2018 EPAC Season

[CyclonicFury]

GFS has been consistent with making this a cat 5.

It also did the same thing with Fabio, and since EPAC Category 5's are quite rare to begin with, I doubt this will reach C5.

[cycloneye]

FV3 is closer to Baja.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has been consistent with making this a cat 5.

It also did the same thing with Fabio, and since EPAC Category 5's are quite rare to begin with, I doubt this will reach C5.

This. If we got similar runs from the ECMWF I'd re-consider by a Cat 5 in the EPAC is hard to pull off even if Cat 3/4 in the basin is quite easy and GFS has been having issues lately. A major is possible, however.

[cycloneye]

Yeah,Baja better watch this.00z Euro.

[cycloneye]

Surprised NHC didn't mentioned it at 5 AM PDT TWO.

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z runs of both GFS and ECMWF are away from Baja but Euro is closer.Both have strong cane as Euro is stronger than 00z run while GFS has been consistent with a cat 4 or 5.

[gatorcane]

Looks like we may have a major hurricane here in the EPAC when all is said and done

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1023638971576987649

[storminabox]

After Fabio, I’m not sure I trust these models.

[cycloneye]

FV3 has a hit to Baja.

[Kingarabian]

It's now in range of the UKMET forecast hours and it too has this. Very strong likelihood we will see a new storm form by this weekend.

[cycloneye]

At least 18z GFS is not insane with the lowest pressure that in past runs was sometimes below 900 mbs. In this run is only down to 949 mbs.

[Kazmit]

It gets down to 949 mbars. Still a solid major, but nothing close to what it was showing before.

[CyclonicFury]

It does look likely that we could see a strong TC form over the eastern Pacific not far from the Mexican coast in about 5-8 days. However, it is a bit too soon to accurately predict how strong it will get. If rapid intensification occurs, we could easily see a Category 4, but it's also possible we could see a situation similar to Fabio where a system struggles to build a core.

[cycloneye]

It does look likely that we could see a strong TC form over the eastern Pacific not far from the Mexican coast in about 5-8 days. However, it is a bit too soon to accurately predict how strong it will get. If rapid intensification occurs, we could easily see a Category 4, but it's also possible we could see a situation similar to Fabio where a system struggles to build a core.

Yes,after Fabio I will not be too enthusiastic looking at the models but looking in real time what is going on.

[Yellow Evan]

It does look likely that we could see a strong TC form over the eastern Pacific not far from the Mexican coast in about 5-8 days. However, it is a bit too soon to accurately predict how strong it will get. If rapid intensification occurs, we could easily see a Category 4, but it's also possible we could see a situation similar to Fabio where a system struggles to build a core.

To be fair if you give Fabio another 6-12 hours, I think it easily becomes a major. It just didn't have much time.

[Kingarabian]

It does look likely that we could see a strong TC form over the eastern Pacific not far from the Mexican coast in about 5-8 days. However, it is a bit too soon to accurately predict how strong it will get. If rapid intensification occurs, we could easily see a Category 4, but it's also possible we could see a situation similar to Fabio where a system struggles to build a core.

To be fair if you give Fabio another 6-12 hours, I think it easily becomes a major. It just didn't have much time.

It'll likely (It definitely should) be upgraded to a major in the offseason as it attained T5.5 a number of times but just couldn't sustain it.

[cycloneye]

Up to 0/30

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Incredible.

GFS backing off development now. Absolutely despicable.