TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[chrisnnavarre]

This is more and more starting to look like bad news for the Pensacola Area....

If it's going due north while it' s south and just west of us in about four to five days then I guess we'd better batten down the hatches.

AGAIN....

I knew I shouldn't have taken down those boards.... Sunlight, during Hurrican Season, I told my wife we didn't need any sunlight.

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks for the compliment, it is me JOsh Linker from Bay NEws 9. As far as well written discussions, i urge everyone to read NEXRAD's posts in the promet forum. He (jay) is quite the writer. I am often way to busy to put something detailed together in writing. Normally Sunday evenings I am spent after working mornings all weekend, but I got a good nap today after the early NFL games.

Great recommendation.....

Jay's write-ups are the best around. They are just so long and detailed though, that I'm sure many don't take the time to read it and miss many of the insightful details that he has.

Take the advice boys and girls and read NEXRAD's discussion from beginning to end...

Scott

[floridahurricaneguy]

This is more and more starting to look like bad news for the Pensacola Area....

If it's going due north while it' s south and just west of us in about four to five days then I guess we'd better batten down the hatches.

AGAIN....

I knew I shouldn't have taken down those boards.... Sunlight, during Hurrican Season, I told my wife we didn't need any sunlight.

I think your ok. The GFS shows the trough still there pulling it in west florida. Even GFDL does at of the period. Trough will be to strong for it to go just north in my opinion.

Matt

[Bgator]

BAMM model at 8PM is whacked, a continuous west path seems unlikely, but possible... I think models are not picking up on things!IMHO!

[vaffie]

Good point... very early in the game, but the GFDL seems to suggest that the next trough will miss the storm, and send it west...

Of course, this is way early, and a big swing from this morning, so it could easily swing back...

I agree that it could swing back, but I would put the chance of a significant rightward swing at less than 50%, because the models now have a much better handle than they did due to the recon data that's come in--that is what has probably affected it's short-term motion forecast and thus its longterm motion forecast is also affected, and we're further ahead in time now, and secondly, the motion has already been faster and less "drifting" than it was previously due to the northward jog and the greater proximity to the high that is pushing it west. The farther west it ends up, the faster it's westward component will be--because the high is centered over the western Gulf and the front will be over the eastern Gulf--so it could escape from the front and move quickly westward So, on the contrary, I expect the GFS to move westward as well, if it becomes clear that the front will miss it--besides, the GFS often has a bias towards fronts being stronger and further south than they actually end up being and thus turning storms north and east in the long run, whereas the GFDL, which is designed for forecasting hurricane motion, is less biased. I still think that the west Florida people should pay attention because even if it goes west, it could still turn eastnortheast or northeast by a front--but for it to be pulled eastnortheast by a front would create a lot of shear and weakening, so landfall probabilities have shifted in my opinion for the time being to "Pensacola to Galveston". I'm leaning more towards Pensacola because of the time of the year we're in and because the fronts, though not strong, are coming through fairly regularly, but even places like Galveston and Lake Charles should pay attention, especially if it moves faster and more westward than predicted--that would allow it to just miss the first front, and then move west or northwest unusually fast with the building high to its north just in time to start heading north with the coming of the second front--it's a long shot, but the tropics don't always do what you think they will. I'm even surprised I'm watching it as a threat to my area, but experience tells me to expect the unexpected.

[Ivanhater]

This is more and more starting to look like bad news for the Pensacola Area....

If it's going due north while it' s south and just west of us in about four to five days then I guess we'd better batten down the hatches.

AGAIN....

I knew I shouldn't have taken down those boards.... Sunlight, during Hurrican Season, I told my wife we didn't need any sunlight.

Lol, no sunlight has become the norm around here

[WindRunner]

00Z models

736
WHXX01 KWBC 170036
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOU (AL242005) ON 20051017 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051017 0000 051017 1200 051018 0000 051018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 79.6W 17.7N 80.6W 17.7N 81.8W 17.8N 83.2W
BAMM 17.6N 79.6W 17.8N 80.7W 17.8N 82.0W 17.8N 83.4W
A98E 17.6N 79.6W 17.6N 80.1W 17.8N 81.0W 18.4N 82.1W
LBAR 17.6N 79.6W 17.9N 80.5W 18.7N 81.7W 19.7N 82.9W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051019 0000 051020 0000 051021 0000 051022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 84.6W 17.8N 87.0W 17.6N 88.9W 17.3N 90.3W
BAMM 17.7N 84.8W 17.6N 86.9W 17.7N 88.1W 18.2N 88.8W
A98E 19.4N 83.3W 21.7N 85.8W 24.0N 87.6W 27.8N 87.2W
LBAR 20.8N 83.9W 23.5N 83.3W 26.7N 80.8W 30.8N 76.9W
SHIP 59KTS 71KTS 77KTS 71KTS
DSHP 59KTS 71KTS 77KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 78.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

So according to the guidance another day goes by and no Wilma yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The ship is slowly showing a weaker storm. If recon doe's not find this a tropical storm tomarrow. I'm going to quastion if this can be any more then a strong cat1 or maybe a cat2.

[mahicks]

BAMM model at 8PM is whacked, a continuous west path seems unlikely, but possible... I think models are not picking up on things!IMHO!

I think that's because the BAM models are not dynamic and will not account for the troughs??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

BAMM model at 8PM is whacked, a continuous west path seems unlikely, but possible... I think models are not picking up on things!IMHO!

I think that's because the BAM models are not dynamic and will not account for the troughs??

Yup.

