2015 Global model runs discussion

[emeraldislenc]

If you look at the satellite it is hard to believe it is September 9th. Looks very quite.

[stormlover2013]

gatorcane it as tons of tropical moisture on this run, wind won't be a factor it will be all the rain

[tailgater]

You want action, then the CMC delivers!

[LarryWx]

Just to prevent possible confusion by some of the readers, that low just off of LA at 192 hours on the 12Z CMC is the remnant low from Grace. It heads WNW from there to the LA/TX border area. The one SE of FL is a totally different entity trailing well behind it. It never quite makes it to FL due to the high to the north weakening.

[windnrain]

Ok... that CMC is ridiculous. That's like 8 storms in one map.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks for the explanation !

[tolakram]

1005mb low at 96 hours so the 12Z still has something.

[Alyono]

EC facepalm

the EPAC system is totally missing

[Stormcenter]

I think something will spin up next week in the GOM. IMO

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF at 192 hours, heading NNW

[Alyono]

BS FLAG

[stormlover2013]

alyono man this is like the 7th straight day euro has been showing this, I mean it might not happen but come on man EURO is a good model its stiffing something out there

[gatorcane]

Wow 972MB at 216 hours heading NE:

[srainhoutx]

alyono man this is like the 7th straight day euro has been showing this, I mean it might not happen but come on man EURO is a good model its stiffing something out there

To be fair, the GFS very long range was 'sniffing' out the potential since the end of August in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf during this timeframe.

[Hammy]

Euro generally isn't wrong with development within four days, but I'm not buying the intensity at all, especially given how poorly it's done with the shear so far. The >120 hour can probably be tossed.

To be fair, the GFS very long range was 'sniffing' out the potential since the end of August in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf during this timeframe.

Ironic that now that the Euro is showing something, the GFS isn't. Whether storms form or not the two don't ever seem to agree.

[tolakram]

Where did the EPAC system go? Why trust a run that shows a storm in the gulf when it completely and totally drops one in the EPAC? I think the BS flag is correct, we need more runs. I believe the gulf will be stormy next week, but I still doubt conditions will be good enough for a stronger storm.

[gatorcane]

Development starts on the 12Z Euro on day 4 in the BOC, so it is bringing the timeframe in. the 12Z CMC also shows development starting then in the BOC just moves it inland so it can't bomb it out.

The NAVGEM shows something too in the Western Gulf but not as strong as the ECMWF or CMC.

[stormlover2013]

this has been 7 straight days by the euro showing this, and heck euro could be wrong no doubt but I mean its the gulf we all know how the gulf is when a llc develops it blows up storms that get close to the coast

[wxman57]

this has been 7 straight days by the euro showing this, and heck euro could be wrong no doubt but I mean its the gulf we all know how the gulf is when a llc develops it blows up storms that get close to the coast

Not exactly, the 00Z run last evening had no storm.

[Hammy]

Development starts on the 12Z Euro on day 4 in the BOC, so it is bringing the timeframe in. the 12Z CMC also shows development starting then in the BOC just moves it inland so it can't bomb it out.

The NAVGEM shows something too in the Western Gulf but not as strong as the ECMWF or CMC.

So if the Euro is agreeing with NAVGEM/CMC should we go with the GFS in that case?