NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[ROCK]

What I take from this Euro run is it is stronger than the 12z run and also closer to missing the trough.

well with this sitting in the GOM for 6-7 days anything can happen. Tag it in the am and run the GFDL on it....

[South Texas Storms]

What I take from this Euro run is it is stronger than the 12z run and also closer to missing the trough.

well with this sitting in the GOM for 6-7 days anything can happen. Tag it in the am and run the GFDL on it....

Yeah I even want to see the BAMS too

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not an official forecast.

In the past gfs has tended to overestimate the strength of troughs, so my gut feeling is that the TX solution is more likely.
With hurricane Ivan 04 early model runs had it hitting Tampa but they significantly overestimated the trough strength. Ivan stayed well west of Tampa.

[arp2559]

0z ECMWF hr 180 landfall. Euro shows a big hit and then whole run was full of victory as it crosses florida and deepens significantly to 960mb. ECMWF is the one global that has shown over the years it is capable of displaying what it believes to be the true storm intensity.

[thundercam96]

lol weatherfreak, one of my best friends always wins with the 7-2 offsuit.
I'm just looking at the NAM because it does well with troughs and ridges in the U.S.

yikes 192 hours euro has this down to 978 mb passing jacksonville.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nds192.gif

I Live Outside Of JAX And I'm Saying "What???"

[SETXWXLADY]

Maybe over doing the intensity?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 25N85W AT 21/00Z...BUT THIS
IS NOT EVIDENT ON A 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH INSTEAD SHOWS A
TROUGH FROM NE YUCATAN TO W CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SHOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH OFF THE N COAST OF YUCATAN AND
MOVING INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. BY EARLY SAT...THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW POSITION NEAR 24N90W WITH AN
MSLP AROUND 1005 MB...WITH A SLOW DRIFT N INTO SUN. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW OVER THE WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS AND THE
FACT THAT UPPER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MINIMAL...CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE EASTERN
AND NE PORTIONS. THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND SAT
UNFORTUNATELY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NE GULF BY LATE SUN DRAWING THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT LIKELY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
DEEPENS A NEW LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON...AHEAD OF THE
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH...REACHING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
STRENGTH BY MON NIGHT. THE NOGAPS FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE SHOWS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUN...DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE NE GULF. THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFFLICTING THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE CONTAGIOUS AS THE ECMWF PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN THE LOW IN PLACE
OVER THE NE GULF. THE UKMET MEANWHILE HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING THIS NE TURN IS NOW INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
THE NW GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OF NE FLORIDA IN THE ATLC...AND
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NE GULF...AND
INSTEAD FOLLOWS THE GEFS...ALTHOUGH CONTINUES THE GFS/ECMWF TREND
OF MOVING THE SURFACE FURTHER EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL REACH 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. FORECAST
SEAS ARE LOWER THE MWW3 GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIED TO THE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PRONE GFS... AND SEAS WILL REACH 10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW.

[floridasun78]

do area look weaker today? less storms it dry here this morning in miami

[Hurricane Alexis]

Large circulation just north of the yucatan peninsula

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone still hanging in there over the Yucatan and drifting NW. Now at 18N 91E.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tailgater]

pick a color any color

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Hurricaneman]

Another poster in the Models thread mentioned Hurricane Elena in 1985 type track with this, and that type of scenerio can't be left off the table because if you blend the models together I think something like this is possible if not probable especially if the trough starts to pick it up and gets left behind in the NE gulf

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Waiting patiently for the first visible to see how the swirl is doing. If it's still there I predict an invest in the next couple of hours.

Very hard to see anything in this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Another poster in the Models thread mentioned Hurricane Elena in 1985 type track with this, and that type of scenerio can't be left off the table because if you blend the models together I think something like this is possible if not probable especially if the trough starts to pick it up and gets left behind in the NE gulf

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Anything is possible with this developing situation. The event which occured with Elena in '85 is definitely not out of the realm of possibilty for sure.

I'll just simply state the obvious and say everyone be on the alert the next several days all throughout the Gulf region as an hybrid or tropical entity will landfall somewhere

[tolakram]

Let's do the 48 hour model challenge this morning.

00z runs, 48 hours, saved images.

[tolakram]

And now the 120 hour plots of the 00z models. Saved.

[NDG]

0z models are no help, they remain all over the place, with the GFS going back to a weaker, broader storm that it wants to split in two once again. It most be convective feedback problems.
The Euro has once again slowed down its forecast of a track towards the FL Peninsula, putting in doubt its solution of a right turn.
One thing for sure is that we will see a developing tropical storm during the weekend, is a mess right now so it will take its sweet ole time to get organized, but is not like something is going to kick it out of the way any time soon.
I think the NHC has not declared this an Invest yet because they are waiting to see for things to get in place before running the tropical models. otherwise we could get false solutions back from the models. So is best to go with the current runs of the global models through their 48-72hr forecast.
The lowest sfc pressures this morning are around the Yucatan Peninsula, where the models show that a larger more dominant surface pressure will form just north over the south central GOM.
Strongest surface vorticity is over the SE GOM while the strongest mid level vorticity is over the Yucatan Peninsula.

[tolakram]

I agree. I think the 48 hour mark is clear. We'll have a deepening low pressure system somewhere n/nw of the YP. Closed low? Really not sure at this point, though I still like the Canadian under 72 hours which shows a pretty well defined low.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

If I recall,this thread is the longest pre invest one ever with almost 1000 replies,over 42 pages and 30,000 views. And it will keep going and going until there is the invest.

[vaffie]

A ship (21.90N -85.60W) 100 nm east of the center of circulation 2 hours ago reported a pressure of 1009 mb and a sustained WSW (240 degrees) wind of 19 knots and 8 feet waves. Otherwise data in the southern Gulf of Mexico are all finding sustained winds of 15-20 knots now, it seems, though none of them are within 100 miles of the center. Another ship report, for instance, slightly further SE of the center, but still within 150 nm, about 5 hours ago reported a pressure of 1009.3 and sustained 25 knot winds. I think we'll have our invest 96L momentarily.

[LarryWx]

0z ECMWF hr 180 landfall. Euro shows a big hit and then whole run was full of victory as it crosses florida and deepens significantly to 960mb. ECMWF is the one global that has shown over the years it is capable of displaying what it believes to be the true storm intensity.

Beware the Euro high resolution bias of a tendency of sig. overstrengthening Atlantic basin tropical cyclones near these latitudes. It has been really bad at times over the last two years. Anyone remember the tropical storm Fiona fiasco? The high resolution Euro had a good number of runs with the lowest SLP in the low 900's of mb's! The lowest it ever got was only down to 997 mb's! There have been a number of others since 2010 that were overdeveloped by the high resolution Euro. I'm not saying it can't end up verifying pretty closely. However, I certainly wouldn't put my money on it.