2021 EPAC Season

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Astromanía
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#821 Postby Astromanía » Sat Aug 07, 2021 1:45 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Box0NDi.png

https://i.imgur.com/b1V7Ihn.png

12z GFS still showing two potent hurricanes one that is the 0/50.

What's that hurricane in the Atlantic coming towards me?
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#822 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 07, 2021 1:49 pm

Astromanía wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Box0NDi.png

https://i.imgur.com/b1V7Ihn.png

12z GFS still showing two potent hurricanes one that is the 0/50.

What's that hurricane in the Atlantic coming towards me?


Another phantom (at least for now) tropical cyclone.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#823 Postby Astromanía » Sat Aug 07, 2021 1:56 pm

Models are very bullish with the future system, probably our next major of the season
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#824 Postby Astromanía » Sat Aug 07, 2021 1:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:In regards to quality, this next upcoming burst of activity might give us better eye candy. The predicted synoptic pattern favors quick moving systems, that track over different areas in the EPAC and are also well spaced out. Big reason why the trio of Hilda, Ignacio, and Jimena sucked is because they all waited to develop until they were 300-500 miles or less away from each other.

Yes, Hilda looked like it was going to be a major but the distance between the two systems in both directions prevented that to happen
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#825 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 07, 2021 2:11 pm

Image

12z ECMWF makes the 10/70 a long tracker.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#826 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:04 pm

For the next two weeks, looks like the 12z model consensus is backing off on Olaf. Barely show Nora as well.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#827 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:12 pm

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located around 1150 miles
southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain conducive for some slow
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Kino
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#828 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 07, 2021 6:27 pm

A broad area of low pressure is forming a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle portions of next week.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph,
parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#829 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 07, 2021 6:29 pm

18z GFS all the way up to Nora.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#830 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 07, 2021 6:48 pm

Image

Image

18z GFS has 2 more hurricanes behind Kevin.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#831 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:33 pm

Lots of strong members on the EPS:
Image
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#832 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:54 pm

Image

Activity should persist through August 16-17, then zzzzzzz.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#833 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 08, 2021 2:35 am

00z GFS only has one more system after Kevin through 16 days. 00z Euro and CMC have two more systems within 10 days.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#834 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:06 am

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#835 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 08, 2021 3:56 pm

12z GFS long range shows two weak areas that would've spun up to be Marty and Nora in past runs.
Image

12z Euro and CMC pretty similar depictions, trying to have a system after 93E:
Image
Image
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#836 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 08, 2021 6:30 pm

The thing is post-93E the globals have backed off the intensity as they typically do once the MJO signal leaves. We may not see Marty until early to mid September.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#837 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 08, 2021 6:43 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:The thing is post-93E the globals have backed off the intensity as they typically do once the MJO signal leaves. We may not see Marty until early to mid September.


I think there's a very good chance we see Marty just because there's strong ensemble support from all models. I have doubts we'll see Nora and Olaf though. The energy responsible for those looks to remain in the WGOM or WCaribbean.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#838 Postby storminabox » Mon Aug 09, 2021 4:50 pm

This “active period” is continuing to significantly underperform from an intensity standpoint. Just another reason why the ATL should be favored later this month.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#839 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 09, 2021 4:55 pm

storminabox wrote:This “active period” is continuing to significantly underperform from an intensity standpoint. Just another reason why the ATL should be favored later this month.


Agreed, this should be renamed the 2021 Pacific swirl season. :lol:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#840 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:04 pm

The vertical instability issues of this basin rn rival that of 2013.
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