2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Hurricaneman]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

The NY post headline says 9 Hs could hit the US in 2019 vs the record high of 7 (1886) back to 1851. So, this deserves two of these:

Could happen but I wouldn’t bet my life on it

[LarryWx]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

The NY post headline says 9 Hs could hit the US in 2019 vs the record high of 7 (1886) back to 1851. So, this deserves two of these:

Could happen but I wouldn’t bet my life on it

Well, true. I guess the key word is "could". For that matter, Tampa "could" get a foot of snow next winter. The sensationalizing in the way the headline is worded is ridiculous.

[wxman57]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

The NY post headline says 9 Hs could hit the US in 2019 vs the record high of 7 (1886) back to 1851. So, this deserves two of these:

Could happen but I wouldn’t bet my life on it

I'm sure that's based solely upon the new NOAA outlook that says "5-9 hurricanes" could form in 2019. That range includes a forecast (7) plus one standard deviation above and below (7 and 9). Seems like more than one SD, though. Must be rounded to the nearest whole numbers. If you assume that up to 9 hurricanes could form, then it is possible, though highly unlikely, that they could all hit the U.S.

[toad strangler]

lol @ the NY Post getting much attention. NY post is great for two things.

1. Sports
2. Gossip

And in that order

[wxman57]

If you look at a longer range chart of the AMO, there are often pockets of cool years within an overall warm trend. For example, there was a pronounced 2-3 year dip into negative values in the late 1940s during the last positive AMO. It returned to positive until the 1960s, before finally flipping to negative, and staying mostly negative until the mid 1990's. So, we could easily see a return to the positive AMO before it finally ends in another decade or so. Or, this could indeed be the end of the recent positive AMO... But if so, that would make the recent positive AMO shorter than the previous cycle by about a decade. Also, 2017 had an ACE of 225, which is not characteristic of cold AMO (as CyclonicFury pointed out)

Klotzbach & I have been debating the AMO status (still warm or transitioning to cool) for the past 6 years. I was on the side of the recent cooling being only temporary. Phil wasn't so sure - more seasons were needed to confirm. We've come to an agreement that there was a shift in 2013 to a cool AMO. There are active periods even in cool AMO cycles, particularly during the transition years. It would be a relatively short warm AMO, but we've never seen such a long period of cool AMO during the previous warm cycles. During a cool cycle, there isn't necessarily a drop-off in numbers, but there is a decline in stronger hurricanes. We saw that last season, with only 2 majors forming. Will that continue? I think it will this year.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1161128465409695746

[LarryWx]

The NY post headline says 9 Hs could hit the US in 2019 vs the record high of 7 (1886) back to 1851. So, this deserves two of these:

Could happen but I wouldn’t bet my life on it

I'm sure that's based solely upon the new NOAA outlook that says "5-9 hurricanes" could form in 2019. That range includes a forecast (7) plus one standard deviation above and below (7 and 9). Seems like more than one SD, though. Must be rounded to the nearest whole numbers. If you assume that up to 9 hurricanes could form, then it is possible, though highly unlikely, that they could all hit the U.S.

Highly unlikely is putting it mildly. With 7 being the highest in nearly 170 years, it wouldn’t surprise me if 9 H hits on the US (including PR/Virgin Islands) is a once in 500 or so year event. Furthermore, it wouldn’t surprise me if 9 US H hits from a season with exactly 9 Hs (every H hits the US) is a once in 2,000 or so year event. So, the headline is so uncalled for.

[SFLcane]

Quite frankly even if stability and dry air were not an issue right now the basin is just as ugly as it gets for aug in terms of development.

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1161218258822991873

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1161263504004911104

[abajan]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

The text of the URL is the most fake of all: "... us-could-be-hit-with-9-major-hurricanes-this-year-experts-say"

Nine (9) major hurricanes? Seriously?!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161257846001901569

[SFLcane]

No hurricanes to take advantage of this pattern as of yet..

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161276469076643840

[SFLcane]

Again...Would be a problem for the SE if things turn active in the coming weeks.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1161276014368047104

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1161282329781972992

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1161256692006260736




Hourly reminder that it is still too soon to season cancel

[StruThiO]

cut tweet

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1161284760871821314

[SFLcane]

See you in September per Mr. Ortt...

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161314395647033344

[toad strangler]

See you in September per Mr. Ortt...

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161314395647033344

I think that has been what most of us have been expecting.

[LarryWx]

See you in September per Mr. Ortt...

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161314395647033344

No August Atlantic TCs would be a rare accomplishment but far from unprecedented. During the satellite era, it has occurred in 3% of seasons: 1997 and 1961.

Keep in mind that there's still a very long way to go still. Almost every season of the 2000s has had at least one TC genesis within 8/21-31. Actually, only 2000 had none!

[Hurricaneman]

For those canceling the season, we are currently in mjo phase 5 which is highly unfavorable with sinking air in the basin but by the 25th or so it seems the GFS goes to phase 2 while the Euro goes to phases 1 and 2 which would mean we could have more activity and wouldn’t be surprised if we have 5 or more named storms in September and with the predicted 500mb pattern it could be quite dangerous