ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Buoys week to week suggest Monday will be +/- 0.5C again

http://3.1m.yt/a3KUNBQ.jpg

Here's a more detailed image.

Possibly we keep +0.6C since the 0.7C line is above the equator @ 140W.

NDG what options do you toggle on the TAO site? Or do you simply just click on all the buoys?

[Kingarabian]

Saw this on twitter in regards to the U-winds:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/870968492220198913



 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/870969730991095808

[NDG]

It makes perfect sense why there's a difference between the two ECMWF forecast maps. One covers more latitude than the other one.

[Ntxw]

Both charts says 5S-5N though it seems. But I can understand the discrepancies again via different climo datasets and/or color bars.

[weathaguyry]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/870609089100959744

[Kingarabian]

Both charts says 5S-5N though it seems. But I can understand the discrepancies again via different climo datasets and/or color bars.

It looks like the met captain_kirk_wx originally posted the Hovmoller with 15s-15n. But even at 5s-5n it shows a lot of westerlies east of 120W...

[Ntxw]

Here's a daily view of global SST anomalies from NCEP. To mention at least per their site, it incorporates buoys and satellites



http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

Seems pretty neat to me and you can click on different areas for up close view

[Kingarabian]

Agreed. think that'll solve the debate on which SST anomaly graphic to use.

Looks like there's going to be weak WWB at Nino 1+2 soon. You can expect it to recover if it verifies due to Nino 1+2 being upper wind sensitive since it's so shallow.

[Alyono]

:uarrow:

Agreed. think that'll solve the debate on which SST anomaly graphic to use.

Looks like there's going to be weak WWB at Nino 1+2 soon. You can expect it to recover if it verifies due to Nino 1+2 being upper wind sensitive since it's so shallow.

that may be due to the TC the MU tries to develop in the 7-10 day time period. If it does not develop there, there will not be the westerly wind anomaly

[RL3AO]

Still has the westerlies near EQ starting in a few days. I won't speculate what it means for ENSO, but it probably makes me a little more supportive of the possible TC next week.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's a daily view of global SST anomalies from NCEP. To mention at least per their site, it incorporates buoys and satellites



http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

Seems pretty neat to me and you can click on different areas for up close view

I clicked on the web URL and when looking at the anomaly graphics it shows it uses SST temp anomalies from 1961 - 1990. That is pretty far back in time. Does this have any affect on the current most up to date anomalies??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

Agreed. think that'll solve the debate on which SST anomaly graphic to use.

Looks like there's going to be weak WWB at Nino 1+2 soon. You can expect it to recover if it verifies due to Nino 1+2 being upper wind sensitive since it's so shallow.

that may be due to the TC the MU tries to develop in the 7-10 day time period. If it does not develop there, there will not be the westerly wind anomaly

I believe an in-place present WWB generates a tropical cyclone since they produce counter clock wise rotation, important for development of a tropical low. I don't think WWBs are created in result of a tropical cyclone forming.

Some examples of WWB induced TC development.

2017: We just saw Cyclone Mora in the Indian ocean due to a strong WWB.

2015: A WWB triggered the formation of Typhoon Chan-hom. We also saw Tropical Storm Pali form in the CPAC due to a strong WWB.

2002 had Cyclone Kesiny in the Indian Ocean which formed from a WWB in that basin.

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody know what the ECMWF' June ENSO forecast shows? I know nobody can post the paid version and the free version comes out in a week or so...but just wanna get an idea what it shows now


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Ntxw]

Seems pretty neat to me and you can click on different areas for up close view

I clicked on the web URL and when looking at the anomaly graphics it shows it uses SST temp anomalies from 1961 - 1990. That is pretty far back in time. Does this have any affect on the current most up to date anomalies??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

It likely does as 30 year base periods are generally kept. SSTs today are warmer than back then so the saturation my seem a little warmer relative to average but overall actual SSTs is pretty good.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 looks like it will hold 0.6C again this week at the update. Nino 1+2 cooled a bit again this week down to 0.2C

[NDG]

Here's a daily view of global SST anomalies from NCEP. To mention at least per their site, it incorporates buoys and satellites



http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

Seems pretty neat to me and you can click on different areas for up close view

I would question the SSTs anomalies for the northern latitudes, one example is Hudson Bay when right now is covered in Ice.

[NDG]

Buoys week to week suggest Monday will be +/- 0.5C again

http://3.1m.yt/a3KUNBQ.jpg

Here's a more detailed image.


http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... lg93j7.png

Possibly we keep +0.6C since the 0.7C line is above the equator @ 140W.

NDG what options do you toggle on the TAO site? Or do you simply just click on all the buoys?

For the image above I just click on the "display data" tab from the main ndbc TAO link, it takes a little while to download.
Below is the direct link, it just takes a while to download.

http://tao.ndbc.noaa.gov/refreshed/index.php

[Ntxw]

Here's a daily view of global SST anomalies from NCEP. To mention at least per their site, it incorporates buoys and satellites



http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

Seems pretty neat to me and you can click on different areas for up close view

I would question the SSTs anomalies for the northern latitudes, one example is Hudson Bay when right now is covered in Ice.

Its one of the few sources that attemps at SST's below ice where possible, as it mentions it does not just incorporate satellite data but also ships and other measuring equipment



"Surface temperature is calculated for water where the ice cover exceeds 50%, using salinity climatology in Millero's formula for the freezing point of salt water:
t(S) = -0.0575 S + 0.0017 S3/2 - 0.0002 S2,
with S in psu."

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 6/5/17 that has Nino 3.4 remaining at +0.6C while Nino 1+2 is down to +0.2C.

[Ntxw]

One thing to get from this update was that MAM was 0.4C, assuming it continues or holds steady AMJ may be the first 0.5C on ONI given March was the cooler month.