ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hunabku]

The following is relavent to our previous discussion about increasing likelyhood of Modiki warning trend https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15386

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

[Ntxw]

The following is relavent to our previous discussion about increasing likelyhood of Modiki warning trend https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15386

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

In addition the changing SST's is also contributing to discrepancies of datasets what set of years you use effects what anomalies result. The ways it effects the atmosphere is an evolving change.

[TheStormExpert]

HurricaneTack's Mark Sudduth is gradually jumping off the El Niño bandwagon. He says the window for an El Niño to develop and influence the Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly closing and that an El Niño still may form come mid-late Fall or Winter.

[Kingarabian]

HurricaneTack's Mark Sudduth is gradually jumping off the El Niño bandwagon. He says the window for an El Niño to develop and influence the Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly closing and that an El Niño still may form come mid-late Fall or Winter.

I don't think Mark Sudduth was ever for an El Nino this season. But he was basing his reasoning on CDAS values when they had that false negative drop, and pointing out that the subsurface was not impressive. He also pointed out that the warmer anomalies are deep in the ocean while the anomalies at the surface are cooler, so there isn't enough time for an El Nino to develop.

Yet:
We're at 4 weeks in a row with >= 0.5C values.
The subsurface although not that impressive, has enough to maintain a weak to moderate El-Nino. No one was forecasting a strong or super El Nino this year.
The cooler anomalies near the surface haven't been an impediment due to the easterlies acting strangely.

A lot of people are just simply ignoring the fact that the current background state favors warmth at the current moment (see the positive PDO).

[Kingarabian]

SOI will start to tank today. Very strong signal from the models that this will continue well into June. I believe this will determine if we'll see an El-Nino by the peak of the season or not.

[weathaguyry]

SOI comes in at 1.24 today, so no huge negative drop yet, the SOI average for May came in at 0.68, showing the inconsistency of the SOI especially as of late

[Kingarabian]

SOI comes in at 1.24 today, so no huge negative drop yet, the SOI average for May came in at 0.68, showing the inconsistency of the SOI especially as of late

1.24, down from 12.00. Pretty big drop. It'll be negative from here on out. Some models have a negative setup until June 20th. Very good chance we'll see a WWB if this materializes.

[AutoPenalti]

SOI comes in at 1.24 today, so no huge negative drop yet, the SOI average for May came in at 0.68, showing the inconsistency of the SOI especially as of late

1.24, down from 12.00. Pretty big drop. It'll be negative from here on out. Some models have a negative setup until June 20th. Very good chance we'll see a WWB if this materializes.

So what does that mean for the Atlantic?

Less activity than forecasted?

[weathaguyry]

SOI comes in at 1.24 today, so no huge negative drop yet, the SOI average for May came in at 0.68, showing the inconsistency of the SOI especially as of late

1.24, down from 12.00. Pretty big drop. It'll be negative from here on out. Some models have a negative setup until June 20th. Very good chance we'll see a WWB if this materializes.

So what does that mean for the Atlantic?

Less activity than forecasted?

I believe it means that another subsurface warm pool could form, and may lead for a very weak Nino later in the season, IMO it will have minimal effects for the Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Kingarabian]

Well just look at that. The warm pool has reached the surface. The winds should shift west soon, but easterlies are still in control. So let's see if the easterlies can fend off the warm pool. Or else we'll be in an El Nino sooner than later.

[dexterlabio]

Well just look at that. The warm pool has reached the surface. The winds should shift west soon, but easterlies are still in control. So let's see if the easterlies can fend off the warm pool. Or else we'll be in an El Nino sooner than later.

Looks interesting, but IMO we're still 50/50 in getting an El Nino before the year ends. I must say this year is no 2015 by looking at the subsurface temps alone, I don't know when we will see such pronounced event again. Some people might have already been used to the perfect conditions present in 2015 that paved the way for a super El Nino, but I say that 2015 shouldn't be used as some sort of benchmark to predict if El Nino is coming or not.

[AutoPenalti]

Well just look at that. The warm pool has reached the surface. The winds should shift west soon, but easterlies are still in control. So let's see if the easterlies can fend off the warm pool. Or else we'll be in an El Nino sooner than later.

Wow, drastic changes since a couple of weeks ago.

[WeatherEmperor]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/Oje

Well just look at that. The warm pool has reached the surface. The winds should shift west soon, but easterlies are still in control. So let's see if the easterlies can fend off the warm pool. Or else we'll be in an El Nino sooner than later.

Remember how the Euro's mean was showing + 0.8 for 3.4 while the CFS and POAMA were backing off and going neutral? The new Euro forecast should be out any day now and I expect it to continue showing weak/moderate El Nino for ASO peak of the season.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Wow, drastic changes since a couple of weeks ago.

Just have to wonder if the Euro and the GFS were over doing their easterlies forecast.

[Kingarabian]

[ig]http://i.imgur.com/OjemgrV.gif[/img]

Well just look at that. The warm pool has reached the surface. The winds should shift west soon, but easterlies are still in control. So let's see if the easterlies can fend off the warm pool. Or else we'll be in an El Nino sooner than later.

Looks interesting, but IMO we're still 50/50 in getting an El Nino before the year ends. I must say this year is no 2015 by looking at the subsurface temps alone, I don't know when we will see such pronounced event again. Some people might have already been used to the perfect conditions present in 2015 that paved the way for a super El Nino, but I say that 2015 shouldn't be used as some sort of benchmark to predict if El Nino is coming or not.

I agree that 2015 should not been used as a barometer for this year and not for a while. It was a super El Nino that happens every so many years.

However if you use 2002, 2006, and 2009 as a mixture of analogs, you will see that those events took a while to materialize and there are soke similarities with this year.

[Kingarabian]

Possible WWB in the far western Pacific.

[NDG]

http://i.imgur.com/iNbng2o.png

Possible WWB in the far western Pacific.

120E is over mostly land areas.

[NDG]

Nice graphic animation of how Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 has cooled over the past few weeks.

[SouthFloridian92]

Modoki...

[Kingarabian]

Modoki...

Need la nina values at 1+2 for there to be a true Modoki event.