Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[chaser1]

Icon has middle tx coast anyone have ukmet yet

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.6N 93.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2018 96 28.6N 93.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 06.09.2018 108 28.9N 94.0W 1007 34
1200UTC 06.09.2018 120 28.9N 95.4W 1004 38
0000UTC 07.09.2018 132 28.1N 96.8W 999 39
1200UTC 07.09.2018 144 27.2N 98.4W 994 34

Just to be objective however, the UK seems a good deal less enthusiastic then the EURO in terms of any near term development. I'm guessing that the EURO 12Z today will be a bit less enthusiastic on nearer term 500mb vorticity. Other thing i'm wondering about is whether (or how much) the westward rambling cut-off to its west might play into a more Northwest track then WNW?

[gatorcane]

It does have “that look.” I think NHC will have to tag this soon and development chances should be on the increase. Let’s hope shear keeps in check in the Bahamas. There is a lot of very warm water between where this invest is and Southern Florida.

[chaser1]

Not even gonna edit my above statement lol?! After posting it immediately occurred to me that the sharp trough abutting the disturbance isn't even close to being cut off, but a sharp trough instead. Whether that feature will cut off and continue to move west in tandem with the developing Gulf system was more where my thought was going there. I think a more likely scenario might just be for the trough to eventually fill, and/or a smaller cut off drop to the southwest (which ultimately could further aid downstream upper divergence).

[Evil Jeremy]

It does have “that look.” I think NHC will have to tag this soon and development chances should be on the increase. Let’s hope shear keeps in check in the Bahamas. There is a lot of very warm water between where this invest is and Southern Florida.

Kudos to the ECMWF on picking up on this over a week ago before any other model. It nailed the location as it showed it moving through Southern Florida or being located just east of Florida.

In almost any other situation, with a wave starting to churn just north of DR, and 48 hours of fueling waters until Florida, there would be legitimate reason to be concerned. Our luck may be someone else's misfortune however. I guess the NHC does give this a 10% shot of developing before Florida, and I believe the 00z ECMWF ensembles gave about a 20% shot. We're in for a rain-soaked monday, regardless of a closed low.

[lrak]

UKMET is on board with a TS and that is very important to have this model bullish.

It’s paying lrak a visit on that run.

I was in the GOM disturbance thread and played with models for a while and saw something turn SW. So I jumped to this thread and now I'm paying attention.

[SoupBone]

IMHO this might have the potential to blow up in the GOM now that shear looks to be weaker. If you look at satellite currently it looks like it is trying to wrap up some. It is doing a good job of this for now. Getting an eerie feeling about this one.

Shear, in its current state (make sure I add that disclaimer) , has actually expanded west into the GoM as of the last several hours.

[Aric Dunn]

nice sharp wave axis and a well-defined mid level vorticity. a little more sustained convection and it would not take much to spin up a surface circ.

[tarheelprogrammer]

IMHO this might have the potential to blow up in the GOM now that shear looks to be weaker. If you look at satellite currently it looks like it is trying to wrap up some. It is doing a good job of this for now. Getting an eerie feeling about this one.

Shear, in its current state (make sure I add that disclaimer) , has actually expanded west into the GoM as of the last several hours.

Is it not moving west in tandem with ULL?

[SoupBone]

IMHO this might have the potential to blow up in the GOM now that shear looks to be weaker. If you look at satellite currently it looks like it is trying to wrap up some. It is doing a good job of this for now. Getting an eerie feeling about this one.

Shear, in its current state (make sure I add that disclaimer) , has actually expanded west into the GoM as of the last several hours.

Is it not moving west in tandem with ULL?

This is the previous 3 hours for reference. I think it is moving along with it. If you go back over the last several days, it's increased in that area over the Eastern GoM. But as it's always noted, these are current conditions, subject to change.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located about a couple of hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands.

Cloudiness and showers over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas have increased a little bit today. This
activity is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to spread
westward across the remainder of the Bahamas this weekend, and move
across southern Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early
next week. Surface pressures are not falling at this time, and
development is not anticipated during the next day or two.
Environmental conditions, however, are forecast to become a little
more favorable for a surface low pressure area to form when the
disturbance moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Aric Dunn]

IMHO this might have the potential to blow up in the GOM now that shear looks to be weaker. If you look at satellite currently it looks like it is trying to wrap up some. It is doing a good job of this for now. Getting an eerie feeling about this one.

Shear, in its current state (make sure I add that disclaimer) , has actually expanded west into the GoM as of the last several hours.

the shear axis is forecast to continue to shift west and weaken. just in the last 12 hours the shear in the Bahamas has dropped by nearly half and continues to. however, in this case, the shear is highly divergent and is helping the system.

00z.

Now

[Steve]

Come on EC. I want to take a nap. JMA doesn’t show much. Similar track to EC 00z but weaker. FV3 GFS also doesn’t show much. It’s got a weak TS moving about the same as the GFS old. I think it may be the outlier as someone noted a couple of pages ago.

[BobHarlem]

Come on EC. I want to take a nap. JMA doesn’t show much. Similar track to EC 00z but weaker. FV3 GFS also doesn’t show much. It’s got a weak TS moving about the same as the GFS old. I think it may be the outlier as someone noted a couple of pages ago.

The first frame (24h) is already coming in stronger, hope this ins't a trend.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 48hrs, closed low just over Key West...

[cycloneye]

48 hours closed low.

[Clearcloudz]

Another difference from the 00Z to 12Z on the ECMWF is the wave is much faster crossing the keys at hour 48

[Aric Dunn]

I mean in as little as 24hrs the Euro is very close to closing off. the Euro essentially goes from what it is now to rapid development in the next 24 to 36 hours.

[SoupBone]

Anyone see the speed? It looks to be moving quickly from 48 to the 72 hour mark.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro has a hurricane in the eastern gulf..

[Clearcloudz]

Hour 72 faster and stronger than the 00Z run