TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

aaaaah I love watching model updates all day long!! lol

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

did models intialize too far north...i guess there guess is as good as ours..

[dwg71]

Correct me if I'm wrong but arent the BAMM models - deep tropics models that arent reliable this far north??

[wxman57]

I would remind everyone that the BAMM/BAMD models are generally not the best ones to use out of the deep tropics. They don't really employ much in the way of physics. And they both assume a strong tropical storm.

Here's a new loop with an 1845Z image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopaug9.gif

[wxwatcher91]

1008mb!!!! IRENE IS BOMBING OUT!!!

[sma10]

I would remind everyone that the BAMM/BAMD models are generally not the best ones to use out of the deep tropics. They don't really employ much in the way of physics. And they both assume a strong tropical storm.

That is true. I agree. The BAMMs (especially BAMM) have been consistently further south and west than the Globals, but they have been consistent at least. Time may very well prove that the BAMMs were consistently wrong.

I'm just interested to see what happens as Irene gets further and further west. Do the globals trend toward the BAMMs or vice versa.

[clfenwi]

oops, sorry about that... see below...

[sma10]

WHXX01 KWBC 091840
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 1200 050810 0000 050810 1200 050811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.1N 59.0W
BAMM 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.3W 22.5N 57.5W 23.0N 59.8W
A98E 22.2N 53.4W 22.2N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.2N 58.9W
LBAR 22.2N 53.4W 22.2N 55.0W 22.8N 57.1W 23.5N 59.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 1200 050812 1200 050813 1200 050814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 61.0W 25.7N 64.9W 26.7N 67.6W 26.9N 70.6W
BAMM 23.6N 62.0W 24.8N 66.4W 25.4N 69.8W 25.6N 72.9W
A98E 24.3N 61.1W 25.7N 64.9W 26.8N 67.7W 27.0N 70.0W
LBAR 24.3N 61.4W 26.6N 64.8W 28.4N 66.3W 29.0N 67.4W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 63KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Two model runs were done... the one posted earlier used an initalized position of 22.5/54.0 ...looks like the graphics used the one with the more northern/western initialization.

This was just a retread from earlier. Note the time stamp: 1200Z

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Things will get interesting...based on track

[superfly]

I would remind everyone that the BAMM/BAMD models are generally not the best ones to use out of the deep tropics. They don't really employ much in the way of physics. And they both assume a strong tropical storm.

Here's a new loop with an 1845Z image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopaug9.gif

Could be a trick of the eye, but there seems to be a clearly defined center in the last frame there at 22.2N, 53.4W.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

System looks like it's having an intensification stage.

[baygirl_1]

wxman57- thanks for the great loop! It sure looks as though all that energy in Irene is starting to get focused into one circulation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Warmer ssts in the forecast for this?

[WeatherEmperor]

I remember some of you saying that in this case if Irene gets stronger it could head more Westerly and if it stays weak then it will turn more towards the north. Is this still the case or have things changed a bit?

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

At this point, the banding features and outflow denote an organizing system. Thanks wxman for those loops. The talk about the presence of a closed circulation seem moot for now, other than fixing the positions. It won't be hard soon when the eyewall forms.

[clfenwi]

Talking about models... during part of my boredom period (after I had figured out what was the most six hour periods that a tropical system remained a tropical depression), I got to looking at verifications for 'interesting' storms of the past few years.

The storms were:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

and

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

In the case of Kate, the higher latitude and the late season were probably the contributing factors for the abysmal performance of the limited area tropics models. The 72/96/120 hour errors of LBAR were 524, 833, and 966 nautical miles respectively. 120 hour error of the deep BAM was a whopping 1615 nautical miles. Official NHC error was 288/363/406 for 72-120 hr. Models that beat NHC were GFS, GFDL, and NOGAPS. UKMET had horrific error numbers due to missing Kate's western turn.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003kate.shtml?

Despite the twists and turns, average errors weren't nearly as bad for Kyle. Shallow BAM actually edged out the official forecast error for 120 hours (182 v 190). GFDl was the top performer for all but 120h, where the UKMET was tops.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002kyle.shtml

With Erin, GFS beat the official forecasts across the board with GFDI also doing well in the later periods. With the exception of the medium BAM, the tropical models were back of the pack performance-wise.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001erin.html

You can't infer too much from these numbers since every storm is different and some of the models change over the years. I bring it up because it is fairly interesting and the case of Kate is certainly an eye-opener.

[baygirl_1]

Warmer ssts in the forecast for this?

This may not be the best map, but it does show that SSTs are pretty warm ahead of Irene:
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/atlm.html

[Ivanhater]

this unfolding situation is not looking good

[gkrangers]

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl ... 050809.gif

Here is a heat content map...there is alot of fuel near the US east coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

Warmer ssts in the forecast for this?

This may not be the best map, but it does show that SSTs are pretty warm ahead of Irene:
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/atlm.html

that is the map that I always use. pretty darn warm waters off FL east coast dont ya agree?

<RICKY>