BAMD -- deep layer Beta Advection Model. Good for strong storms in the lower tropics (south of 20N latitude where steering currents remain constant). It doesn't emply much, if any, physics to predict changes in steering currents. Because of that, it shoudl not be used where fronts/trofs highs/lows move on by (north of 20N latitude. Never use it in the Gulf or western Atlantic.

[chrisnnavarre]

vaffie wrote

"I still think that the west Florida people should pay attention because even if it goes west, it could still turn eastnortheast or northeast by a front--but for it to be pulled eastnortheast by a front would create a lot of shear and weakening, so landfall probabilities have shifted in my opinion for the time being to "Pensacola to Galveston". I'm leaning more towards Pensacola because of the time of the year we're in and because the fronts, though not strong, are coming through fairly regularly,"

My best friend is expected to fly in from Bufallo. He's a Navy CO at the Reserve Center there and this is the first time he's bringing his new girlfriend down. We were really looking forward to the visit and the weather has gotten so nice here.

O.K. that's all for now... I have to go throw up...

[Ivanhater]

yep, this weekend was the last weekend for lifeguards to be on pensacola beach....not good if there is a storm in the gulf this week

[wxman57]

Just junk models. BAMs are worthless in a dynamic environment like north of 20N latitude. LBAR is always worthless no matter when/where. A98E is simple climo.

One thing is certain -- the dynamic models like the GFS, GFDL, UKMET, ECMWF will be jumping all over the next few days. Until TD 24/Wilma actually starts to move in some direction, I wouldn't get too concerned with any projected landfall point. Could go inland anywhere from Central America to across Cuba to the southern Bahamas. That doesn't imply a NW movement toward the NW Gulf, however. Just two possible courses - SW or NE.

00Z models

736
WHXX01 KWBC 170036
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOU (AL242005) ON 20051017 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051017 0000 051017 1200 051018 0000 051018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 79.6W 17.7N 80.6W 17.7N 81.8W 17.8N 83.2W
BAMM 17.6N 79.6W 17.8N 80.7W 17.8N 82.0W 17.8N 83.4W
A98E 17.6N 79.6W 17.6N 80.1W 17.8N 81.0W 18.4N 82.1W
LBAR 17.6N 79.6W 17.9N 80.5W 18.7N 81.7W 19.7N 82.9W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051019 0000 051020 0000 051021 0000 051022 000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 84.6W 17.8N 87.0W 17.6N 88.9W 17.3N 90.3W
BAMM 17.7N 84.8W 17.6N 86.9W 17.7N 88.1W 18.2N 88.8W
A98E 19.4N 83.3W 21.7N 85.8W 24.0N 87.6W 27.8N 87.2W
LBAR 20.8N 83.9W 23.5N 83.3W 26.7N 80.8W 30.8N 76.9W
SHIP 59KTS 71KTS 77KTS 71KTS
DSHP 59KTS 71KTS 77KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 78.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Anywhere from Pensacola to Key West NEEDS to monitor
this system closely. Uncertainties are high right now...

It's been a rough couple of years 2004-2005, talk about an
active cycle

[Weatherfreak14]

I still think for some reason that This will be in the zone to port charollite to aplapachacola. I think that with the trough is expected to come down we could see a wide turn to the NE and ENE in 5-7 days IMO

[wxman57]

Good point... very early in the game, but the GFDL seems to suggest that the next trough will miss the storm, and send it west...

Of course, this is way early, and a big swing from this morning, so it could easily swing back...

I agree that it could swing back, but I would put the chance of a significant rightward swing at less than 50%, because the models now have a much better handle than they did due to the recon data that's come in--that is what has probably affected it's short-term motion forecast and thus its longterm motion forecast is also affected, and we're further ahead in time now, and secondly, the motion has already been faster and less "drifting" than it was previously due to the northward jog and the greater proximity to the high that is pushing it west. The farther west it ends up, the faster it's westward component will be--because the high is centered over the western Gulf and the front will be over the eastern Gulf--so it could escape from the front and move quickly westward So, on the contrary, I expect the GFS to move westward as well, if it becomes clear that the front will miss it--besides, the GFS often has a bias towards fronts being stronger and further south than they actually end up being and thus turning storms north and east in the long run, whereas the GFDL, which is designed for forecasting hurricane motion, is less biased. I still think that the west Florida people should pay attention because even if it goes west, it could still turn eastnortheast or northeast by a front--but for it to be pulled eastnortheast by a front would create a lot of shear and weakening, so landfall probabilities have shifted in my opinion for the time being to "Pensacola to Galveston". I'm leaning more towards Pensacola because of the time of the year we're in and because the fronts, though not strong, are coming through fairly regularly, but even places like Galveston and Lake Charles should pay attention, especially if it moves faster and more westward than predicted--that would allow it to just miss the first front, and then move west or northwest unusually fast with the building high to its north just in time to start heading north with the coming of the second front--it's a long shot, but the tropics don't always do what you think they will. I'm even surprised I'm watching it as a threat to my area, but experience tells me to expect the unexpected.

Might check the GFS 500 mb prog for 168 hours. See the deep trof across the mid Gulf coast and strong W-NW flow moving across the northern Gulf? That would not allow a northward movement toward Pensacola. It signals a sharp NE turn should the storm enter the Gulf late this week.

<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_168s.gif">

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I know its worth nothing but here are the T numbers...

16/2345 UTC 17.4N 79.4W T2.5/2.5 24

[hicksta]

With the westerlies coming into the gulf soon, almost impossible for Texas

[wxman57]

I still think for some reason that This will be in the zone to port charollite to aplapachacola. I think that with the trough is expected to come down we could see a wide turn to the NE and ENE in 5-7 days IMO

Sounds good to me, but I wouldn't rule out a track across Cuba south of Florida and across the Bahamas.