2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Dylan]

While we haven't seen a major hurricane in the month of June in many decades, we have seen a sub 950mb hurricane in the Gulf in June relatively recently: Hurricane Alex in 2010.

True.

However you must account for the fact that Alex was in the very end of June, and actually dissipated in early July. Even that minuscule difference of 2-3 weeks helps a lot with SST's and overall environmental conditions. Additionally, the UKMET, which everyone praised for doing so well with Alberto, doesn't even develop this disturbance just like the European.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While we haven't seen a major hurricane in the month of June in many decades, we have seen a sub 950mb hurricane in the Gulf in June relatively recently: Hurricane Alex in 2010.

True.

However you must account for the fact that Alex was in the very end of June, and actually dissipated in early July. Even that minuscule difference of 2-3 weeks helps a lot with SST's and overall environmental conditions. Additionally, the UKMET, which everyone praised for doing so well with Alberto, doesn't even develop this disturbance just like the European.

I agree, I'm just saying there's relatively recent precedence.

[Aric Dunn]

Well all I can say is after reading the last 2 pages.. is that we will know in 24hours which model camp wins. convection should begin to build quite a bit later today and tonight which are the beginnings.

[Aric Dunn]

and on a side note. at least for the GFS's sake.. the monsoon trough has now migrated north into the sw carrib.. so the euro is looking less likely.. but we still need a tropical wave or some mechanism to get convection going. next tropical wave is 24 hours away or so..

[Ian2401]

Well all I can say is after reading the last 2 pages.. is that we will know in 24hours which model camp wins. convection should begin to build quite a bit later today and tonight which are the beginnings.

Where in the Western Caribbean should we be watching for convection to build?

[ROCK]

NGEM stronger than its last run. Still has it sees it whatever. Hard not to cave to EURO thou. The next run after lunch should be interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Well all I can say is after reading the last 2 pages.. is that we will know in 24hours which model camp wins. convection should begin to build quite a bit later today and tonight which are the beginnings.

Where in the Western Caribbean should we be watching for convection to build?

SW

[Ntxw]

Well all I can say is after reading the last 2 pages.. is that we will know in 24hours which model camp wins. convection should begin to build quite a bit later today and tonight which are the beginnings.

Where in the Western Caribbean should we be watching for convection to build?

Generally most (even the Euro) increase convection in the Southwest Caribbean and generally moves it into the Gulf. Some guidance (such as the Euro) keeps elevated convection through Central America-Western Gulf and BOC. GFS consolidates things much more into a tropical system on the eastern end of this moisture plume while others keep it messy too far west. So we'll see convection firing soon on both sides of Central America and watch where consolidation happens if any.

[Aric Dunn]

Well all I can say is after reading the last 2 pages.. is that we will know in 24hours which model camp wins. convection should begin to build quite a bit later today and tonight which are the beginnings.

Where in the Western Caribbean should we be watching for convection to build?

Generally most (even the Euro) increase convection in the Southwest Caribbean and generally moves it into the Gulf. Some guidance (such as the Euro) keeps elevated convection through Central America-Western Gulf and BOC. GFS consolidates things much more into a tropical system on the eastern end of this moisture plume while others keep it messy too far west. So we'll see convection firing soon on both sides of Central America and watch where consolidation happens if any.

The key thing and I have mentioned it a few times. is watch for energy coming off of columbia the models that do develop something have either a tropical wave or something moving east to west off of columbia and that combined with the monsoon trough creates a large expansive area of convection ( more so than the Euro which is lacking this feature) and off it goes..

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
The experimental FV3GFS does not suffer from the hurricane false alarm problem as acutely as the operational GFS. Comparison shows the 850 hPa wind field. But, the FV3 loses "Bud" quickly in East Pac

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1005459603105214464




@TropicalTidbits
While an upper trough may generate a surface trough near Central America next week, the Day 6-7 GFS in the Gulf of Mexico is not worth paying attention to, unless more reliable guidance moves that direction over the next few days.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1005230639841505281

[Aric Dunn]

@RyanMaue
The experimental FV3GFS does not suffer from the hurricane false alarm problem as acutely as the operational GFS. Comparison shows the 850 hPa wind field. But, the FV3 loses "Bud" quickly in East Pac

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1005459603105214464




@TropicalTidbits
While an upper trough may generate a surface trough near Central America next week, the Day 6-7 GFS in the Gulf of Mexico is not worth paying attention to, unless more reliable guidance moves that direction over the next few days.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1005230639841505281

it has not lost bud at all in the east pac . not sure what he was looking at.. of course it is weaker than the gfs. no really thinks we will see a cat 4 in the gulf.

oh wait bud.. not berl lol nevermind.. though he was saying the carrib system moves into the east pac.. miss read that lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60906&fh=9

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the 12z ICON. it again has a fairly well defined 500mb circulation but it is well removed to the NE of the surface feature indicating shear. that and the low level feature is mostly over land this run. which is why so far ICON is weaker.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Replying to @mattlanza @JimCantore and 3 others
A well known bias for early and late in the year. Hopefully will be corrected in next version of model

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1005475189243727872

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FV3 doesn't suffer from a hurricane "false alarm"? It blew up Alberto into a major hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON 12z taking a GFS 06 track and intensifying..

strongest and most organized ICON has been as of yet

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=108

[Aric Dunn]

also 12z GFS is back over land most of the time. so weaker so far.

[Aric Dunn]

and 12z cmc still agressive early on. TS in 48 hours.

[wxman22]

12z GFS ,ICON, and CMC are still onboard fwiw. the 12z GFS looks similar as far as the storms track to what it showed on yesterday's 12z run.

[Haris]

12z gefs trended W matching op. gfs as far as track is concerned , IMO

[stormreader]

12z GFS ,ICON, and CMC are still onboard fwiw. the 12z GFS looks similar as far as the storms track to what it showed on yesterday's 12z run.

Well, I’ve often been critical of GFS forecasting, but that is usually after storm development. But it has a solid record in forecasting tropical storm genesis. It’s persistence in developing a gulf system is becoming concerning. Can deal with intensity later. Although I do think a cat 1-2 is reasonable. In any case, if I had to make a call on named system in central GOM or not for weekend, I would have to go with the affirmative (even with absolutely nothing from the Euro).