ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

Here's a daily view of global SST anomalies from NCEP. To mention at least per their site, it incorporates buoys and satellites

http://i63.tinypic.com/2zp8vhc.png

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

Seems pretty neat to me and you can click on different areas for up close view

I would question the SSTs anomalies for the northern latitudes, one example is Hudson Bay when right now is covered in Ice.

Its one of the few sources that attemps at SST's below ice where possible, as it mentions it does not just incorporate satellite data but also ships and other measuring equipment



"Surface temperature is calculated for water where the ice cover exceeds 50%, using salinity climatology in Millero's formula for the freezing point of salt water:
t(S) = -0.0575 S + 0.0017 S3/2 - 0.0002 S2,
with S in psu."

So if it is below the ice then it is not at the surface, last time I checked there are no buoys in Hudson Bay and I doubt that they have ice breakers going through it all the time if at all, I am sorry but it still does not make sense to me.

[Ntxw]

So if it is below the ice then it is not at the surface, last time I checked there are no buoys in Hudson Bay and I doubt that they have ice breakers going through it all the time if at all, I am sorry but it still does not make sense to me.

You'll have to ask them and send an email on their sources. This is from NCEP I can only provide what they show as their data, me and you can only give anecdotal opinions of our preferences whether it makes sense or not as we do not have access to these instruments.

There is a link on the original post to the site if you would like to communicate with them.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

[dexterlabio]

Cool that we're having this kind of debate on what the actual SSTs are...this is like estimating the max sustained winds in a tropical cyclone by satellite estimate/Dvorak analysis versus ground surface observation.

[Ntxw]

Cool that we're having this kind of debate on what the actual SSTs are...this is like estimating the max sustained winds in a tropical cyclone by satellite estimate/Dvorak analysis versus ground surface observation.

It's pretty good constructive debate as we should never assume something is always correct (or incorrect), that's a good example you gave. The oceans are vast area of space and takes a lot of effort to measure temperatures. Satellites in particular can be problematic because between them and the ocean is more water (in the air, vapor and clouds) and particles can all influence. Plus they are unable to look down very far into the ocean at depths. Anomalies are even more problematic because the method to calculate them can vary source by source as our history of keeping measurement is small relative to time. And when you're talking a difference of only half a degree between ENSO strength it's important.

[Kingarabian]

The CPC's CA statistical model continues to have an El Nino by August, and really amps it up in September:

August:


September:

[Kingarabian]

Here's a more detailed image.


http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... lg93j7.png

Possibly we keep +0.6C since the 0.7C line is above the equator @ 140W.

NDG what options do you toggle on the TAO site? Or do you simply just click on all the buoys?

For the image above I just click on the "display data" tab from the main ndbc TAO link, it takes a little while to download.
Below is the direct link, it just takes a while to download.

http://tao.ndbc.noaa.gov/refreshed/index.php

Thanks.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The CPC's CA statistical model continues to have an El Nino by August, and really amps it up in September:

August:


September:

A super El Nino by September when the low-level trade flow across the equatorial Pacific is opposite what we want for even a marginal El Nino. I know a new model to add to my ignore list, lol.

[Blown Away]

Can somebody post the list of dates when past "El Nino's" were officially declared?

[Tornado_1257]

Can somebody post the list of dates when past "El Nino's" were officially declared?

I meant to register in 2014, and I just now found the confirmation email. I missed the 2014 dud and the 2015 super El Nino! Anyway, back on topic.

At least in the past 20 years, I determined that when El Nino or an El Nino Advisory was declared, it happened roughly around these dates

1997-1998: May 1997

2002-2003: Definitively August 2002, but it is hard to tell. Could have been declared in July, but there is no record of a July update in 2002!

2004-2005: September 2004:

2006-2007: Middle of September 2006, they did a rare mid-month update just to delare an El Nino Advisory

2009-2010: July 2009

2014-2016: March 2015

Just for the record, the whole La Nina and El Nino Advisories and watches were not explicitly labeled as such inside the monthly update until February 2009.

[Kingarabian]

More westerlies for the Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 regions.

[LarryWx]

Darwin will at least get close to and may even exceed 1015 mb on any of the next 3 days. It also should exceed 1014 mb over the next 5 days. The climo mean June Darwin SLP when there has been a weak to moderate El Niño to form by fall since 1981 has been only ~1013 mb. Even June's preceding strong Ninos averaged only 1013.5 mb. So, these days of 1014-15 mb would have a Ninoish lean if they were to persist much of June. OTOH, Tahiti has been and is projected to remain near longterm June averages overall for all ENSO types as opposed to being lower than average, which would have meant a stronger Ninoish sign.
It looks to me like the most negative upcoming SOI day will be around 6/11. I'm thinking it would then be near -25.

[Kingarabian]

Darwin will at least get close to and may even exceed 1015 mb on any of the next 3 days. It also should exceed 1014 mb over the next 5 days. The climo mean June Darwin SLP when there has been a weak to moderate El Niño to form by fall since 1981 has been only ~1013 mb. Even June's preceding strong Ninos averaged only 1013.5 mb. So, these days of 1014-15 mb would have a Ninoish lean if they were to persist much of June. OTOH, Tahiti has been and is projected to remain near longterm June averages overall for all ENSO types as opposed to being lower than average, which would have meant a stronger Ninoish sign.
It looks to me like the most negative upcoming SOI day will be around 6/11. I'm thinking it would then be near -25.

Again, good post.
This current SOI drop is pretty serious. There's no backing off from the GFS and the Euro in their runs in keeping high pressures over Darwin.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

NMME has completely abandoned the El Nino in its June update.

Tis dead, Jim.

