2021 EPAC Season

[Astromanía]

https://i.imgur.com/Box0NDi.png

https://i.imgur.com/b1V7Ihn.png

12z GFS still showing two potent hurricanes one that is the 0/50.

What's that hurricane in the Atlantic coming towards me?

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/Box0NDi.png

https://i.imgur.com/b1V7Ihn.png

12z GFS still showing two potent hurricanes one that is the 0/50.

What's that hurricane in the Atlantic coming towards me?

Another phantom (at least for now) tropical cyclone.

[Astromanía]

Models are very bullish with the future system, probably our next major of the season

[Astromanía]

In regards to quality, this next upcoming burst of activity might give us better eye candy. The predicted synoptic pattern favors quick moving systems, that track over different areas in the EPAC and are also well spaced out. Big reason why the trio of Hilda, Ignacio, and Jimena sucked is because they all waited to develop until they were 300-500 miles or less away from each other.

Yes, Hilda looked like it was going to be a major but the distance between the two systems in both directions prevented that to happen

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF makes the 10/70 a long tracker.

[Kingarabian]

For the next two weeks, looks like the 12z model consensus is backing off on Olaf. Barely show Nora as well.

[Kingarabian]

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located around 1150 miles
southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain conducive for some slow
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Kino

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is forming a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle portions of next week.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph,
parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS all the way up to Nora.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has 2 more hurricanes behind Kevin.

[Kingarabian]

Lots of strong members on the EPS:

[Yellow Evan]

Activity should persist through August 16-17, then zzzzzzz.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS only has one more system after Kevin through 16 days. 00z Euro and CMC have two more systems within 10 days.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS long range shows two weak areas that would've spun up to be Marty and Nora in past runs.


12z Euro and CMC pretty similar depictions, trying to have a system after 93E:

[Yellow Evan]

The thing is post-93E the globals have backed off the intensity as they typically do once the MJO signal leaves. We may not see Marty until early to mid September.

[Kingarabian]

The thing is post-93E the globals have backed off the intensity as they typically do once the MJO signal leaves. We may not see Marty until early to mid September.

I think there's a very good chance we see Marty just because there's strong ensemble support from all models. I have doubts we'll see Nora and Olaf though. The energy responsible for those looks to remain in the WGOM or WCaribbean.

[storminabox]

This “active period” is continuing to significantly underperform from an intensity standpoint. Just another reason why the ATL should be favored later this month.

[hurricanes1234]

This “active period” is continuing to significantly underperform from an intensity standpoint. Just another reason why the ATL should be favored later this month.

Agreed, this should be renamed the 2021 Pacific swirl season.

[Yellow Evan]

The vertical instability issues of this basin rn rival that of 2013.