2015 Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro still sees a hurricane that area in the BOC will have to be watched by the weekend

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[Hurricaneman]

Gfs 18z still had a disturbance just not strong

Seems to be slowly coming around to the Euro solution and if that continues we could have a tropical storm next week in the BOC heading north to NNE

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

IF Invest 92L becomes Henri than this IF it were to develop at all would become Ida and we all know how many "I" storms have caused problems.

[Steve]

So it's way too early to be up all night getting anxious. I'm casually paying attention. GFS is about to day 8 and at 850mb it looks like that wave in the Caribbean moves out to the west gulf innocuous but maybe that's as far as the energy gets??? Some type of juice/energy comes by way of the Pacific possibly intersecting with that wave and a lower level vortex spins up down in the BoC along the coast. It basically moves North and ends up "landfalling" in what appears to be Jefferson or Orange Counties, Texas. It still doesn't do much with it but you see a lot of precip on the SW LA coast - Cameron, Vermillion Parishes. Again it's something interesting to watch for this weekend but nothing to freak on. IMHO it's too far out for the GFS to hone into anything meaningful yet. But it is showing lowering of the surface pressures in the extreme SW Gulf. That was sure to happen at some point with migrating patterns as we transition to Fall.

Edit to say thru day 11, Lake Charles/Sulphur picks up 10-15" with a fairly wide swath from there to Lafayette getting 5-10". It's probably bs but watch out for snakes and alligators down that way if it's onto anything.

[chaser1]

EURO so far showing continuity. 120 hour 0Z forecast showing a 1006mb in the BOC. Waiting to see the 144 hr. - 240 hour, but thus far remaining bullish on W. Gulf development. By the way, CMC has also remained pretty consistent in a Gulf development during the same time frame as well.

[chaser1]

168 hour showing "status quo", but now is where it'll get a bit more interesting.

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[chaser1]

192 hour forecast, EURO still carrying a W. Gulf low, but trending weaker now and only a 1008 at 192 hours out.

[chaser1]

216 hour shows only slightly stronger and moving closer to the N. Texas coastline. Then, 240 hr. either moves the 1004mb low inland or just weakens it altogether. Our famed EURO has been spending too much time sitting at the table with his "Crazy Uncle" (CMC model)

[stormlover2013]

No euro and gfs has been consistent euro just doesn't show a storm blowing up like it has been but euro has been showing now now since last Friday and gfs run this time shows tons of moisture/disturbance again

[SETXWXLADY]

I've noticed the Euro had been showing something similar to this latest run before it showed the deepening system too. Maybe this explains the change in this run? Maybe. Just trying to figure it out like y'all.

From WPC Extended Discussion...

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS...
THE 'SLOWER' SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTH---WITH
THE COLD FRONT NOW TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE
AND WESTERN GULF COAST. THE RESPONSE IS TO DRIVE LESS TROUGHING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF...AND A SLIGHTLY QUICKER 'REBOUND' OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG/SOUTH OF 30N. AND THE MEANS DO A NICE JOB
OF ILLUSTRATING THIS TREND ON DAY 4...WHEN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF 90W LONGITUDE WILL ALLOW THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF TO 'OPEN UP' SOME AND PERHAPS A DAY OR SO SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

[NDG]

Bingo! And the latest 0z Euro goes more in line with the GFS, weaker and further west.

[NDG]

Gfs 18z still had a disturbance just not strong

Seems to be slowly coming around to the Euro solution and if that continues we could have a tropical storm next week in the BOC heading north to NNE

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

No mount we could have a weak tropical storm form in the BOC, at least a chance, but my point is that I have been questioning the strength the Euro briought it up to at 12z, the Euro has been very bullish most times than not with systems in its medium to long range forecast in areas where windshear has been dominant.

[Dean4Storms]

00z ECM was much weaker with the Low it develops and just moves it northward to the TX Coast and then leaves it there for about 5 days, flooding potential for Houston area with ECM showing accum over 10 days upward of 29 inches just offshore!

Still needs to be watched, how many times have we seen a model have the right solution early on only to lose it and then walla???

[stormlover2013]

No model is good on strength, euro show it weak last week but any disturbance that forms in the gulf is scary because they seem to blow up quick

[Steve]

There's not much in the models this morning. 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF hint at something coming out of the BoC but it doesn't look like much outside of rainfall. GFS does want to hit GA/N FL at the end of the 360 hour run. It was doing that yesterday near the NC Coast, but it's a little farther south today. CMC spins up the remnants of Grace just before hitting EC Florida with a big high building over top. It also simultaneously spins something up at in the BoC at the end of the run. It's probably just being the CMC.

[Alyono]

weaker EC because there is a strong EPAC cane. As I said, EPAC development is nearly certain. Also, the EC control yesterday did NOT have a strong TC. That led me to believe there were convective feedback issues with the operational due to its higher resolution

[Stormcenter]

I guess we just wait and see.

weaker EC because there is a strong EPAC cane. As I said, EPAC development is nearly certain. Also, the EC control yesterday did NOT have a strong TC. That led me to believe there were convective feedback issues with the operational due to its higher resolution

[Steve]

Good call.

12z GFS is running now up to 150 hours. It's spinning up a vortex at 850mb right along the Mexican Coast between Tuxpan and Tampico. It doesn't show up much on the regular MSLP run other than as a surge for now. Waiting to see if it draws in some closed isobars and then where it heads. GFS so far has had it going north toward Jefferson/Orange Counties with most of the heaviest precipitation hitting SW LA.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has NADA through 10 days as far as the BOC/WGOM development.

[Steve]

Yeah, what it looks like at 850 is that ridging just pushes whatever tries to spin up westward though return flow brings a bunch of rain into the northern Gulf but less than the last few runs. Also, it dropped the low moving toward the GA/FL coast at the end of the run. In other words, not much on the GFS.