[LarryWx]

Darwin will at least get close to and may even exceed 1015 mb on any of the next 3 days. It also should exceed 1014 mb over the next 5 days. The climo mean June Darwin SLP when there has been a weak to moderate El Niño to form by fall since 1981 has been only ~1013 mb. Even June's preceding strong Ninos averaged only 1013.5 mb. So, these days of 1014-15 mb would have a Ninoish lean if they were to persist much of June. OTOH, Tahiti has been and is projected to remain near longterm June averages overall for all ENSO types as opposed to being lower than average, which would have meant a stronger Ninoish sign.
It looks to me like the most negative upcoming SOI day will be around 6/11. I'm thinking it would then be near -25.

Again, good post.
This current SOI drop is pretty serious. There's no backing off from the GFS and the Euro in their runs in keeping high pressures over Darwin.

Thanks, King. Yes, indeed. If guidance were to verify well, we could easily see a Darwin June MTD average SLP in the 1013.5 to 1014 range through 6/20, which would be pretty El Ninoish based on 1951-present. Not a guarantee by any means but a pretty good lean that way. IF the full June were to be at least 1014, it would be a pretty strong Niño signal. Actually, there have been only 3 June's since 1951 in the 1014+ category: 1965, 1997, and 2004. (Highest, which was in 1997, was 1014.7 mb). They went on to be a strong Niño, superstrong Niño, and weak Niño, respectively, by autumn.

[weathaguyry]

POAMA model continues to show the idea of a near La Nina. In regards to the SOI drop, I do think it is too little too late, the SOI is essentially the first step in controlling an ENSO event, and it appears that it's been back and forth with negative drops and neutral-positive stretches. I maybe think that a negative SOI stretch may support a warm subsurface West of the International Date Line, which MAY lead down the road to a weak El Nino for November-December, which may cause for a brutal 2014- like winter in the NEUS

[LarryWx]

POAMA model continues to show the idea of a near La Nina. In regards to the SOI drop, I do think it is too little too late, the SOI is essentially the first step in controlling an ENSO event, and it appears that it's been back and forth with negative drops and neutral-positive stretches. I maybe think that a negative SOI stretch may support a warm subsurface West of the International Date Line, which MAY lead down the road to a weak El Nino for November-December, which may cause for a brutal 2014- like winter in the NEUS

Thanks for posting the POAMA. Note that 3.4 will need to start cooling soon for its +0.2 to verify for June.
I agree that having a neutral May doesn't correlate at all with a strong Niño and I've already just about eliminated the chance for a strong even though 2 of them, 1902-3 and 1930-1, actually had a neutral to positive May SOI. However, as you alluded to, weak is a different story. Actually, I still haven't eliminated the chance for moderate either. I took a look at the May SOI's that preceded weak to moderate Nino's and actually found 13 of the 34 wk to moderate Ninos to have a neutral to positive May SOI (5 of them were in the +7 to +14 range):

1986-7, 1979-80, 1976-7, 1968-9, 1963-4, 1939-40, 1925-6, 1923-4, 1918-9, 1904-5, 1884-5, 1880-1, and 1876-7.

(Aside: 5 of these 13 winters were some of the coldest on record in the SE US.)

With June well on the way to having a -SOI, current 3.4 already being borderline weak Niño, and considering the above stats, I wouldn't look at May of 2017 having been neutral SOI as much of an indicator one way or the other.

Monthly SOI's back to late 1800's:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... 89Base.txt

[Kingarabian]

The SSTs have been a completely different story. Despite the easterlies, we're at +0.5C for more than six weeks and ONI continues to rise. Lots of warm anomalies near the subsurface as well to support at least a weak El Nino by ASO.

The reason why this SOI drop is significant, is because it means that the winds will reverse back to the west. So with the SSTs at Nino values, the westerlies will provide a big boost in that continuing.

[weathaguyry]

POAMA model continues to show the idea of a near La Nina. In regards to the SOI drop, I do think it is too little too late, the SOI is essentially the first step in controlling an ENSO event, and it appears that it's been back and forth with negative drops and neutral-positive stretches. I maybe think that a negative SOI stretch may support a warm subsurface West of the International Date Line, which MAY lead down the road to a weak El Nino for November-December, which may cause for a brutal 2014- like winter in the NEUS

Thanks for posting the POAMA. Note that 3.4 will need to start cooling soon for its +0.2 to verify for June.
I agree that having a neutral May doesn't correlate at all with a strong Niño and I've already just about eliminated the chance for a strong even though 2 of them, 1902-3 and 1930-1, actually had a neutral to positive May SOI. However, as you alluded to, weak is a different story. Actually, I still haven't eliminated the chance for moderate either. I took a look at the May SOI's that preceded weak to moderate Nino's and actually found 13 of the 34 wk to moderate Ninos to have a neutral to positive May SOI (5 of them were in the +7 to +14 range):

1986-7, 1979-80, 1976-7, 1968-9, 1963-4, 1939-40, 1925-6, 1923-4, 1918-9, 1904-5, 1884-5, 1880-1, and 1876-7.

(Aside: 5 of these 13 winters were some of the coldest on record in the SE US.)

With June well on the way to having a -SOI, current 3.4 already being borderline weak Niño, and considering the above stats, I wouldn't look at May of 2017 having been neutral SOI as much of an indicator one way or the other.

Monthly SOI's back to late 1800's:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... 89Base.txt

Very interesting information! I guess we should keep an eye on the winds, and the subsurface to see if a WWB develops or if the Warm pool rebounds.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxriskcom/status/872610961210970113

[Kingarabian]

If those models are to verify, then the SSTs will have to tank soon.