fascinating given with warming oceans at a steady rate overall, and competing upper patterns as a result going forward we'll be saying a lot how things are strange and different. Every year seems to bring a greater level of OHC and marine heat waves at various locations. with fewer and fewer analog support.

[cycloneye]

The European for ASO.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1678837797904588803

@BenNollWeather
Wow- the ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for August-October 2023 -the heart of hurricane season- remains very active!

It shows above normal rainfall in the eastern and central Atlantic, across the islands, near Florida, and along the Southeast U.S. coast, suggestive of the potential for increased tropical storm and hurricane activity.

*Superblend = combination of the ECMWF and UKMET seasonal forecasting systems, consisting of about 110 ensemble members. They make up the two best seasonal models whose data is freely available, depending on location.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1678837888707076098

@BenNollWeather
ECMWF continues to show the Pacific Ocean and El Niño competing with a very warm Atlantic Ocean and Africa in the months ahead...

- rising cells over the eastern Pacific as well as Africa and the Atlantic (a signal for enhanced tropical activity)

Depending on which cell turns out to be more dominant will influence which basin is most tropically active.

sinking cell over the eastern Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent (a signal for suppressed tropical activity)

[cycloneye]

The CPC Global Hazards graphic has MDR in red from the 19th thru the 25th.

[LarryWx]

Holy crap, and they said that this is NOT an error!

https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1678177613284622337

Marathon today was a degree hotter for the high, 98, which is another record high! Today's 98 has been exceeded in recorded history only twice: 99 on 6/17/1972 and 7/15/1987. The low so far today is 84. If that holds, it would be a 2nd day in a row of a record high low.

[Spacecoast]

The CPC Global Hazards graphic has MDR in red from the 19th thru the 25th.

Seems to match ECMWF weekly (TD probabilities)..


Has anyone noticed any differences in the new 101 member weeklies?
It seems logical that going from 51 to 101 members would result in wider spread, but it's possible that the additional members were added to increase 'resolution' within the same range, rather than a larger range of initial possibilities (perturbations).

[LemieT]

The CPC Global Hazards graphic has MDR in red from the 19th thru the 25th.

Seems to match ECMWF weekly (TD probabilities)..
https://i.ibb.co/gS6RFtk/ec8.jpg

Has anyone noticed any differences in the new 101 member weeklies?
It seems logical that going from 51 to 101 members would result in wider spread, but it's possible that the additional members were added to increase 'resolution' within the same range, rather than a larger range of initial possibilities (perturbations).

I'd say reason two is likely the most plausible and perhaps the most sensible. A higher density forecast so to speak would likely increase confidence since 51 different initializations is a reasonable spread.

[SFLcane]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/ad4PPEH-Pws[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

https://youtu.be/ad4PPEH-Pws

Great video that shows how Mark explains in a calm and clear way, the topics on hand. Hopefully, what he explains there does not pan out for me and our friends in the NE Caribbean islands.