#844 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 24, 2016 1:25 pm
gatorcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:AJC3 wrote:
You have that backwards. Several runs of the GFS had 99L becoming a sub-940MB low near or over the Bahamas well out past day 7, while the Euro showed squadoosh. Eventually they flip-flopped as the tracks shifted south toward and through the Florida straits - the ECM showed a much stronger system in the eastern GOMEX while the GFS trended much weaker.
I was just looking back at the pre-99L pouch thread and the 99L/pre-Hermine model thread. Although the Euro had 2 runs (8/14-15 runs) with a TC in/near the L.A.'s (one a H) even before the GFS had a TC on any run in that area, the Euro then went on to drop TC development for good in that area and didn't develop it at all for a number of days of runs afterward. Otoh, the GFS started developing it near or east of the L.A.'s right after the Euro dropped it though this was only for a couple of runs. Then neither developed it for several days. Then the GFS starting around 8/18 to have a number of runs developing it with several doing so near 50-55W and giving the L.A.'s a TS. Some of these GFS runs at high res had sub 940's off the SE coast per what AJC said with one at 907 and another at 904 while the Euro had nothing! The Euro easily outperformed the GFS overall during these early stages. Also, these GFS runs turned out to be way too east likely due to showing a TC way too early.
Related to this, look at this 8/19 post from Tolakram:
viewtopic.php?p=2520178#p2520178
well that is interesting and thanks for the correction AJC3 and LarryWx. Maybe the GFS CAT 5 model storm is just that - a model storm.
Gator, you're welcome. I made a second post about the 904 and 907 my runs before I saw you posted this reply. Anyway, it isn't easy to remember. So, I had to go back into the threads to remind myself. Even though the Euro did far better overall in the early stages, I was surprised to find that the Euro had two runs with a TC even before the GFS as I stated in the other post! So, technically, the Euro was initially worse.
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